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[3010] Reviewing Abundance and thinking about the abundance agenda

One of the central themes of The End of the Nineteen-Nineties (by yours truly) is that a robust and widely shared economic growth is a prerequisite to Malaysia’s civic nationalism that comes in the form of Bangsa Malaysia. I argue that the loss of growth momentum caused by the late 1990s Asian Financial Crisis is the primary reason behind why civic nationalism is struggling to have itself centered in Malaysian politics. If you sympathize with the argument, then it is natural to buy into the overall abundance agenda.

Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson are two champions that have popularized the idea of abundance through their recent 2025 book Abundance.

However, Abundance is a US-centric work. Some parts of the book sound like a boosterism for the Biden agenda: build, build, build. The support for the CHIPS Act is apparent throughout the book.

If you are living and working in Asia, problems raised by Klein and Thompson such as reluctance to build more housing, slow renewable energy progress and the general weakness in infrastructure spending might sound like an alien concept. In this part of the world, infrastructure spending is something we have learned to take for granted. Oversupply and overcapacity are more the buzzwords than scarcity is.

Nothing highlights this more by the differing reactions to a recent clip of the US President convoy driving along a Malaysian highway during the recently concluded Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur: some US audience were amazed by various aspects of the highway while the Malaysian reactions included pride (thank you for noticing!), indifference (what’s the so special about the stretch road?) and smugness (welcome to the first world…). And this is just Malaysia, not China with its ultramodern out-of-this-world infrastructure and industrial might that is just hitting the ball out of the park.

Yet, the implications of Abundance have relevance to this part of the world too.

For one, policy priorities do change but change does not come easy. In fact, policy momentum often come in the way of new challenges. The authors go some length to explain why it is hard to build in the US: there was a time during the 1960s-1980s when development went too far that other concerns such as pollution, health and road safety were ignored. Since then, public pressures and court cases have put in place various legislations and bureaucracies to address these issues. These restrictions were relevant then, but they are now in the way of addressing new challenges. Example includes laws that used to restrict pollutions and preserve the environment are now preventing progress towards clean energy deployment that is necessary to combat climate change.

This can be true for Malaysia too in multiple areas. One area I can think of is Malaysia’s set of incentives, which a majority of them are geared towards the industries of the 1990s but not of the 2020s. Many of these incentives are now irrelevant but continued to be given by the government for various reasons, which is now taking resources for emerging concerns. Another policy is simply the petrol subsidy: we would like to push the country towards greater electrification but the subsidy is clearly in the way.

Another important lesson is that scarcity, oftentimes, is a choice. Sure, the physical world can only serves us so much but policies in many cases are the cause behind scarcity. Bringing the idea closer to home in Malaysia, our collective reluctance to raise taxes is the reason behind capacity and quality challenges we face in the health and education sectors. We choose the scarcity, and then we fight among ourselves to win stupid prize in that stupid games we created.

The greatest lesson perhaps is this: growth is not the only thing that matters but do not take it for granted. In fact, to put it more strongly, degrowth is not the way. This should be obvious with the various social pressures caused by deindustrialization faced by not just the US, but especially Europe. In Malaysia, for those still holding on to the idea of Bangsa Malaysia, growth is a must.

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Economics

[2988] Malaysia’s 2024 sweet spot for growth

After years of economic disruptions and wild growth swings, the Malaysian economy is now in a sweet spot. Strong GDP expansion rates in the past two quarters show us as much: 4.2% year-over-year in the first quarter and then 5.9% yoy in next. Lest somebody points to base effect playing a role (indeed the large variability is still a problem), adjusted quarter-over-quarter numbers are robust as well: 1.5% qoq during first and then 2.9% qoq in the second quarter. These qoq figures are respectable because the post-Covid-19 2021-2024 median qoq rate so far is 1.4%-1.5%.

The government is quick to claim credit. To some extent, it is deserving. The Malaysian government of all colors (2018-2020 PH, 2020-2021 PN-BN, 2021-2022 BN-PN and the current PH-BN-GPS) has been trying to capitalize on fraying global supply chain. Malaysia understood of the need to move quickly as early as 2019 (or possibly earlier). But political crisis (coupled with a health and economic crises) led to policy paralysis and that crisis only ended in 2022 with PH returning to power with unlikely partners. The stability plays an important role in sharpening the minds beyond domestic partisan survival, which allows us to pursue new tech investment opportunities and boost Malaysia’s role in the global manufacturing and technological services (it is not without concerns, especially with the influx of data centers which create little jobs and consume tremendous amount of water and electricity which could push out other manufacturing industries that are not necessarily low-tech).

