Categories
Economics

[2846] Unfairly casting aspersion on the Gini coefficient

There is a very good article published in the Malay Mail over the weekend.[1] It is about the brisk sales of high-end cars like BMW and Mercedes in Malaysia while entry-level, compact cars like Perodua are doing badly, and the consumption pattern in the economy by income levels.

[The divergence car sales by prices are part of the weird macroeconomic statistics that have been coming out of Malaysia since the GST was introduced back in April 2015, along with the collapse of oil prices. Weirdness like the consumption growth is rising nicely while big ticket items like cars and homes are not doing so well in terms of growth. In fact for cars as a whole, it has been declining. It may be some non-business cycle explanation behind this, like the widening of train network in Malaysia but for now (a person driving BMW rarely if ever take the train, for instance), let’s put that aside and maybe discuss that on another day.]

But I have one, tiny issue with the article, way, way down. The author questions the accuracy of the 2014 Gini coefficient, which suggests inequality, decreased compared to 2012, while pointing to the latest car statistics (2015-2016), which may say otherwise:

While BMW Malaysia posted its highest ever sales growth last year, its rival Mercedes posted record sales for the second straight year in 2016. A total of 9,047 Mercedes vehicles reported to have left its showrooms in the first nine months of 2016, marking a 10 per cent growth compared to the same period last year, according to Malaysia’s leading automotive online magazine Paultan.org.

In 2015, when the local economy appeared to be slowing, Mercedes sold a total of 10,845 vehicles, a record increase of 56 per cent from 6,932 units in 2014.

[…]

Based on the sales data, slower economic growth was not affecting all segments of the country equally. While those in the lower income brackets are complaining of rising costs, their more well-off counterparts have been splurging.

”What it indicates is that while the low and middle income earners are experiencing fiscal constraints, it is business as usual for the higher income group,” Muhammed told Malay Mail Online in a phone interview.

Global trend

Putrajaya has so far shrugged off the idea. According to official statistics, the country’s Gini coefficient series shows a downward trend in household income inequality from 2004 to 2012, after which it falls off drastically — the Gini coefficient was 0.46 in 2004 and only dropped by 0.3 percentage point after eight years. But in 2014, it dropped to 0.40.

I find the final paragraph (especially the final sentence) in this excerpt as slightly confusing. After laying out the situation in 2015 and 2016, the article goes on talk about the 2014 Gini data, which might not describe 2015 and 2016 very well.

Confusing, because the Gini coefficient is a low-frequency data done, at the moment, every 2-3 years together with the household income survey. Not only that, it lags severely, published only after the survey was done months earlier: the 2014 data was released in June 2015 while the 2012 data was released in July 2013. You can see its low frequency in the chart below:[2]

In contrast, car sales statistics are high-frequency data available monthly.[3] 

High-frequency data do have a lot to say about the present time. But I feel it is unfair to cast aspersion on low-frequency data from all the way back by using more recent information (2015-2016 car sales) the way the article does. It is unfair because the two datasets describe two different points of time. They are not contemporaneous data and not comparable, at least in the way it is being done.

I am aware of the paper by Lee Hwok Aun and Muhammed Abdul Khalid which the Malay Mail article cites. But the paper utilizes car sales data that is contemporary to the Gini coefficients it uses (before that, I would like to say it is a shame that Lee had to leave University of Malaya because of the short-sighted government spending cuts). You can read the working paper here.

In contrast, the Malay Mail article is taking post-2014 car sales data to question a 2014 Gini coefficient.

So, I think the attack on the 2014 Gini coefficient from the Malay Mail angel might be overdone, and different from the Lee-Muhammad criticism. The 2014 coefficient is just unable to describe the 2015 and the 2016 situation, especially since the GST was introduced in April 2015. There was a significant structural break since the 2014 coefficient was released.

[Also, I feel it is important to note that the Gini we have here measures income inequality, not consumption inequality. We have the Household Expenditure Survey though. Just saying]

In any case, the next Gini coefficient may come out this year or the next. The Household Income Survey is supposed to be done twice in five years (last done in 2014). The latest coefficient may yet go up.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — Syed Jaymal Zahiid. What BMW and Perodua sales data says about the economy. Malay Mail. January 21 2017.

