Categories
Society

[2456] There is a silver lining behind the Seksualiti Merdeka ban

The Annexe Gallery is Bohemian. It is a world of its own, very different from the rest of banal Malaysian life. It attracts anything but the conservative. Its taste in art is different. Its taste in politics is different. It is young, urban, middle-class and it challenges mainstream culture. It is a special spot in Kuala Lumpur.

All kinds of festivals are held there. Farish Noor is always there to share his alternative understanding of history to challenge the official narrative. In many ways, the larger Central Market Annexe is a center of subversive politics. Hishamuddin Rais used to run a small eatery there, patronized by so many Malaysian lefties, and sometimes, yours truly too. I was there not so much of my support for his mostly left politics. I was there just because I was hungry.

And then, Pang Khee Teik is always there to make anything happen. From what I understand and observe, Pang is the pillar for anything at the Annexe. He made the Annexe what it is today. Fringe but fun. Small but popular.

Pang or really the Annexe Gallery has been organizing Seksualiti Merdeka for a number of years now without any controversy. I took that rather nonchalantly but in retrospect, it was an impressive feat. After all, to organize a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender festival in a jumpily religious Malaysia is not something advisable to do. But those festivals went on anyway, and because it was nationally politically uneventful, I thought nothing much of it. The failure to note what was supposed to be an outlier in a conservative society is perhaps a mental lapse of mine.

But I was not really interested in the fair, despite being aware of it. It is not a Mardi Gras as celebrated in Sydney. The Seksualiti Merdeka festival typically occupies merely a floor of a restored colonial shophouse. It is not big at all, size-wise. It is just some people with booths, forums and maybe performance in a privately-owned premise.

The thought of the festival’s outrageous success to go on without any repercussions within conservative context struck me only after when the Malaysian authority suddenly decided to ban the festival. Some conservatives finally took notice. It is apparent that the festival succeeded previously because the authority or the wider society did not know about the festival.

Now they know of it and decide to ban it.

The ban is a timely reminder for all of us that the LGBT community suffers from extreme prejudice and discrimination by both the state and by the wider society.

That is the silver lining. It raises the profile of the LGBT community in Malaysia and their challenges. Whereas previously the term LGBT would not appear at all in mainstream media, the past several days signaled a change.

That change is both for the better and for the worse. It is for the better because it pushes the boundary of acceptability. It is for the worse for some LGBT community members perhaps, if they want to live a quiet life.

I am not a member of the LGBT community and so, maybe I do not appreciate too much of the preference to stay in the closet. I am not at risk when I see the need for them to come out of the closet. But they need to know that for all the condemnation they receive, there are those whom will put up a thumb-up for the courage they garner.

In any fight against societal discrimination, there will always be a relatively challenging time. That is when the society first becomes aware.  That awareness is an important first stage of any anti-discrimination fight. Without awareness, there can be no fight for equality.

So fight the ban. But take heart if the first fight is lost. It is merely the first step towards a better future.

Categories
Economics

[2455] Rising expectation of defaults

More on CDS and the European crisis.

U.S. banks increased sales of insurance against credit losses to holders of Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italian debt in the first half of 2011, boosting the risk of payouts in the event of defaults.

Guarantees provided by U.S. lenders on government, bank and corporate debt in those countries rose by $80.7 billion to $518 billion, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Almost all of those are credit-default swaps, said two people familiar with the numbers, accounting for two-thirds of the total related to the five nations, BIS data show. [Yalman Onaran. Selling More CDS on Europe Debt Raises Risk for U.S. Banks. Bloomberg. November 1 2011]

This should be read in the context of the 50% Greek haircut, although that haircut itself is in question after the Greek government decided to have a referendum on the bailout and its conditions instead of executing it outright. Because of the referendum, CDS holders, especially speculative holders, may yet win their bet.

But even if they win, this might be a repeat of AIG. A Pyrrhic victory, one might say.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[2454] Oh, Papandreou the socialist, the coward, the opportunist

If I were a European taxpayer seeing my money being used to bailout a near-bankrupt socialist government due to outrageous spending while I live responsibly, I would be angry. Why should I be the guarantor of a profligate? But if I wanted the Eurozone to stay intact, I would bite the bullet and angrily pay for the bailout.

If I were a European taxpayer funding the bailout, I would be fuming mad with the Greek Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou’s referendum plan. After all the hassles and the blows punched to get the money, however insufficient it is for the whole of Eurozone, Papandreou hides behind the angry masses, trying to deflect blame from the Greek government to the benefactors of the bailout facility.

The Greek government is a bunch of coward socialists, refusing to own up for its mistake, too insignificant to be bold and solve it. Papandreou may say it is done in the name of democracy, but he forgets the adjective representative. He could easily do it but no. He is afraid of the political cost and so he adopts direct democracy and gambles the whole structure for his own convenience. He wants to refresh his mandate but he has his mandate already. This is about passing the buck.

Oh, he is Papandreou the socialist, the coward, the opportunist.

But I am not a European. Yet, I am very angry at the Greek government.

I hope Greece burn. Let Papandreau fiddles while Greece burns, as Nero did when Rome did. Let us see how bad the austerity plan compares to a complete bankruptcy. Let Greece be demoted to the third world. On with the natural experiment on the socialists.

Categories
Photography

[2453] Petronas Twin Towers, Kuala Lumpur II

Apart from the two buildings on the sides, I like the photo.

I wanted to crop the photo to get rid of the two buildings on the sides but I like the ratio and I want the base to be included. So…

Categories
Education

[2452] PAGE is statistically wrong

The Parent Action Group for Education (PAGE) is a group known for its strong support for the teaching of science and mathematics in English in Malaysian public schools (the PPSMI policy). Its chairperson Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim argues the serial improvement seen throughout the years of PPSMI is a proof of success. They argue that that improvement is due to the policy.[1]

I am unconvinced that that is the case because such statistics is so raw in its presentation that it does not control for other factors.

How would we know if that improvement was not secular? Students’ achievements have been improving over the years even before PPSMI. It will be wrong to attribute all of those achievements to PPSMI. That factor as well as others should be removed before any reasonable conjecture could be made between PPSMI and achievements that the exams supposedly measured.

After that, how would we know what fraction of the improvement (or indeed even decline given that we only see net result) was due to PPSMI?

Even if all of those are accounted for, these improvements within the interested period are small enough that they are probably within the series’ standard error. In other words, the improvement could simply be some random variation with the mean essentially unchanged.

Consider the following graph I have pulled out from Noor Azimah and PAGE’s defense of PPSMI.

Take the science rural figures. The mean throughout the years is 90.6. The 68% confidence interval is between 88.9 and 92.3. Observe how many data points are within that band. The 95% confidence interval is between 87.2 and 94.1. Remember, this is before secular trend that has nothing to do with languages is taken out.

So, serial improvement as shown by PAGE through various graphs reproduced in Noor Azimah’s write-up does not really answer these questions.

To conclusive answer the questions, one has to compare two parallels, i.e. compare two series — one for PPSMI and another the status quo — concurrently. This will control for many things like grade inflation, secular improvement due to merely better education facility and access and the difficulties of the exam. After controlling all of these things, only then language will be the only factor being tested.

These two series do not exist side by side unfortunately.

The problem with Noor Azimah and PAGE’s argument is that they are comparing something that exists against something that does not and goes on to conclude that one that exists is better statistically. That is intellectual dishonesty.

The fact is there is no statistics to make the relevant comparison possible. Hence, there is no fact to make PAGE’s conclusion possible.

And, lest pro-PPSMI cheer, this is a double-edge sword. The statistics does not say anything about the alternative Malay-policy either.

That is the point however. The statistics does not say anything. PAGE however sees an elephant in the clouds.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
[1] — GMP (Gabungan Mansuhkan PPSMI), led by PAS members is pushing the Government to stand firm on abolishing PPSMI (The teaching and learning of Science and Mathematics in English) yet again, and claiming that only 3% of pupils benefited from PPSMI.

Evidence to support the continuance or abolishment of PPSMI, should be based on the achievements in UPSR, PMR and SPM. That should be the benchmark. The test results of these three national examinations, proved to be very encouraging, clearly supporting the continuance of PPSMI while contradicting all statements that have been brought against PPSMI. [Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim. Pro-English group hits back: Don’t twist the facts for “political expediency”. Malaysia Chronicle. October 29 2011]