But in some other ways, it is also about the stars aligning involving sectoral syncing and growth normalization. To understand this, we need to go back to 2020 when many parts of the world hunkered and locked down in response to the pandemic. Yes, the pandemic remains relevant four years after it spread.

The year 2020 was the ground zero, which everything in free fall. By 2021, the pandemic was still a concern but things were improving. Yet many could not move around freely. Services—a labor-intensive sector—had a weak growth and an incomplete recovery. In contrast, the goods sector experienced a surge and production surpassed pre-pandemic levels: XBox, IPhone and a whole lot of electronics were bought and sold to keep everybody sane at home. Afterwards when the economy opened up in 2022 with all the tangible stuff that could be bought were bought (notwithstanding orders unfulfilled due to the then supply chain disruption which kept the goods sector going), goods demand growth took a break in return for heightened services: tourism, restaurants and other related sectors boomed. That is more or less the story for Malaysia, as can be seen from the goods-services growth chart below:

Some rights reserved. Hafiz Noor Shams

The Malaysian cycle for goods and services almost synchronized at the top in 2022, which in return led to the synchronized whiplash a year later. From 8.9% growth in 2022 thanks to complete reopening of the economy, 2023 GDP rose by only 3.6%. The 2023 goods market was so bad and that was reflected in Malaysian industrial production and export figures. Only the almost complete tourism recovery helped the overall 2023 economy from doing worse.

What makes 2024 a sweet spot is that it is likely a proper normalization amid further synchronization. Normalization because the gyration of growth since 2020 is finally stabilizing for both sectors. Additionally, that normalization and stabilization are bringing balanced growth since both goods and services are expanding faster at the same time (so far).

Normalization, synchronization and balanced expansion. The government under Anwar Ibrahim has done well in adapting to changing global environment and lucky at the same time. Not only has growth been firm. Global prices have been kind to Malaysia as well, leaving inflation benign. Job creations are going well. In short, economic conditions are good. I would argue this leaves the government with a lot of leeway to commit to reforms.

The question now is if the great conditions brought by the cycles would persist. There is some hope (and bad news too) for that but we cannot run on hope that much this time around. With cyclical normalization from here on and definitely in 2025, the government would have to depend less on luck and more on its own initiatives.

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Economics WDYT

[2976] Guess the 2Q23 Malaysian GDP growth

The second quarter GDP for Malaysia will be published tomorrow, at noon Malaysian time.

As a reminder, the first quarter economy grew by 5.6% year-on-year. That was a surprisingly resilient quarter, despite deceleration in growth.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy expand in 2Q23 from a year ago?

  • 2% or slower (8%, 1 Votes)
  • 2.1%-3.0% (38%, 5 Votes)
  • 3.1%-4.0% (23%, 3 Votes)
  • 4.1%-5.0% (23%, 3 Votes)
  • 5.1%-6.0% (8%, 1 Votes)
  • Faster than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 13

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All available statistics point towards a second quarter slowdown. Export numbers during the quarter have been horrible, and the country’s industrial output, given how Malaysia is an small, open economy, has not been doing well either.

Part of the reason why the decline in exports and industrial output is due to the extraordinary post-lockdown growth, amid severe supply chain complications: that created an extremely high base effect and that effect will likely persist until the third quarter.

But that should distract us from the ongoing global growth slowdown. Europe is in recession and China is in trouble. The only real bright spot is the US, which is surprising because much, much earlier, many had expected the country to go into a recession.

But the US strength itself is causing troubles elsewhere in the form of capital outflows and foreign exchange volatility, since it gives more room for the Fed to raise rates. The end of the hike cycle keeps getting delayed.

The good news is that the domestic labor market remains solid, and there has been a little bit more medium-term direction given out by this government. The political heat has come down a bit after the recent state elections, which hopefully, will convince the government to shift more attention towards the economy, and other nation-building exercise.

