Categories
Economics

[2531] PEMANDU and its real significance to private investment

PEMANDU claims “confidence from the ETP saw private investment hit RM94 billion and RM131 billion worth of GNI generated in 2011.”

A bold claim.

Let us see the trend of private investment in the last 11 years.

Do you see anything special about 2010 and 2011?

What I see is only a reversion to mean. What I see is that there is something in the economy that causes that. That something is bigger than PEMANDU.

Note also that in 2009, there was a severe recession. What that means is that there was a temporary disruption, and the subsequent recovery was just a reversion to mean (i.e. delayed investment planned before the recession, or just typical investment that happens as the economy goes along that requires no further incentive), not because of PEMANDU.

Yet PEMANDU claims that it is the cause.

You know when PEMANDU can make that claims of theirs? When those points are significantly above the line. That will probably happen in 2012 or 2013 with the construction of the MRT. Until then, no.

The figures for private investment can be verified by consulting the Bank Negara’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin.

Categories
Liberty Poetry

[2530] Too tight for the uptight

Dancing in the night,
in that sexy tight,
but watch out for the knights,
because they’re uptight

Categories
Economics

[2529] Malaysian household income evolution by ethnicity, 1970-2009

There are a lot of conversations about income these days. In Malaysia, the conversations also get a bit racial sometimes. But how did it look like over the past years?

The following describes the average Malaysian household monthly income (pre-tax) according to ethnicity:

This is in nominal ringgit, i.e. it does not account for inflation.

I believe this (the total series) should be read with my entry on 2010 average household expenditure (which states that average nominal expenditure was RM2,200) and the 1999 average household expenditure according to income class. That is especially so to clear up the disagreement about saving and investment that was brought up in the comment section of the former entry,  i.e. expenditure does not equal income and that means saving or investment activities are not included as part of expenditure. As you can see, 2010 expenditure for an average Malaysian household was about RM2,200. Compare that to the 2009 income, which was RM4,000. The more or less RM1,800 difference between the expenditure and income is likely either saving or investment.

Categories
Economics

[2528] (Peninsular) Malaysian household expenditure by income class in 1999

The following describes expenditure pattern of average Malaysian household of different (monthly) income class in 1999.

This is based on the Department of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey published in 2000.

Categories
Economics

[2527] Understanding indices

[audio:20120322BfmIndices.mp3]

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
So I found myself on BFM radio last week, talking about indices. I thought I sort of flustered a little bit and I answered a particular question quite unsatisfactorily. The host asked, why the change is more important than the actual level.

I should have said, because the base is really arbitrarily chosen. Because it is arbitrarily chosen, the level is meaningless most of the time, especially without ranking as reference.

Listen to the interview and you will know what I am talking about.