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Books & printed materials Conflict & disaster History & heritage Politics & government

[3005] Reading Revolutionary Iran, or an appreciation for glossary

My readings could be driven by current affairs. That was the reason I picked up Rashid Khalidi’s The Hundred Years’ War on Palestine. And that was the reason I recently read Michael Axworthy’s Revolutionary Iran: the Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel had just concluded. These books always remind us that there is almost always a long history behind contemporary events. Things very rarely just happened on a day.

Revolutionary Iran, first published in 2013, focuses on the 1979 Iranian Revolution. But it also covers a hundred years’ worth of history, starting from the early 20th century (with the fall of Qajar Iran and the rise of the Pahlavi dynasty) up to the controversial 2011 Iranian presidential election. The long sweep of history is written up all with the aim of setting the revolution in its proper context.

As with any kind of similar books (such as much thicker and expansive The End of Empire and the Making of Malaya), the breadth and depth of the discussion are a challenge to casual readers equipped with only general knowledge of the country: there are just too many names, too many years and too many events to remember and make relevant to the whole exercise. These names and events are all interrelated, making reading Revolutionary Iran complicated. One could get lost along the way. That could cause frustration and eventually DNF: ‘did not finish’. The phone is always ready to dumb us down with social media, ever jealous of any of us perusing long-form materials.

The complexity reminds me just how useful a glossary and an index could be. It kept the story in my head straight while going through the pages of Revolutionary Iran.

Referring the glossary and the index could be a pain. Flipping pages back and forth is disruptive to reading flow. It is almost like reading while consulting a dictionary or an encyclopedia at the same time. It almost feels like reading Wikipedia with all of its hyperlinks could have been a more enjoyable endeavor.

But reading Wikipedia has its own pitfalls. Those hyperlinks are rabbit holes to be explored. With an undisciplined mind, one could easily end up reading about Kurdish nationalism or the history of Azerbaijan all of which may have some relevance to the events of 1979, but does not assist us in understanding the nuances of the Iranian revolution any better. Wikipedia’s hyperlinks could provide context, but an overload of information could also drown out of the context. Some who wander are lost.

So, a book, unlike Wikipedia, is a guided tour. It keeps the fluff out by focusing and contextualising the essentials. It is the model-building tool. And the glossary and the index, often forgotten, are little manuals useful if the reader needs help along the way.

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Books & printed materials Conflict & disaster Politics & government

[3002] Reading George Orwell’s Homage to Catalonia or… “Nak PN ke?”

I suppose if we are intent on finding similarities between two events however different they are, we would find it one way or another. Some of us are wired to find patterns or connections, even where none exists. A cat in the clouds that sort of things. Apophenia.

I kept telling myself that while reading George Orwell’s Homage to Catalonia recently. However I tried adjusting down my pattern-finding bias, my mind kept on returning to contemporary Malaysian politics each time Orwell describes the republican politics of the late 1930s Spanish Civil War. As I opened Wikipedia to understand the war through a wider lens, I thought, indeed, there was a lesson, or two, from Spain for Malaysia.By Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved.

The differences between the 1920s/1930s Spain and the 2010/2020s Malaysia are aplenty. Spain experienced multiple military coups during those decades that makes Thailand a more appropriate comparison instead of Malaysia. And the Spanish conflict was bloodier than what Malaysia underwent in the 2010s and 2020s: our currently political conflicts are more boring when compared to the Spanish passion of the interwar period.

But if the Spanish Civil war was to be stripped of its details and the conflict made general, there are parallels to the today’s Malaysian reality. And the parallel is this: by the 1920s, support for the traditional powers—that is the monarchy along with the religious Christian class—was in rapid decline (within Malaysian context, throughout the 2000s and the 2010s, traditional power holders in the form of Umno suffered sustained severe erosion of support). So much so that by 1931, the king fled country over rising republican influence. Soon, the Second Spanish Republic was established (again here within Malaysian context, that runs parallel to the election of Pakatan Harapan as the federal government in 2018).

The Republic went through some difficulties right from the beginning. The traditionalists were feeling the heat of radical reforms. Land redistribution and restrictions imposed on the Church from owning properties were proceeding rapidly and pushing the traditionalists out of power further. Meanwhile, weak official responses to certain events that favored the traditionalists left republican supporters thinking the government was betraying them. All this took place with the Great Depression happening in the background. Times were just tough for almost everybody. This feels all too familiar for the 2020 Malaysia.