[2] — 2014 Household Income Survey. Department of Statistics. Accessed Jan 23 2017.

[3] — Malaysian Automotive Association. Accessed Jan 23 2017.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — I am not defending the Gini coefficient per se. I am saying the criticism mounted in that particular way is off the mark.

Categories
Books & printed materials Economics

[2757] Reviewing The Colour of Inequality

With only about 200 pages , finishing The Colour of Inequality was easy. Written by Muhammad Abdul Khalid, the book is priced at MYR40, which is much more affordable and easier to read than the thick Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty. Just for the fun of it, I calculated that the Gini coefficient between the two is 30.7. For books discussing inequality, they are off to a good start. Capital, by the way, cost MYR167.

But more seriously, The Colour of Inequality has attracted the eyes of both sides of the political divide in Malaysia quite positively. Both Anwar Ibrahim in the Parliament and perhaps more ominously by Muhyiddin Yasin during the recent UMNO general assembly as a slow poke against Najib, gave the book a mention. I think in some ways this book will provide the ammunition to force Najib to make a u-turn from his more open policy in the past. Pemandu, which I take as the symbol of that openness drive despite whatever its flaws are, is already taking a backseat in local politics. I do hear less and less of Pemandu these days and furthermore, it is already branching outside of Malaysia to Tanzania, South Africa and India, in what appears to me a search for relevance and independence.

Coming back to the book, the extremely good part is the data shared especially those pertaining income and wealth ownership during colonial and early post-independence period in Malaya and Malaysia. The stress on the difference between income and wealth inequality is gold because whenever there is public discussion on inequality, not too many understand the difference and then mix the two up. As the book goes the mass market, hopefully it will help address the confusion that exists.

I would guess from the relatively heavy footnotes, these data are those you can find only by reading local academic papers, which can be tedious. The first chapters are full of these and the first half acts an overview or a summary of early labor, income and wealth studies in pre-1970s Malaya/Malaysia. There is a heavy focus on Malay ownership and so, I should really put it Malaya/Peninsular Malaysia instead. Sabah and Sarawak are largely, if ever, on the periphery of the author’s concerns.

Khalid puts a lot of blames on the British colonialists for creating inequality in Malaya. He zeroes in on the importation of foreign labors from China and India who worked on the most productive sectors in the economy while the Malays was left focused on the least productive ones, mostly agriculture.

He also blames the colonial government for focusing on developing urban areas populated mostly by non-Malays while ignoring the rural areas where the Malays (and Bumiputras) were. With all the facilities built in the cities, the infrastructure facilitated income and wealth growth, rocketing the well being of urban populations above their rural counterparts.

While the two factors (productive sectors and urban development) did contribute to the Malay/non-Malay gap, I am unprepared to blame the British for focusing on urban development. Even today, agglomeration remains a powerful drive for development. It is far more economical to build an MRT line in a city of more than 5 million than in a town of 100,000, for instance. The logic should hold 100 or 200 years ago while the British were developing Ipoh, Kuala Lumpur, Penang or Singapore instead of Pekan or Rantau Panjang, as it holds now.

From time to time, the thesis of The Myth of the Lazy Natives by Syed Hussein Al-Alatas appears, just to give you how strongly the author thinks of colonialism as the cause of inequality then. The thesis was the Malays refused to be manipulated by the colonial capitalist machines and thus remained rural, and largely outside the development of the modern Malayan economy. Regardless of the truth of Syed Hussein’s thesis, with the Malays remaining a rural society with a still agrarian economy that is less productive compared to other sectors (mining and cash crop like rubber) as Khalid mentioned, it contributed to the gap. Khalid also showed that the British prevented the Malays from participating in cash crop sector to protect the colonialists’ monopoly. There is a hint of Syed Hussein’s argument that the colonialists came and destroyed the Malay capitalist class by force and thus contributing to the Malays’ inability to compete in highly productive sectors.

