I am a proponent of an early general election for Malaysia.
A distracted ruling class with a damaged reputation in a lame duck period
There are several reasons why I am so. The factor that I would like to highlight today is that we are entering a lame duck period as those in power and everybody else are already having an eye on the next election. With the Johor assembly dissolved recently and with several state elections likely to follow in the matter of months if not weeks, it is only natural for the political class to worry what comes next and shift to electioneering mode instead of governing. That means the crisis is not getting the attention is should from policymaking perspective. The crisis is an FYI instead of an FYA in the government and the people too, no thanks due current policy.
More than that, those in power are quickly losing influence over everybody else that includes the business community, foreign governments, individual Malaysians and even members of the civil service. Even members of the ruling side with its complex multi-coalitional equation might not take the government’s words and actions seriously. Why should they? They question and second-guess what would come next. Would this initiative be taken up by the next government? Do we still need to engage the current government or wait? Would he still be the Prime Minister? Would would head this or that ministry? Would I want to associate with the ruling side now? More often than not, the safest course of action for most is to wait until the dust settled
The distraction and loss of influence are compounded with fear of voters’ backlash. As I have opined earlier, there is a lack of political capital to address the crisis as that capital has been used for various unhelpful episodes damaging the PH brand. Addressing the supply crisis would involve some economic pain, more specifically in terms of higher prices and general living costs. Nobody likes pain, but the pain is necessary to avoid greater complications that would definitely come if Malaysia is to take on business-as-usual path (which is what happening at the moment). Addressing the crisis comprehensively would intensify the backlach, even if compensating policy like greater cash transfers is put in place. With all these things in mind, the ruling coalitions are frozen to death of what this means at the ballot box and have instead decided to coddle the voters policy-wise from what is to come.
All that means the supply crisis at hand is not getting the full attention it deserves. Policymaking and execution are in stasis when in fact we need courage with all hands on deck.
There is not one, but two imminent economic crises
But what are the crises?
The first is well-known by now even as most Malaysians act as nothing is happening due to the irresponsible policy we have at the moment. It is the energy supply crisis centered around the Persian Gulf that was created by the Israel-US aggression against Iran. The disrupted petroleum supply is sending rippling effects to various sectors in Malaysia (and around the world), as can be observed through the input-output model. The government has been communicating this very well to the public but the communication is at odds with public policy.
The second is the very possible return of a strong El Nino that would hurt, among others, water supply, which in turn affecting agricultural and food production adversely. Already, fertilizer supply is a concern. El Nino would exacerbate the problem and raise market prices.
The first crisis is not being handled properly despite warning from the government’s own economists. The second crisis is largely going under the radar and would exacerbate the effects of the first crisis.
Renewed mandate is the way
It seems to me that in order to address the two crises effectively, the democratic mandate must be refreshed. Here, the general election is the way to shorten the lame duck and do-nothing policy period. Having the election as soon as possible could return us to the state of serious policymaking as quickly as possible democratically. There are other ways to do this, but democratically is the operating word here.
We have seen how prolonged policy inaction affected our lives before. The Sheraton Move caused Malaysia to lose anything weeks if not months’ worth of reaction time during the Covid-19 pandemic. That led to unnecessary deaths and the deepest of pain for everybody. We should heed the lesson of recent history. We need to move quickly.
No doubt, there is a risk that the election would also lead to a do-nothing period due to the need for power sharing negotiation immediately after election. The outcome of the next election would likely require multiple coalitions to work together again. The uncertainty involves the way the puzzle would fit together. Yet on the balance, even that government would have greater political capital than the current one, due to renewed mandate.
Electoral messaging: the truth will set you free
To reiterate, Pakatan Harapan is so petrified of elections (this is a separate discussion but it is all self-inflicted) that in response to the ruling Johor Umno and Barisan Nasional dissolving the state assembly, PH-friendly social media accounts and some PH personalities have only one argument (no doubt linked back to some PH communication operatives): it is irresponsible to have an election during a crisis. But that argument would only work if the ruling side the political capital to handle the crisis, which it does not. It is even more irresponsible to sit on it like it is right now.
Pakatan Harapan should take a different tack instead of beating around the bush. Take the bull by the horns.
Pakatan Harapan (or any coalition with national ambition) should be truthful to the public ahead of the general election. Say it up front: the current government setup is untenable and fraying and that is preventing more effective solutions from being taken. Tell the voters that we need and request your mandate to take the necessary actions for the greater good.
That would be the manifesto: how would we deal with the crisis and how would we mitigate the pain. This would immediately avoid the kitchen sink manifesto that had caused Pakatan Harapan trouble in the past.
Pakatan Harapan can do this. The current government has a good record in navigating global trends and managing Malaysia’s response to global events so far. Use this as a testimonial of competence. Tell the voters Pakatan Harapan has the competence to address the crisis but insufficient mandate to carry on. We have plan and we would like you to approve the plan.
Further, doing this would allow Pakatan Harapan to regain the initiative instead of forever being reactive to its rivals. To carry on reactive as Pakatan Harapan is now would erode further the reputation of all parties in the coalition.