For the 1930s Spain, the political tensions eventually boxed everybody into an armed conflict. One on side was the republican government supported by the communists, the anarchists and the liberals, who are largely urban dwellers supported by the Soviet Union and Mexico. On the other side were the nationalist rebels comprising the monarchists, Christian conservatives and a group of fascists. By and large, the nationalists were rural folks backed by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy.

Of interest is here the divisions within the republican ranks, which is one of two main subjects of Homage to Catalonia (the other being war conditions experienced by Orwell). By 1937, a year after the civil war officially began, republican politics was becoming immensely complex but it could be generalized as a competition between the anarchists and the communists. While there was a republican government at the national level, various institutions and cities were controlled by different factions of the republican supporters, with the anarchists and the communists being the more influential factions.

The anarchists wanted a revolution in the sense that workers would control the means of production. The communists wanted those means controlled by the state. The rivalry created a civil war within a civil war, which the communists won and purged the anarchists from government (while I am in no way stating that Rafizi Ramli is an anarchist, the leading-PH party PKR did push Rafizi aside). That communist victory was irrelevant however. So weak was the government from infighting that they eventually succumbed to the fascist rebellion led by Francisco Franco, who would hold on to power for the next 40 years.

Orwell, who was fighting for the Spanish republic with the anarchists, saw the purging as a betrayal, which is perhaps the same feeling many Pakatan Harapan supporters currently feel of the current government. In fact, Orwell writes several pages about being disillusioned, which again, a feeling that appears to be widespread about Pakatan Harapan supporters.

Yes, he felt betrayed but the realist him wrote something for the disillusioned:

As for the newspaper talk about this being a ‘war for democracy’, it was plain eyewash. No one in his senses supposed that there was any hope for democracy, even as we understand it in England or France, in a country so divided and exhausted as Spain would be when the war was over. It would have to be a dictatorship, and it was clear that the chance of a working-class dictatorship had passed. That meant that the general movement would be in the direction of some kind of Fascism. Fascism called, no doubt, by some politer name, and—because this was Spain—more human and less efficient than the German or Italian varieties. The only alternatives were an infinitely worse dictatorship by Franco…

Whichever way you took it it was a depressing outlook. But it did not follow that the Government was not worth fighting for as against the more naked and developed Fascism of Franco and Hitler. Whatever faults the post-war Government might have, Franco’s regime would certainly be worse. [George Orwell. Homage to Catalonia. 1938]

In other words, “Nak PN ke?”

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Conflict & disaster

[2997] The broken city walls of Mandalay

All countries are beautiful in their own way and Myanmar is a beautiful country indeed.

When the country just emerged out of its isolationist cocoon and optimism was sweeping through its population in the early 2010s, I had the opportunity to witness the liberalization of Myanmar firsthand by travelling approximately 2,000km for about 3 weeks from Yangon to Mandalay by buses, trains, cars, motorbikes and boats. What surprised me at first back then was that Yangon did not strike me as a particularly poor city. It seemed the democratic dividend was paying off.

But as with most countries, the reality in the capital does not always reflect that of the whole country. Kuala Lumpur feels and looks like an advanced ultramodern economy when taken out of context of the whole of Malaysia.

There is beauty in urbanity but it was the slow progress of modernity in the 2010s that made the country beautiful. Beyond the limits of Yangon within its glittering Shwedagon Pagoda and a confusing mix of brand new right-hand and left-hand drive vehicles on the road all at once, life was slower. The old ways still held fort. When I reached the famed romanticized city of Mandalay after a long train ride sitting next to a Buddhist monk, I felt I was entering a different country.

Myanmar has since slided back. The Rohingya crisis has made the country less popular in the region. Democratic progress has been rolled back. Civil war has taken hold. When I found myself travelling in northern Thailand recently, driving along the Myanmar border, Thai troops maintained high alert, stopping everybody with no exception to ensure that the situation remained safe on this side of the world. On the back of the range that divides Thailand from Myanmar, I could spy deep into the Shan state. Things were quiet and they gave no clue of the raging civil war happening far across the mountains.