For those who have never heard of The Myth of the Lazy Natives by Syed Hussein Alatas, it is one of those books you have to read if you want to understand Malaysian politics, Malay politics especially, better. I would think that particular Syed Hussein’s book is the Malaysian version of Edward Said’s Orientalism. I even think you should read Orientalism and The Myth side by side. That would make Syed Hussein’s criticism much sharper than you would realize rather than reading it alone. One particular idea I gathered reading The Myth and Orientalism together was that UMNO under Mahathir times (The Malay Dilemma and Revolusi Mental come to mind) imported various Orientalist caricature of the Orientals and specifically the Malays — laziness is one — and then used that generalization as the basis of UMNO’s policy to ”modernize” the Malays. I do not necessarily agree with all written in The Myth and sometimes, it does appear Syed Hussein was just making capitalism a scapegoat for far too many things beyond reasons, but he did make powerful criticism against colonialism and bringing in context into modern Malaysian politics.

Now, back to The Colour, the chapter on pre-independent Malaya-early Malaysia sets the stage for the New Economic Policy era. After a largely uncontroversial overview of history, the next chapters have a few to offer.

The author clearly sees the NEP as a success. He criticizes several works critical of the NEP along the way. Some criticisms make sense. By the end of it, the author laments what essentially the end of the NEP and advocates for a new one, in some fashion.

In supporting the NEP, Khalid makes a few points which I find hard to swallow.

One is how NEP has no negative impact on growth. This is a big assertion because he refuses to admit there is a trade-off between redistribution policy and economic growth. He argues despite the redistributive NEP, Malaysia continued to registered high growth together with its neighbors among others right up to the 1990s (if you have the book by your side, this happens on page 107). But the fact that Malaysia grew as fast as its neighbors says nothing about the efficacy of the NEP. In fact, it raises the question on the commonality between Southeast Asian countries and you can bet that not too many countries have their own NEP.

The no negative impact on growth story is also problematic because it does not consider the counter-factual. The counter-factual is that without the NEP, Malaysia could have grown faster and that the NEP caused Malaysia to grow only as fast as experienced. This counter-factual is as valid as his conclusion without further investigation. What Khalid did here is merely arguing by assertion. So, I do not think Khalid can write when he wrote with too much confidence. It requires more investigation at the very least.

His point about NEP has no negative impact on growth is complicated by his criticism against Tony Pua’s belief that the NEP discouraged foreign direct investment into Malaysia. Khalid replies on page 105 by highlighting that in the manufacturing sector, the government does not impose any Bumiputra equity requirement and allows 100% foreign ownership. This does blunts Tony’s point and the FDI did come in but it complicates Khalid’s own point on how the NEP does not impact growth. If he believes that the redistributive policy does not have any impact on growth, I would think it is unnecessary to raise this point. If there is no trade-off, there would have been no need for the exemption. The exemption did encourage manufacturing investment in Malaysia. It contributed immensely to Malaysian industrialization, which, was quite successful.

Perhaps I misunderstood his point, with his point being that the NEP is not as expansive as a lot of people thought it was and there were exemptions that avoided the NEP from becoming too much a barrier. If this is the case, then, yes, that would be a fair point. But he does not spend enough time and space in exploring these issues.

The point on manufacturing is relevant in other part of the book, which I think works against one of Khalid. And that point is about NEP’s success in cutting poverty down. I do believe the NEP did cut poverty down but my issue is that the author attributes the entire drop in Malaysia’s poverty rate to the NEP (page 92 and others) while ignoring other factors that might be as big as the NEP: the industrialization of Malaysia (remember the exemption of Bumiputra equity ownership in manufacturing) and Southeast Asia (this returns to my point that cross-sectional comparison of Southeast Asian national growth says nothing about the efficacy of NEP by itself).

Since manufacturing was exempted from the NEP, I am interested to know how much of the drop was due to the NEP and how much from industrialization that has little to do with the NEP since it was exempted. The industrialization aspect is particularly important because there were at least two events in Asia that contributed to Malaysian growth. One was China’s disastrous Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution that pushed capital and people out of China to Southeast Asia (and elsewhere), along with the appreciation of the Japanese yen in the 1980s that encouraged Japanese corporations to go out and establish bases in Southeast Asia, especially in Malaysia and Thailand, to cut cost and become more competitive. As a side point, Singapore gained tremendously from the events in China and that contributed to the rise of Singapore; it is not all about Lee Kuan Yew (or Mahathir). There was great transformation in Asia at that time yet, I think the book is giving the NEP all the credit for poverty reduction and essentially implicitly leading lay readers to believe that the Malaysian economy worked in vacuum when clearly, Malaysia has been a beneficiary of globalization.

