Categories
Economics

[2681] Government debt cut reduces borrowing cost in the economy

Here is an interesting paragraph which describes how a cut in government debt can lead to lower borrowing cost in the economy:

A decrease in the supply of government debt has forced some money fund managers and cash investors to scramble for alternatives. Higher demand for commercial paper, repurchase agreements and other short-term private debt has knocked down borrowing costs on Wall Street. [US expects to pay down debt in Q2 for first time since 2007. Reuters. April 29 2013]

How about that? A clear crowding out (or rather, crowding in) effect between the public and the private sectors.

Categories
Economics

[2562] A time for fiscal expansion at no cost, a challenge to minarchism

This economic crisis is a challenge to advocates of small government, especially for those who establish their argument based on finance. Even those who ground their position on something more profound like libertarians are being challenged simply out of the practicality of the situation.

The situation is that the cost of borrowing for several governments with debt considered as flight-to-safety grade like the US Treasuries and the German Bunds are very low now. For some, it is more or less zero.

Risk-averse investors really have nowhere to go and the supply for such fixed-income assets is limited. Demand for such assets will continue to outstrip supply in this situation of widespread economic crisis and yields will likely continue to suffer from downward pressure as individuals, firms, central banks and foreign governments bid the prices of these bonds up.

Cases of negative yields in real terms are aplenty. More profoundly, there have been cases of negative yields even in nominal terms. The Danish and the Swiss bonds are two examples where purchasers pay the government to borrow money from the purchasers. This does not happen too often. The market is saying, just take my money and keep it safe; we will pay you to do that.

In such cases, it is probably optimal for governments to borrow so much money and it does not matter if they actually do not need the money. Just borrow and store it somewhere. And if the relevant government has plan that has been delayed due to funding requirement, then this is the time to do it. With zero yields, financing is free. With negative yields, governments get paid to finance the project.

So, the relevant countries, this trend can be used to massively boost government spending and indeed, this can be a Keynesian case for fiscal expansion. There is no cost to it, at least, in the near future. This suspends the crowding out effect that is embedded in mainstream macroeconomic theories.

With the current situation, advocates of small government have to rely on long-run structural argument. The unfortunate thing with long-run argument is that it is describing a situation so far into the future, that it is hard to capture the imagination of enough persons. To most people, what is real is what they see.

And yields on various governments are zero. And judging from the look of it, increased government spending is unlikely to push yields up by a significant margin.

Categories
Economics

[2476] Postponing the European crisis to 2013

I am in the opinion that the expected sovereign debt and banking crises in Europe have been postponed to the end of 2012 or early 2013. There are two reasons why I think so.

The crisis in Europe is essentially two-fold. One is due to government debts. Two is the risk of default by European banks. The two sides are interrelated but it is useful to separate them.

The sovereign debt crisis has been postponed thanks to the establishment and the expansion of the European Financial Stability fund. The EFSF would not be exhausted until the end of 2012 even if all debts repayment or refinancing by the infamous PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) is financed through facility. The potential rating downgrade of sovereign debts of stronger economies, namely Germany and France, may hurt the likelihood of success of on the EFSF front but I will wait until that actually happens.

I am taking this position because by December 2012, total principal and interest payments made by the PIIGS government is projected to be EUR700 billion. That is below the total size of the EFSF.

The following graph shows principal and interest payment obligation of all the PIIGS government cumulatively. Looking at it, without the more permanent European Stability Mechanism which is supposed to kick start in the middle of next year, trouble will come only around February or March 2013.

The banking crisis meanwhile has been postponed until next year thanks to the soft loan facility provided by the European Central Bank. It has been reportedthat banks in Europe will require EUR700 billion next year to pay up their debts. Since the facility offered by the ECB is at the moment limitless (there will be a limit because already the total loans made by the ECB attract considerable question), the problem on this front too has been postponed to 2013.

This of course says nothing of recession and economic recession is another issue altogether.

Categories
Economics

[2466] Too much chocolate can be a bad thing

The auction attracted enough bids to sell all of the bonds on offer, thus avoiding failure. Yet the avoidance of failure is different from success. Italy will pay an interest rate of almost 6.3% on the bonds, the highest since 1997, according to Bloomberg. What is more, the rate is almost a full percentage point higher than the one the country had to offer in an auction a month ago. With enough successful auctions such as this one, Italy will be on a path to bankruptcy. [Super Mario vs the Bond Vigilantes. Free Exchange. November 15 2011]

I laughed after reading the last sentence.

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2423] Is it working? Could it work?

I was reading the Bloomberg Brief just now and I saw this graph.

What do you think best explain the situation above?

  • The bailouts were not big enough (22%, 5 Votes)
  • No bailout will work (65%, 15 Votes)
  • Other answers (13%, 3 Votes)
  • Don't know (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 23

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If your favorite answer is unavailable as an option above, do share in the comment section.