Somewhere in Sagaing across the Irrawaddy river from Mandalay (I cannot recall the location exactly now but I think it was in Sagaing), there was a large cuboid temple standing 40 to 50 meters tall. The temple had a large crack running from the top to the bottom caused by an earthquake during pre-colonial times. Back then as I stood in wonder of the crack, that earthquake was an academic curiosity.

A strong earthquake has struck Mandalay this week and pictures of devastation are coming out online. Bridges have collapsed. Pagodas cracked and crumbled. Houses gone. Parts of the old city walls now suffer from gashes. I have been to some of those places and it breaks my heart to see them in such devastation.

I hope we Malaysians will help Myanmar even in our current state of politics where racism, xenophobia and general meanness is on the rise. Malaysia is the chair of Asean this year and Asean has failed the people of Myanmar in so many ways. This is a chance to redeem ourselves from all those failures, even if the window is only for partial redemption.

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Books & printed materials Conflict & disaster

[2995] Reading The Lady from Tel Aviv

Rashid Khalidi’s The Hundred Years’ War on Palestine was the first in a set of books I bought and read during the height of Israel’s latest aggression against Palestine. Khalidi’s work turned out to be the authoritative must-read book of the year and it reframed things I thought I knew about the Israel-Palestine conflict from before. A mixture of personal and national history, the book helps me understand the messy Israeli-Palestinian history easier, compared to the effort of going through Wikipedia’s voluminous and even messier entries.

Khalidi’s is excellent but non-fictions sometimes are unable to capture certain aspects of the real world. Over the years, I have discovered that the work of fiction can close the gap. So, I went on another spending spree purchasing a few Palestine-linked literature. One that I actually read (as opposed to being left on my shelf) was Rabai Al-Madhoun’s translated work The Lady from Tel Aviv. Originally written and published in Arabic in 2009, The Lady was translated by Elliott Colla into English and then republished a year later.

In summary, The Lady is a story about a Palestinian exile’s return to Gaza post-the Second Intifada. The book appears to a semi-autobiography of the author. The three layers of reality governing the story suggest as much: the author Al-Madhoun (a journalist himself) has his exiled journalist protagonist as an author working on a homecoming novel.

For quite a heavy subject, The Lady is a light reading. So light that I feel the novel could do with more details. The book skims the surface regarding the mistreatment Palestinians faced by Israeli occupying forces, the corruption of the Palestinian Authority and the general conflict between Fatah and Hamas. It is a picture of hopelessness that Gazans embrace as a way of life, that all the troubles they face are taken as given as stoics would.

Despite all the conflicts, corruptions and injustices, he does not explore any of them deep enough. He is content to have them mentioned and unexplored, taking it as a universal obvious truth unworthy of elaboration. And then there are loose ends left to the readers’ imagination. That I think is the most frustrating thing about The Lady.

But Al-Madhoun might be aware of this particular criticism even as he was writing the novel. In a scene where the lead character, the journalist, visits his blind childhood friend Muhammad (Abu Saber) for the first time in 40 years, who is now a poor beggar with nobody else to rely on:

I think I am going to leave. I shut my eyes, unable to keep looking at the shape Muhammad is in. This is an unrecognizably distorted copy of the boy whose friendship had lit up my childhood. Abu Hatem waits for me a short way off. I turn away so no one can see the tears in my eyes.

[…]

Abu Hatem turns the key in the ignition and Muhammad realizes I am about to go. He waves his cane around the air and screams so loudly it splits my heart. As we drive away, he calls out, “Who are you—you stranger who is not a stranger?”

[…]

“Why didn’t you tell Abu Saber who you were?” asks Abu Hatem. “You broke his heart—and mine too.”

“I couldn’t do it. It would have been worse had he known it was me. If he knew I saw him like that.

 

That makes me wonder whether the lack of details is just Al-Madhoun’s way to protecting the readers from the difficult reality in Gaza.

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Conflict & disaster Politics & government Society

[2984] A list of challenges for Malaysia

I have been thinking about how fragile Malaysia could be lately after remembering episodes when the country looked brittle. The 1965 breakup when Singapore became independent is an example but there are other times that fit the bill: the Emergency, the 1969 riots and possibly even the crises of the late 1990s.

