Categories
Economics

[1965] Of Malaysian recovery began in February?

Some concrete evidence that the economy may have recovered faster than expected:

The Coincident Index (CI) rose by 0.5% in February 2009. The increase of the index was mainly contributed by real sales in manufacturing sector (0.5%), real salaries & wages in manufacturing sector (0.2%) and real contributions in EPF (0.2%). The six-month smoothed growth rate of CI showed a slight improvement to -9.8% from -11.9% recorded in the previous month.

The Leading Index (LI) which monitor the economic performance in advance also increased in February 2009. The index grew by 1.1% to 158.2 points in the current month. These were attributed by real total trade of eight major trading partners (0.5%), number of new companies registered (0.5%), Bursa Malaysia industrial index (0.1%) and number of housing permits approved (0.1%). The six-month smoothed growth rate of LI improved -0.7% in February 2009.

The six-month smoothed growth rate of Leading Index (LI) and Coincident Index (CI) showed a slight improvement in February 2009. However, it is too early to conclude that the improvement of these index provide signal of the slow economic growth to be over in the near term. [Malaysia Economic Indicators – Leading, Coincident And Lagging Indices February 2009. Department of Statistics. April 29 2009]

If indeed the economy began its recovery in February, it would provide a damning evidence proving the worthlessness of fiscal stimuli announced earlier. Why?

By February, there was no real spending with respect to the first fiscal stimulus and money only beginning to be distributed among various ministries. That is of course with the exception of the RM5 billion given to ValueCap but we can safely discount that RM5 billion because throwing money in the equity market is like hoping to raise the sea level by throwing is a pabble.

Furthermore, the second stimulus was yet to be announced.

In other words, the economy might be recovering even without the stimulus packages so celebrated by Malaysian Keynesians. But as mentioned by the Department of Statistics, it is still too earlier to confirm the worthlessness of economic stimuli. Let us wait for March first.

In the meantime, I am taking bets that March data is going to confirm February’s trend!

Categories
Economics

[1956] Of somebody is raising some money

Have you ever wondered how the Malaysian government plans to finance its stimulus package as well as its fiscal deficit?

Well…

KUALA LUMPUR: The RM2.5bil Sukuk Simpanan Rakyat government bond launched Tuesday is all snapped up. [RM2.3bil Sukuk bonds snapped up in 2 days. The Star. April 17 2009]

How about borrowing from PNB?

Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB), the country’s biggest fund manager managing RM76 billion worth of funds, will offer 3.33 billion new units of Amanah Saham Malaysia (ASM) and two billion Amanah Saham Wawasan 2020 (ASW 2020) units, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced today. [PNB offers 5 billion unit trust. Bernama via The Sun. April 20 2009]

Show me the money!!!

Malaysia: The government will today auction 4 billion ringgit ($1.1 billion) of Shariah-compliant bonds maturing in 2012. Bidding closes at 11:30 a.m. local time. The securities yielded 3 percent in pre-auction trading yesterday. Industrial production in February fell for a sixth month, declining 14.7 percent from a year earlier, a government report showed yesterday.

The yield on the 5.094 percent note maturing in April 2014 slipped one basis point to 3.66 percent, according to Bursa Malaysia Bhd. [China, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand: Asia Local Bond Preview. Lilian Karunungan. Bloomberg. April 10 2009]

Oh, oh, oh…

The issuance of government bonds is expected to leapfrog by 80% this year to a gross amount of RM90bil. [Issuance of govt bonds expected to jump to RM90bil. Yap Leng Kuen. The Star. April 20 2009]

Are you keeping track?

Categories
Economics

[1937] Of Brown, Obama and permanent interest

Libertarians typically have no reason to protest the typical annual meeting of Group 20 (G20). G20 is of course the grouping of the richest and most influential countries in the world. This year’s meet up in London however is not a typical gathering. It is extraordinary because of the global economic turbulence we are witnessing at this very moment. In trying to address the problem, both the Obama and the Brown administrations are advocating large spending and they will likely call for others to do the same at the G20. This call — probably made for the first time in recent memory — gives libertarians a reason to join the protest against the G20, particularly, against the US and the UK.