Talking about poverty, there is also room for counter-factual which the author does not address. On page 111 and 112 among others, Khalid showed that the economic growth for the Bumiputras, Chinese and Indian communities were high and used that as an argument that the NEP does not hurt growth for other communities. But like how the NEP affected GDP growth, how did he know that the NEP did not lower non-Bumiputra growth to its recorded level? If there was no NEP then, what the growth would be? He cannot make his conclusion without answering those questions.

As you can see, I am quite skeptical of his argument that redistributive policy has no impact on growth. I think Malaysia can afford to commit to some redistributive policy but there is always some cost. The Colour is written in a way redistributive policy — the NEP — was cost-free and will be cost-free.

Because of these points, I feel the middle part of the book is an apologist work for the NEP rather than a critical evaluation. This of course does not negate the value of the first and the last parts of the book. The first part raises the value of history to provide context to the current situation and the latter about wealth gap and Khalid’s proposals to address it.

What I think the book does more convincingly is explaining the current wealth gap in Malaysia. The roles of inheritance, labor market discrimination, failure in the education system and the tax structure are pretty much uncontroversial and deserve the attention of the government. There is an econometric model at the end which results are in line with my expectations and other models that I have seen before. The model gives a sense of each factor contribution to income and wealth of a person and becomes the concrete basis of various proposals that the book has.

I have my own thoughts about the proposals but I figure I will write about that later.

Categories
Economics

[2647] Sometimes, some inequality does not matter much

Wealth inequality does worry a lot of people. Malaysia’s Gini coefficient has been bandied around as a proof that something must be done to address the inequality that we see in the country. ”We are the 99%” is the favorite rhetoric to pound in the message that wealth inequality is a problem.

Yet not all kinds of wealth inequality deserve the indiscriminate worry that it receives. What defines inequality as an issue of importance is its cause and causes of inequality are aplenty and diverse.

Some causes may warrant serious attention and more importantly, action. A particularly worrisome kind of equality is the one caused by monopoly of power. Such power tends to concentrate wealth in the hands of the few at the expense of the rest. The monopolistic few can become so powerful that they begin to amass further wealth through unfair means to create an excessively unequal society not merely in terms of wealth, but also in terms of rights.

But wealth inequality can also be caused by factors that we should inculcate in our society. Those factors are so desirable that we should tolerate inequality caused by them. For instance, some level of inequality is preferable simply because inequality is a symptom of meritocracy. As long as we reward successes, there will be some level of inequality in our society.

In between lies inequality created by benign causes. It is a kind that nobody should go down to the streets shouting their lungs out in protest in the name of the people, whoever the people really are. In fact, so benign is the inequality that it should be discounted from any serious informed discourse on inequality.

One of these kinds of inequality is caused by demographics. Or probably in clearer language, it is inequality caused by age difference.

When the young enters the labor market, it is only expected they will not earn too much. But as they age and gain more experience, their income will grow and so too will their wealth. In the same line of reasoning, the older generations will likely be wealthier than their younger counterparts, controlling for other factors.

So when we place age profile and wealth side by side, it is reasonable to expect the existence of wealth inequality. Wealth will likely concentrate in the hands of the older generations than in the hands of the younger generation. It is an inequality between the young and the old. It does not explain everything about overall wealth inequality but it does contribute to overall wealth inequality.

This phenomenon is particularly important to a youthful society. In a society where the median age is low, wealth concentrates in the hands of the few members of the older generations. That fits the definition of wealth inequality: few rich old men (and women) and lots of not-so-rich young men (and women).

But as that society grows grayer — when there are fewer youth and more ”˜older persons’ around — wealth will be more well-distributed among members of the society: lots of well-off middle-aged or old men (and women) and few not-so-rich young men (and women). To put it more concisely, as the median age grows older, one expects to see a reduction in inequality.