With the world changing rapidly, I do not think the idea of Malaysia remaining as a country could be taken for granted. Whether we survive as a country depends on how we identify and navigate various challenges. These challenges do not necessarily lead to a national breakup, but could lead to the diminution of the country in terms of economics or prestige.

Many of these challenges are actually interlinked and solutions would have to be thought through multidisciplinary lens.

For my own benefits, I am listing down those challenges here:

  1. Territorial integrity.
    1. Loss of control over the waters of Sabah and Sarawak. This concern comes from China’s presence in the area. Unlike other Asean claimants, China is special due to its aggressiveness, expansive claims and refusal to abide by rules all Asean claimants largely adhere to. A significant loss of territory would involve a significant loss of petroleum revenue to all Malaysian parties, leaving revenue claims between the federal and state governments a moot point. And unlike Malaysia’s previous dispute with Singapore with respect to areas surrounding Pulau Batu Puteh, or with Indonesia with respect to the seas around Sipadan, the China trouble would likely involve the use of force and violence.
    2. The balkanization of Malaysia, with Sarawak and Sabah exiting the federation as having the highest probabilities. There has been growing secession calls based on years of unhappiness relating to unequal partnership between the federal government and the two states. One positive aspect from this is without the Borneo states, Malaysia would likely stop having serious disputes with China and that would free up the rump Malaysian state from a tricky geopolitical problem. But this would also mean that smaller Malaysia would lean towards China more.
  2. War in Asia-Pacific. A war that matters would likely involve China and the US. In this war, it would be hard to stay neutral.
  3. Foreign political influence in Malaysian society. Foreign influence is inevitable for a small, open and diverse country that Malaysia is, with a largely free and democratic environment. But with risks of international conflicts rising (prime examples include geopolitical rivalry between the China and US, wider conflict brought by Israel in the Middle East which would inflame sentiments in other parts of the world, war in the Taiwan Strait and conflicts involving non-state actors particular those relating to jihadist and adjacent groups), foreign actors would attempt to sway domestic public opinion, domestic elections and through that, political decisions that Malaysian national leadership make. There have been domestic corruption cases with links to foreign governments and high offices had been penetrated or compromised by foreign agents before. Additionally at the societal level, this could further reduce trust between ethnic groups who generally would be affected by certain international issues differently.
  4. Fragmentation of the global supply chain. This could go either way. Malaysia for the longest time has been deeply embedded in the global supply chain and this had brought the Malaysian industrial revolution of the 1970s-1990s. But it also caused the 2000s premature deindustrialization following China’s entry into the WTO in 2001. At the moment, Malaysia is benefiting from changes brought by heightened China-US rivalry (plus their respective allies) but the way Malaysia is handling it—playing both sides and creating an imperfect balance—might risk a blowback from one side or the other. We have already seen certain Malaysian companies slapped with sanctions by the US, which spells doom for those specific businesses. There are chances that Malaysia needs to choose which supply chain we want to participate in, and lose access in the other.
  5. Fiscal challenges. To address changes in the global economy and global politics (along with the retreat of the free trade consensus), the Malaysian state needs to have the necessary capacities and capabilities in various fields: education, health, defense, infrastructure, energy, various industries, etc. To develop and maintain those capacities and capabilities, the state must have the required fiscal firepower. But Malaysia has a weak-to-okay fiscal space owning to the federal government’s reluctance to address taxation issues decisively while facing growing decentralization demand along with rising expenditure requirements. This reluctance is primarily due to electoral considerations, and not so much the inability of the economy to generate such revenue. I would go as far as claiming that this fiscal challenges are partly the cause behind Malaysia’s inadequate measures in tackling other challenges cited in this list. The longer the reluctance lasts, the harder it would be to address those many challenges as those challenges do grow over time.
  6. Decentralization among Malaysian states. Many have long sought decentralization away from Putrajaya as a means to provide check-and-balance to federal powers. But recent decentralization has brought several new challenges (and amplified preexisting ones) to a small country like Malaysia. There are at least four challenges from the top of my head.
    1. Loss of revenue for the federal government. This goes back to concerns over fiscal pressures the central government faces and from there on, national capacities and capabilities. This eventually would hurt the beneficiaries of decentralization as they likely would have to pay for the same services the federal government finances, but possibly without the benefits of economies of scale.