Both administrations have been building the spending momentum for weeks, if not months now. Indeed, both countries are leading the way in economic stimulus with government spending as a major pillar. Much has been spent but both English-speaking countries — especially the Obama administration — content that too many are not spending enough. The idea is that the problem is not spending too much. Rather, it is about doing too little.[1]

In Malaysia, the Finance Minister Najib Abdul Razak has unfortunately embraced that idea. With as much as RM67 billion worth of stimulus plan with another RM5 billion injected into the equity market with much opacity by the Malaysian government, the credential of the expected next administration of Malaysia — the expected Najib administration — as a big spender is not in question. This is by no mean that Malaysia is following the footstep of the US and UK. Indeed, the current administrator of Malaysia is gloating by the fact that they did it first during the Asian Financial Crisis when the US was dead against it. The Malaysia’s administration takes the current trend as a justification of their past action.

Momentum or not, both Obama and Brown administrations’ effort to lobby for more spending from other countries is meeting resistance, especially from Europe and Latin America. For regions not known for their love for free market, this is certainly refreshing when the traditional advocates of free market are taking steps in the wrong direction.

Germany called United Kingdom Prime Minister Brown’s method as crass Keynesianism.[2] Although eventually capitulating by increasing its spending but still short from what the Brown and the Obama administration had hoped for, Germany was unhappy at what they saw as them bailing out imprudent others. Germany had worked hard to keep its accounts in order and it despised the idea of spending their money to correct others’ mistakes, while undoing Germany’s successes.[3]

Czech Premier who also holds the presidency of the European Union went as far as calling Obama’s call for greater spending as the road to hell. He has been reproached by other European leaders for the harsh words but nevertheless, it exhibits the sentiment of the member states of the European Union.[4]

In Latin America where Brown and later the Vice President of the United States Joe Biden flew down earlier, both faced similar but more politely put opposition. The hero of the moment was Chile, as President Michelle Bachelet, an economic left, practically rehashed argument forwarded by the Conservative Party led by David Cameron in the United Kingdom to Brown.[5]

Judging from the results of these meetings, both Obama and Brown are likely to meet heavy resistance at the table of G20 when it comes to how to address the global economic crisis.

In all likelihood, the reversal of roles probably has little to do with philosophical difference and much to do with the fact that the economic crisis has unequal effect across the world. In Europe unlike the United States, far more comprehensive social safety nets are in place. The automatic pervasive mechanism as advocated by economist John Taylor is already in place.

Germany meanwhile had saved enough in good times that they believed that the country was able to ride on the wave safely. The same argument is applied by Chile when Bachelet effectively said no to Brown’s call for support for greater spending, which he is expected to repeat at the table of G20.

For Asian countries especially for the export-driven economies, while the pain is undeniable, it is unlikely to go as bad as in the US. And indeed, the different nature of economic crisis in Asia demands different solutions. What the US and the UK are asking is but only a one-size fit-all policy.

Also, there is a sense of the often used German word which has found its way to mainstream English language: schadenfreude. Schadenfreude means pleasure derived from watching others’ misfortune. The latest prominent leader seemingly to enjoy the scenario is the Brazilian President when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He reminded all that this crisis was caused by “white people with blue eyes.”[6] This schadenfreude however has become excessive lately and risks of becoming masochism.

For libertarians, the opposition mounted against the US and the UK is something to be supported of, even when the causes of opposition differ. As it goes, there are no permanent allies and no permanent enemies. There are only permanent interests.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — In this crisis, doing too little poses a greater threat than doing too much. Any sound economic strategy in the current context must be directed at both creating the jobs that Americans need and doing the work that our economy requires. Any plan geared toward only one of these objectives would be dangerously deficient. Failure to create enough jobs in the short term would put the prospect of recovery at risk. Failure to start undertaking necessary long-term investments would endanger the foundation of our recovery and, ultimately, our children’s prosperity. [Obama’s Down Payment: A Stimulus Must Aim for Long-Term Results. Lawrence Summers. Washington Post. December 8 2008]

[2] — Mr Steinbruck questioned why Britain was “tossing around billions” and closely following the high public spending model put forward by 20th Century economist John Maynard Keynes.

