Tag: El Niño

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Economics WDYT

[2976] Guess the 2Q23 Malaysian GDP growth

The second quarter GDP for Malaysia will be published tomorrow, at noon Malaysian time.

As a reminder, the first quarter economy grew by 5.6% year-on-year. That was a surprisingly resilient quarter, despite deceleration in growth.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy expand in 2Q23 from a year ago?

  • 2% or slower (8%, 1 Votes)
  • 2.1%-3.0% (38%, 5 Votes)
  • 3.1%-4.0% (23%, 3 Votes)
  • 4.1%-5.0% (23%, 3 Votes)
  • 5.1%-6.0% (8%, 1 Votes)
  • Faster than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 13

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All available statistics point towards a second quarter slowdown. Export numbers during the quarter have been horrible, and the country’s industrial output, given how Malaysia is an small, open economy, has not been doing well either.

Part of the reason why the decline in exports and industrial output is due to the extraordinary post-lockdown growth, amid severe supply chain complications: that created an extremely high base effect and that effect will likely persist until the third quarter.

But that should distract us from the ongoing global growth slowdown. Europe is in recession and China is in trouble. The only real bright spot is the US, which is surprising because much, much earlier, many had expected the country to go into a recession.

But the US strength itself is causing troubles elsewhere in the form of capital outflows and foreign exchange volatility, since it gives more room for the Fed to raise rates. The end of the hike cycle keeps getting delayed.

The good news is that the domestic labor market remains solid, and there has been a little bit more medium-term direction given out by this government. The political heat has come down a bit after the recent state elections, which hopefully, will convince the government to shift more attention towards the economy, and other nation-building exercise.

And challenges in the next several quarters will not be small. Next in the list is a strong El Nino phenomenon, resulting, very likely, the hottest season we will go through yet. That will require a little bit of preparation: water supply, electricity transmission, manufacturing inputs, health services, firefighting services, etc.

And I pray there will be no forest fire and haze this time around.

Categories
Environment

[1028] Of 2006 top Malaysian environmental issues

With a little over 24 hours before 2006 comes to a close, let us revisit all the green issues mentioned in two other entries — entry [775] and [879]:

  1. Smelly tap water in the Klang Valley in February. Not just smelly, it smelled like shit. The smell was caused by ammonia released from several improperly managed landfills. The landfills later were shut down, at least, according to reports. See [756].
  2. The tabling of the Water Services Industry Bill in April. Proposed death penalty to polluters. See [765].
  3. With the shut down of landfills, a related problem ensued: shortage of landfills in April too. See [775].
  4. Big flood in the northern states early in the year. See [775].
  5. Flash flood in Shah Alam. Local residents were positively angry. See [775].
  6. Deforestation in various states. TV3 played an active role in informing the public. See [709] and [720].
  7. The Malaysian Nature Society’s Save Belum-Temengor campaign. See [885]
  8. The drive towards biofuel. See [775].
  9. Proposed mega palm oil estate by Indonesia on Borneo. It affects Malaysia because, well, it would be on the border. See [775].
  10. Proposed nuclear energy for Malaysia. See [775].
  11. Bird flu. See [775].
  12. Landslide at Genting Highlands. See [775].
  13. Damage to Sipadan coral reef in May. The accident forced the Sabah state government to halt construction of a huge facility at Sipadan after coming under attack from the public. See [791].
  14. Metal smelter in Bakun. See [879].
  15. Cancellation of Broga incinerator. See [879].
  16. Haze. And yeah, I told you so. See [879].
  17. In practical terms, the extinction of leatherback turtle in Malaysia. See [855].
  18. Sustainable forestry program. See [853].
  19. Congestion tax in Kuala Lumpur in August. It came back in December after the Kuala Lumpur mayor made a comment on it. This is a progressive policy but the public transportation system must be improved first. See [854].
  20. Growing rhinoceros population in Borneo. See [879].

That is a compilation of issues that started between January and some time in September 2006, inclusively. But of course, a year does not end in September and so, the complication continues.

  1. El Niño is officially back in September. See [883] and [886].
  2. The hunt for a killer crocodile in October. The act of revenge turn for the worse and became a merciless culling of crocodiles. The effort was criticized by greens and the culling immediately stopped in October. See [896].
  3. Temporary ban lift on commercial usage of paraquat. Something smell fishy. See [897].
  4. Legalization of turtle eggs collection by Terengganu state government in October. See [912].
  5. 300MV coal power plant in Sabah, as reported in November. See [975].
  6. New Orleans of Malaysia. See [1018].
  7. And perhaps, finally, after all these years, climate change. See [1017].

Will 2007 be a better year? Will the haze return?

Stay alive and find out next year.

Categories
Environment

[1012] Of is the record rainfall in Johor part of a larger trend?

According to news, Johor is practically under water after receiving above average rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Singapore wasn’t spare either. Record breaking could be use to describe the rainfall in Johor and Singapore.

Bloomberg reports:

Out of 31 monitoring stations in Johor, 24 recorded “very heavy” rainfall of more than 60 millimeters yesterday, according to the Department of Irrigation and Drainage’s Web site. The highest rainfall of 289 millimeters was recorded in Johor Baru.

The Star reports that in Johor, nearly 30,000 people have been evacuated…

MUAR: Nearly 30,000 people have been evacuated in Johor following the extraordinary heavy rainfall over the past three days, Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman said.

…while Singapore suffered the worst rainfall in 75 years:

SINGAPORE: Singapore on Tuesday was hit by the third highest rainfall recorded in 75 years.

The 24-hour rainfall recorded was 366 mm.

About a year ago, northern Malaysian states along with southern Thai states suffered record breaking rainfall that caused massive flood. China, Japan and Vietnam each suffer their own record breaking snow and rainfall. Keep in mind while that occurred, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active seasons in recorded history. In An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore said “…Japan reported a record number of typhoons“.

The historic disaster in Johor makes me think, is it possible to link it to climate change?

The world is currently experiencing El Niño and El Niño is supposed to bring less rainfall to Southeast Asia on average, not more. If it’s true that climate change should cause more rainfall in this part of the world, and if it’s true that El Niño had actually reduced the amount of rainfall in Southeast Asia, imagine what it would be like if there were no El Niño.

In Malaysia, the mainstream society never really gives the issue of climate change a thought. We’re too pre-occupied with moral policing, religion, ethnicity and other trivial things appeal to our inferiority complex that do nothing to solve real pressing issues like the economy, education and the environment. It’s time for us to at least pay a little more attention to the environment and investigate the possible link between extreme natural climatic disasters that are hitting us year by year lately with a global trend that is climate change.