And challenges in the next several quarters will not be small. Next in the list is a strong El Nino phenomenon, resulting, very likely, the hottest season we will go through yet. That will require a little bit of preparation: water supply, electricity transmission, manufacturing inputs, health services, firefighting services, etc.

And I pray there will be no forest fire and haze this time around.

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2964] Guess the 3Q22 Malaysian GDP growth

It is almost certain the third quarter growth will be massive as far as year-on-year calculations are concerned. Consensus compiled by Bloomberg has it at 12.1%. What do you think the number would be? The official figures will be released this Friday.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy expand in 3Q22 from a year ago?

  • Slower than 8.0% (64%, 7 Votes)
  • 8.0%-9.9% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 10.0%-11.9% (18%, 2 Votes)
  • 12.0%-13.9% (18%, 2 Votes)
  • 14.0% or faster (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 11

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Big as it will be, it will not inform us much about the state of the economy. At least, not by itself alone. So, do not be taken by it and read it with extra context.

It is important to remember what happened a year ago: the third quarter 2021 real GDP dropped by 4.5%, as shown in the chart below (in the same chart, you could see another instance of massive base effect in the second quarter of 2021, responding to the drop the year before).

One simple way to avoid the problem of base effect altogether is to look at quarter-on-quarter growth, and compare it with historical numbers.

For 2015-2019, quarter-on-quarter growth for the third quarter averaged around 3.5% (range: 3.1%-3.9%). Let us ignore 2020 and 2021 due to the usual circumstances those years represent. Since 2022 appears to be a more normal year (as far as normality is concerned, we could probably take the first quarter of this year as the beginning), 2015-2019 appear like a reasonable for casual comparison.

Now, if third quarter growth is indeed 12.1% year-on-year, then quarter-on-quarter growth would be 2.9%.

That 2.9% is below the quarter-on-quarter average of 3.5%, and misses the lower bound of 3.1% (see the second chart above). This also means, if the year-on-year growth figures is to be truly impressive, third quarter growth will have to be significantly higher than 12.1%. Maybe 13% or 14%. Else, it would be either bad, or normal at best.

The quarter-on-quarter growth is something to watch out for, especially at a time when the global economic outlook points toward recession in Europe and the US, along with a weak China. Ignore the year-on-year one for the time being.

Categories
Economics

[2629] Recent RGDP growth versus sort of long-run growth

The recent real GDP growth were considered strong given how expectations were low to start with. In fact, expectations have consistently been on the bearish side over the past quarters as actual growth, or rather the official government estimates, have beaten market expectations over and over again. In fact, real GDP growth for the first and the second quarter have been revised upward to 5.1% year-on-year and 5.6% year-on-year from 4.9% and 5.4% respectively, making the official growth numbers even farther away from market expectations. The first quarter number itself was originally reported as 4.7% in May 2012.

The bearish expectations have partly to do with pessimism in the global economy and how it may affect the Malaysian economy. The Eurozone was not doing enough and went into recession, the Chinese economy slowed down and recovery in the US just had not been fast enough. Malaysian trade and export figures, especially in the third quarter had not been convincing.

But the economy was estimated to have grown by 5.2% from a year ago in the third quarter despite problems abroad. The domestic economy powered through the dark clouds with what I think essentially was a de facto fiscal stimulus. From BRIM to bonuses for civil servants to Felda payment, it sounds like a fiscal stimulus to me, especially if one considers that consumption has been growing above and beyond its usual growth rate in the last two quarters.

But what if recent growth is compared a sort of long-run trend instead of expectations?

Recent growth becomes less impressive and more mundane.

The red line is the geometric mean of growth in all quarters (1Q2006 to 3Q2012) except those from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2010. The reasons these quarters were excepted was that there were outliers and geometric mean does not work well with negative numbers. The blue bars are real GDP growth in the respective quarters.

Why choose 2006 as the starting year? Well, The Department of Statistics produces the 2005 base series only up to 2005. I can make it longer well into 1957 but that will necessarily introduce a systematic error into the rebased pre-2005 figures and I do not want to do that.

Anyway, the geometric mean is approximately 5.6%.

So it appears that Malaysia is growing at its natural rate (maybe? natural rate is hard to discover but the long run trend I think is a good proxy. Also, it appears that the Malaysian economy is working near its limit although I have a lingering suspicion that the limit is farther out still), despite the estimates-expectations divergence.