“The switch from decades of supply-side politics all the way to a crass Keynesianism is breathtaking,” he said. [Germany questions UK rescue plan. BBC News. December 11 2008]

[3] — German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a speech to Germany’s parliament on Thursday that her government was doing more than most to support the world economy through higher spending and lower taxes. Germany’s stance could come under pressure from financially weaker countries within Europe as their economies sink deeper into trouble, economists say.

Struggling EU countries range from Ireland and Spain, where housing-market bubbles have burst, to Hungary and Latvia in the continent’s post-communist East, where capital flight has forced governments to seek IMF aid.

Although Germany is in its worst recession in 60 years, Europe’s biggest economy has relatively strong public finances and enjoys the trust of capital markets.

That means Germany could be doing more to raise its domestic demand through higher government borrowing, say critics. Germany’s reluctance to do so means its neighbors’ recessions will be worse than necessary, says Julian Callow, European economist at Barclays Capital. [EU Rebuffs Calls to Increase Fiscal Stimulus, Aid. Marcus Walker. Adam Cohen. Wall Street Journal. March 20 2009]

[4] — BERLIN, March 25 — The president of the European Union on Wednesday ripped the Obama administration’s economic policies, calling its deficit spending and bank bailouts “a road to hell.”

The comments by Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek of the Czech Republic, which holds the E.U.’s rotating presidency, startled some U.S. and European officials, who are preparing for President Obama’s visit next month to several European cities, including Prague, the Czech capital. [E.U. President Blasts U.S. Spending. Craig Whitlock. Washington Post. March 26 2009]

[5] — Gordon Brown suffered another setback over his diplomatic offensive yesterday, as the Chilean president inadvertently echoed Conservative attacks on the prime minister’s handling of the economy. [E.U. President Blasts U.S. Spending. Craig Whitlock. Financial Times. March 26 2009]

[6] — Mr Brown’s decision to use the South American leg of his trip to call for a G20 $100bn (£70bn) deal to support world trade was overshadowed when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, blamed the financial crisis on “white people with blue eyes”. [E.U. President Blasts U.S. Spending. Craig Whitlock. Financial Times. March 26 2009]

Categories
Economics

[1926] Of mini-budget fails to reduce friction and cost of doing business

Despite being a person who is generally skeptical to the idea of economic stimulus, I did hold high hope for the second stimulus package or the mini-budget as it is called. I thought this would be the time when we would finally do things differently. Like a crystal glass thrown into the air only to meet the harsh earth, that hope of mine was crudely shattered into millions of pieces.

As it turned out, it was business as usual. Same old same old.

I had expected for a new way of managing the economy that reduces cost of doing business by reducing frictions in the economy. This expectation did not come out of thin air. There were signs to rationalize it.

The biggest was the courage shown to reform the outdated fuel subsidy regime which was costing the country billions of ringgit in terms of opportunity cost. Meanwhile, as the world economy slugged it out, out came statement from the Prime Minister urging countries not to fall back on protectionism.

Then there is the Deputy Prime Minister who is expected to assume the Prime Ministeship soon. He is eager to break from the past and start anew. He wants to differentiate himself from the current administration. Even if he did not want to change, local political circumstances demand change. To ignore that demand is to court doom for himself and his political party. He simply has not choice but to change if he is to survive.

That requirement for change was what fueled my expectation of continuous reform of the economy. Unfortunately, the mini-budget contained more than a billion ringgit worth of subsidy to undo reforms of the past. Clearly the lesson of shortage caused by price and supply controls not too long ago has been left unheeded.

The highway toll subsidy is another disappointment. I have no doubt that the inconsistent nature of the current administration is why that particular subsidy is included in the stimulus package. The users of the highway are not doubt happy about it but I am positively not because I now find myself subsidizing those users. That is what I call highway robbery.

The story on subsidy does not end there because somewhere in the mini-budget speech is a section on what is called the private finance initiatives. PFI sounds attractive with so-called partnership between public and the private sector but the more I learn about it, the more I think it is a farce.

In truth, it is nothing more than a subsidy re-branded under a different term. It is just a term to sanitize the idea of government subsidizing businesses. Under the program, the government will in essence subsidize projects that would otherwise be unviable without government intervention.