    2. Loss of capacity caused by transfer of authority of specific issues. This depends on the power and not all transfers are negative nationally.
    3. Loss of policy cohesiveness which challenges the central authority to improve certain areas such as energy security. In other words, policies would likely see fragmentation. But again, this depends on the fields. Some fields may benefit from diversity of solutions but some others, not. I fear for many policymakers especially at the state level, they lack the competencies to see such a thing.
    4. The loss of Malaysian customs union, specifically, tax-based taxes that discourage national trade and weakens the common market. This is a threat for overall national economic growth as it would be a drag on trade growth.
    5. Weakening of the Malaysian identity, hence the loss of societal cohesiveness and further erosion to social capital.
  7. Climate change. Malaysia will require investment and spending to adapt to the new reality of climate change. These investments and spending include infrastructural like sea barriers, fresh water supply, shift of energy use, electrification and spending such as compensation for maintenance of forest cover, tree planting as well as expenditure to raise the capacity of health and emergency services. Without the necessary fiscal power, Malaysia would likely not able to mitigate some of the effects of climate change, and/or adapt as well as we need to be. This would likely need further expansion.
  8. Ageing society. Malaysia still has a young workforce, with the overall population median age at 30 years old but the situation will change in the next 20-30 years.
    1. This will require investment in health facilities made in the near future, which is dependent on the government’s fiscal strength. There is the private sector of course but it is unlikely to provide a comprehensive coverage at an affordable cost to the public that a universal public system could.
    2. The lack of a universal safety net will be a problem.
    3. An ageing society also would demand greater labor force likely through migration if the country is to grow economically further.
    4. Economic growth in such a demography would likely be weak, which raises the likelihood of social instability, given Malaysia’s low social capital that would work better with high economic growth.
    5. Pension crisis. This specifically about the government civil service’s pension through KWAP. Currently, there is a large liability gap and it is unclear it would ever be covered under business-as-usual scenario.
  9. Youth unemployment/underemployment and the danger of a growing underclass. One worrying trend is the demand for instant gratification by young adults in the form of reluctance to investment in education. They are attracted to the gig economy and they rationalize so by stating current gig income is more lucrative than going into debt for tertiary education. However in 10 to 20 years, these groups of youth would likely find themselves as an underclass as their real income stagnant and left behind by those with tertiary education rises, whose premium over those without would likely widen. The assumption of wage stagnancy for gig workers understates the problem: how would they compete with AI driven gig services? This kind of mass joblessness would create future social instability, especially as the society ages and relies on the young for tax revenue needed to fund societal needs.
  10. Political dynastic rivalry. Malaysia has only recently become a competitive democracy and we are beginning to see political dynastic rivalries that fall neatly along partisan division. There is a danger the rivalry becomes a zero-sum game as losers get prosecuted and winners get everything. In such a case, the losers would not necessarily go away peacefully or let go out power when they should. This could easily turn into a chaotic and violent equilibrium that has been witnessed in other countries.
  11. Race and religion. This is intertwined with political dynastic rivalry, but also dependent on economic growth. A weak growth along would likely raise the temperature as far as race and religion is concerned. I also think this is just a proxy to the low social capital that Malaysia has. This risk has proven to be an effective tool at derailing reforms needed to address multiple other challenges.
  12. Technological change. This is a wildcard because we do not really know how it would affect Malaysia. We still do not have a clear idea how 5G would change our lives (the way in the 1990s, we only had a vague idea how the internet would change everything). And even with AI is all the rage now, we still do not have a clear idea how it would change everything that we do. Malaysia could either ride the wave or miss the boat.
  13. Growing rich before growing old. Malaysia aims to be a high-income economy soon. Although definitionally it is easy to achieve, it might be harder to do so in a more substantive manner. It is also a race against other economies: recently China has passed Malaysia in terms of GDP per capita, which shows Malaysia is starting to fall behind.
  14. Immigration/refugee crisis. There are severe crises all around the world and the closest one is happening in Myanmar. Large waves of refugees could overwhelm the Malaysian system, which is already suffering from insufficient funding.

I would likely expand this later by putting them in timeline (to describe urgency), rough likelihood of these things happening and the degree/intensity of each problem.