Coincidentally, Malaysia has a young population. Based on the Department of Statistics’ Population and Housing Census published in 2010, the median age is approximately 26 years old. The median Malaysian just entered the labor market and still developing their career, if they have chosen one to start with. A consideration portion of the population is made up of young adults. One can expect to observe wealth inequality just because the demographics evolve just as such.

For Malaysia, that reduction inequality may happen in a decade or two when a significant fraction of the population enters their middle age and experience considerable income growth.

The Gini coefficient however takes everything into account, regardless of the causes of inequality. Demographic-driven inequality will correct itself sooner or later and there is not much we can do to address the root cause without resorting to population control.

These benign types of inequality should be discounted from a discourse of inequality. If somehow we can correct the Gini coefficient to reflect that, then perhaps the hard numbers would show us that the situation is not as bad as some make it out to be, that it is not really a case of the 99% versus the one percent.

Besides, in many case, it is poverty that mostly matters and not so much wealth inequality. Why would inequality matters when everybody is living comfortably and a few persons live rather lavishly but ultimately of no adverse effect on others? Jealousy is not strong enough a reason for us to ”˜correct’ wealth inequality in the society.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in the Selangor Times on December 28 2012.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[2609] Income equality. Isn’t it wonderful?

Since coming to power 14 years ago, Mr. Chávez has manufactured dependency on a scale unseen elsewhere in the post-Soviet world. He has nationalized farms, steel mills, cement factories, telecoms and the assets of foreign oil companies. His government subsidizes everything from oil to milk. Government spending, much of it on cheap housing, has risen at a blownout rate of 30% in the past year alone.

The result? Chronic shortages of everything from oil to milk. A 24% inflation rate. A homicide rate that in 2011 clocked in at 67 per 100,000 people-nearly five times the rate in Mexico. Latin America’s lowest growth in GDP per capita over the past decade, despite record-high oil prices. Constant devaluations. The diversion of an estimated $100 billion in recent years to a slush fund controlled exclusively by Mr. Chavez. Rolling blackouts. A credit rating on a par with Ghana’s and Bolivia’s. The steady degradation of the country’s once formidable oil company, PdVSA.

The only bright spot, according to the BBC, is that Venezuela “now boasts the fairest income distribution in Latin America.” Isn’t that wonderful? [Bert Stephens. Chávez and the 47%. The Wall Street Journal. October 10 2012]

Categories
Economics

[2339] The context of wealth inequality matters

Wealth inequality can be worrying. That does not mean all wealth inequalities are worrying. The concern for inequality in this sense is overblown. Up the Gini coefficient and the trumpet is blown to sound the alarm without accounting for its context.

One out of a few ways wealth inequality can be worrying is when a small fraction of the society owns almost everything while the rest lives under abject poverty. For the majority, they are threatened by starvation almost every day. They have limited access to education and medicine. Their chance to escape poverty is close to zero.

This is a case when there is something in the economy preventing the rest from having their welfare improved. It could be poverty itself twisting the incentive system to encourage individuals to focus on current consumption rather than investing for the future (it is hard for kids to think about ABC when the stomach is growling), dictatorship (it might be the interest of the leadership to suppress the masses through heavy taxation), slavery or really, anything.

In this case where wealth is monopolized by the very few, total and average wealth of a society does not reflect the actual welfare of the society. If one wants to be precise, perhaps the welfare of the median member of the society. Take the rich outliers out and only then total and average wealth begin to reflect societal welfare.

Note that what is worrying here is not the inequality itself. It is the factors that make such inequality possible in the first place. The solutions can be interesting but that is not the reason I am writing this.

What I want to demonstrate is a situation when wealth inequality is not a concern. It is a case where the top fraction of the society disproportionately owns more than the rest of the society, but the rest lives rather comfortably — they can afford to own cars, they can afford to obtain a certain level of education, they eat well, etc. The median lives a comfortable life.

The wealth inequality of the society, however unequal wealth is distributed, does not say anything about the welfare of the society. Take the rich outliers out and total and average wealth will give a message that the society is doing pretty well.  In this sense, inequality is not a concern.

The point I wish to highlight is that inequality by itself is not necessarily a concern. What makes it matters, or not, is the context.

For those who place too much concern on inequality, especially on the Gini coefficient, I have a feeling they are not accounting for the context.