Malaysia has a lot of these government-subsidized businesses. They are unsustainable and driven by motives which rarely survive economic scrutiny. They pretend to be public goods so that there is moral justification for the subsidization. It is these kinds of projects which impose efficiency cost on our economy but they continue to not only exist, but unashamedly flourish in our country.

This is the reason why I generally prefer to not have economic stimulus and let the market does it job. The only stimulus I make exception for is generally the one that reduces friction in the economy, like tax cuts. I prefer Darwinisn to rid us of unsustainable businesses so that in the long run, even if we would be dead, at least we could leave our children with a better world.

Economic downturn — call it whatever you like — is a time for exactly that. It is a time for spring cleaning. What we have seen so far only amounts to merely sweeping dust under the carpet, hoping that the dust would go away to somewhere.

By the time the business cycle is complete, we will look back and lament the missed rare opportunity to improve the structure of the economy while stimulating the economy: the stimulus failed to reduce transactional cost. The cost of doing business caused by friction in the economy is not removed.

There were tax cuts announced in the mini-budget but it fell far short than how I would have done it. The RM3 billion tax cuts were done in a manner than only profitable ventures would enjoy it whereas the ones in trouble are the ones that are making losses. Reduction or elimination of taxes that contributes to transactional cost is able to address that problem but it is nowhere in sight.

If that bad news does not move you, wait till you read this: not only the cost of doing business sees no reduction, it is being pushed up instead!

Indeed, initiatives of the stimulus like absorption of excess labor possibly regardless of business requirement and restriction on foreign labor recruitment increases cost of doing business.

Surely, in times when revenue is stagnating, the absorption of more people into various such organizations adds drag to their overall health. Of particular note are government-linked companies which are expected to recruit more people into its programs of fanciful acronym.

On foreign labor, it is true that the issue requires urgent address but such restriction as proposed in the mini-budget is hardly necessarily. There is a Malay saying that appropriately describes the restriction: it is akin to burning the whole mosquito net merely cause of an annoying mosquito.

What requires attention is not foreign labor per se but the recruiting agents and the system. These foreign labors are brought legally complete with permits into Malaysia through our suspiciously porous system without any guarantee of jobs. It is only after they reach Malaysian shores will they start scouring for jobs.

A proper system should do things the other way round because if there is no job, there would be unemployment problem among these foreigners. This will further exacerbate the problem we are already facing in Malaysia in light of weak external demand that is hurting the export sector rather badly. Jobs must have to be guaranteed first before permits are given out.

Cost is further pushed up by resorting to the always popular protectionist policies. Yes, despite going to the international stage to reaffirm Malaysia’s commitment to not to fall back to protectionism, there are elements of protectionism in the mini-budget.

The restriction of foreign labor itself is a form of protectionism but two paragraphs in the speech by the Finance Minister said it most clearly. One of the two indicates that the ”Government will continue to support the development of domestic industries through Government procurement. The Government has mandated the use of local materials, products or services and give priority to local manufacturers in Government procurement.”

This seems that government spending will be done without taking into account the question of price and quality. If the origin of the vendors and manufacturers is the only point of concern, it is likely that the cost of various projects associated with the massive government spending to increase unnecessarily. The lack of competition is known to do that. If the fiscal deficit is to go higher than projected, this is likely to be the principal cause of that.

But clearly, the fiscal deficit is not an issue of concern to the current administration. In order to be popular, these protectionist and Keynesian measures are required.

While the next administration is desperate to be popular, they should be warned of the pitfalls of populist policies. Quick fixes like these have its consequences. Much like the now controversial highway concessionaires negotiated under the Mahathir administration, it will bite back.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

First published in The Malaysian Insider on March 17 2009.

Categories
Economics

[1922] Of deficit, rating and my not so Dutch uncle

I was born yesterday. And I did not study economics.

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 — Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak says that the 7.6 per cent fiscal deficit is not expected to affect Malaysia’s credit rating.

Winding up the debate on the RM60 billion second stimulus package, he said that this was because increased deficits were expected during an economic crisis. [Najib says higher deficit won’t affect credit rating. Shannon Teoh. The Malaysian Insider. March 12 2009]

If the DPM wants credibility, the DPM really needs to be forthright.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved