Categories
Economics Sports

[997] Of medals, population and wealth at the 2006 Asian Games

In the last Southeast Asian Games held in the Philippines, a Southeast Asian blogger suggested that there’s a correlation between the number of medals won by a country with the country’s population size and wealth. That sounds reasonable to me. With respect to the ongoing Asian Games at Doha, let’s test it.

Let’s touch on the data first. I use 2005 GDP at PPP (IMF) and population size of Asiad country-participants as listed at Wikipedia. The GDP at PPP is used as a proxy variable to wealth. Data on medals collected by countries as of 0400 Greenwich time is obtained from the official site of the 2006 Asiad. In order to differentiate between gold, silver and bronze, I assign three points to gold, two to silver and one to bronze. I have the all the data in one file and you may have it if you’d like to play around with it.

I got MS Excel to run the necessary regression. I know, it’s a bad choice but I don’t have access to other statistical software. I did download some free, legit softwares off the internet but that was too much hassle.

So, on MS Excel, I regressed medal points — number of medals multiplied by point assigned — on population per thousand and GDP at PPP per million.

Before I reveal the result, let’s talk about my initial hunch. I’d think population size and wealth have positive relationship to medals won by countries. To generalize it further, if we take medals won as a proxy to strength in sports, population size and wealth would contribute positively to countries’ strength in sports. What do you think about that?

Now, the result supports that wealth increases the number of medal won. Specifically, each billion of GDP at PPP leads to a 0.0008 increase in medal point, with all else constant of course.

The surprise comes from the correlation between population size and number of medal won. Each thousand leads to 0.0002 decrease in medal point; an inverse relationship, with the typical caveat, ceteris paribus.

The output:

Some rights reserved. By Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams.

Honestly, I’m kind of skeptical of my own regression.

Regardless, on a different set of regression – medal points on GDP at PPP per capita – reveals that a dollar increase in GDP (PPP) per capita increases medal point at about 0.0018, ceteris paribus. The regression result if you’re interested in it:

How significant are the figures?

Well…

Categories
Liberty

[996] Mengenai jangan gunakan akal fikiran

Akhir-akhir ini, Project Petaling Street penuh dengan tulisan-tulisan tentang Islam and kebebasan. Saya sendiri telah meluahkan rasa hati saya tentang kod pakaian yang diperkenalkan oleh Majlis Perbandaran Kota Bharu baru-baru ini.

Apabila PPS mula dibanjiri dengan rencana-rencana “cut and paste” dan kata-kata kesat oleh seorang Muslim konservatif tempatan, saya terperasan satu perkara yang ditonjolkan oleh laman web terbarunya, Jundullah:

Fair use. Screenshot.

Sekali imbas, rencana itu amat membencikan manusia yang menggunakan akal fikiran. Jika semua masyarakat berfikiran demikian, akan mundur satu dunia. Saya pasti, tiada keraguan di situ. Jika semua masyarakat Islam telah menerima saranan rencana itu, tidak hairanlah mengapa dunia Islam telah lama ditinggalkan kebelakang lagi jauh.

Sebelum saya menamatkan penulisan pendek ini, perlulah dinyatakan bahawa rencana itu sendiri tidak ditulis oleh pemilik laman Jundullah.

Categories
Liberty

[995] Of liberals and the problem of citizenship

As a person hostile to the excessive state power, I’m currently grappling with the idea of submitting to the state whereas membership is forced upon me in the first place. I could accept deterministic reasoning in some sense, that we as human beings can’t choose on certain matters. For instance, we can’t choose our parents, or worse, our siblings, no matter how hard we want it. As a libertarian, most likely as other liberals, the state is established by the people to protect the rights of the people. It is merely an instrument of the people. That idea is alright if a person or a group is establishing a new state. Problem arises when a person is born into the state and citizenship is forced upon him. So, how do I as a liberal solve this problem?

Somebody might have written on this earlier. I know for a fact the individuals like Rousseau have tried to justify the existence of the state. I however would like to make an attempt at rationalism.

At the moment, I see that this problem is caused by mismatch of timelines; the life length of an individual — the citizen — and a state don’t match more often than not. Specifically, as mentioned earlier, the state is established first while a person is born into it. The person will be the citizen of the pre-existing state until his citizenship is taken away from him or a switch in citizenship occurs. If that is the case, if the problem is really caused by timelines mismatched, the most apparent solution to me — and perhaps dangerously naive — would be a revolution each time a person deterministically become a citizen of the state. Such solution is costly and I dare not visit it in the real world. Doing a revolution every second of everyday of the year is beyond rationality and in fact, madness.

A liberal democratic system provides an alternative to constant revolutionary madness. It’s a democracy that keeps tyranny of the majority in check by guaranteeing certain inalienable rights to citizens of the state practicing liberal democracy, enough rights to discourage real revolution as such those that occurred in 18th century France or 20th century China. In a away, a free election is a small peaceful revolution. Through this, free election partially solves the problem of timelines mismatch while reducing the need for violent strength that is ever so necessary in the face of tyranny. It’s only when the democratic system is corrupted, when liberty of the citizens are no longer guaranteed, is a revolution, a forceful change of the state, is inevitable. As Victor Hugo once said, when dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right.

A simpler solution would be anarchism. An anarchy is a stateless situation of free people. Anarchy is the true condition of being free. Unfortunately, it’s not a stable state as more often than not, a state of anarchy, unlike of a state as an institution, lacks a social contract to govern, at the least, minimally, interactions between individuals. The social contract in a libertarian sense is a rule of law that guarantees negative rights of a person. Without this social contract, a person’s total freedom, limited only by his physique, environment and mind, would be inequitably limited and eroded by stronger others. The social contract — every person is the absolute owner of his own life and should be free to do whatever he wishes with his person or property, as long as he respects the liberty of others — ensures an equitable rights, where such rights won’t be eroded by other individuals, based on implicit agreement. The condition that is stable vis-a-vis anarchy. As so often seen in any libertarian material, that social contract must be at the most minimal level and acts only to prevent the negative rights of a person from being infringed by others.

Though I don’t claim the three solutions as exhaustive, that there could be other options, between the three, I prefer the second option for reasons stated above, I hope, clearly.

With the second option from my point of view however, it becomes a burden for liberals to participate in the political process of the state, either directly or indirectly. Non-participation is not an option for if liberals fail to participate, their rights would be determine by other people that wouldn’t necessarily hold liberty dearly and seek to throw liberty into a dungeon cell far below the earth, beyond the grasp of sunlight.

If the assumption of the cause of state establishment is true, then a person’s participation in a process would be important to partially undo the problem of mismatched timelines. For if every free election is a revolution, active participation in free election is a revolution to rectify the mismatched timelines problem without bloodshed.

This however, of course doesn’t work at all for those with stances very different from the mean. For them, proportional representative democracy such as practiced by the German state currently is crucial to further rectify the problem of citizenship.

Categories
ASEAN Economics

[994] Of ASEAN-India FTA is not looking good

Exactly a year ago, I caught a piece of news on a proposed ASEAN-India free trade agreement. ASEAN however rejected the Indian initial offer because India wanted too many items that fuel ASEAN economy excluded from the FTA. By July 2006, the talk was suspended by ASEAN because the Indian list — down to 850 as of July 2006 from 1400 items as of December 2005 — was still too long:

KUALA LUMPUR, JULY 25: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has suspended free-trade talks with India because of New Delhi’s reluctance to open its markets, Malaysia’s trade and industry minister said on Tuesday.

By August 2006, the Indian list was reduced to 560 items. The lists were supposed to be finalized in June 2005 while the FTA itself was expected to come into force by January 2007.

The latest development on the FTA this month reveals that negotiation doesn’t look too good:

NEW DELHI, NOV 30: Asean has given a jolt to India by deciding to almost double its negative list for the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) with India.

“The negative list which they gave us in August was 2,700 which, after subtracting the overlapping items in the country-specific list, came to a consolidated figure of 600. But on November 17, they came up with a revised list of 6,900 which amounts to a consolidated list of 1,000 plus,” commerce secretary GK Pillai told media on the sidelines of the International Chamber of Commerce of the World Council Meeting here on Thursday.

I’m unsure what ASEAN is trying to do by increasing the size of its list but the increase is unfair to India, especially when the India has been trying hard to reduce the list length, though admittedly, I myself prefer to see a much shorter Indian list; I prefer a more liberal market for both sides with almost no exclusion list at all. But when the Indian proposes something like:

Ramesh [Indian Minister of State for Commerce] added that India will not compromise the interests of its farmers by pruning the list. India’s negative list of 560 does not include palm oil, pepper and black tea on which the country has proposed to gradually bring down duties to 50 percent.

I think we shouldn’t call this agreement as an FTA. A 50%-tariff is still way too high, no matter what the initial level is. Perhaps, the reason why ASEAN increases the length of its list is due to frustration. I’d be frustrated too if I were in the negotiation, looking at a “liberalized” market with a 50%-tariff staring back at me.

This latest development looks very different from the optimism we all saw back in early 2005:

KUALA LUMPUR, Mar 28 2005 India and Malaysia are on the verge of signing a comprehensive economic co-operation agreement by year-end. It will include free trade between the two nations.

The signing may be done during a visit by Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh to Malaysia in December.

Indian High Commissioner to Malaysia R.L. Narayan said both sides had worked hard on the matter following Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s visit to India last December.

In the past three months, they have charted a “road map” of the broad parameters of the agreement.

Let’s hope the negotiation won’t end here because prosperity comes from trade, not isolation.

Apart from India, Malaysia, as far as I know — on its own or as part of ASEAN — is in FTA negotiation with Australia, Chile, Pakistan, People’s Republic of China, South Korea and the United States. There’s rumor of a Malaysia-Canada FTA but Canadian officials have ruled them out, at least from the next one or two years.

Categories
Activism Environment

[993] Of introduction to birdwatching by MNS

The Malaysian Nature Society is organizing a birdwatching for newbie event this coming Sunday at 8 o’clock in the morning. It will be held at Forest Research Institute Malaysia (FRIM), not far from Kuala Lumpur.

Come and join us!

Heh. Now I gotta figure out on how to get there. We totally need MapQuest for Malaysia.