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Conflict & disaster Society

[2473] A world without Iraq

I was almost late for my morning history class. I ran as fast as I could while trying to keep my balance on ice and snow. By the time I entered the classroom, I was gasping for air. For the not very athletic me, it was not easy to breathe hard during a cruel Michigan winter. As I settled in my seat thinking my heart was about to explode and my lungs collapsing, the instructor said, “Today will be about what ifs. What if you were early?”

The class burst into laughter at my expense.

After several minutes of friendly pokes, the instructor began to share his plan for the day. “But seriously, today will be about what ifs.” What if Venice and other cities had not monopolized the spice trade? What if old European powers were unsuccessful at colonizing Asia? What if Dien Bien Phu did not happen? What if the United States had not entered the Second World War? There were many more what ifs.

We were discussing colonialism in Asia and we were exploring the importance of certain events by trying to imagine an alternative history where those events did not occur. It required a broad understanding of history.

It also required all of us in the class to do our voluminous readings. A lot of us, being freshmen and still patting ourselves on our backs for getting into a storied school, did not finish our reading. We gave it a stab anyway. We had enough imagination to run wild.

That old memory reran in my mind as President Barack Obama finally, for better or for worse, fulfilled one of his election promises. The US is officially withdrawing from Iraq after more than eight years since the invasion that toppled the former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

The withdrawal ceremony was being telecast ”live” on CNN. As I sat in my chair listening to Leon Panetta making his speech, my mind wandered to Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and the rest of the Arab world. Remembering my freshman lesson, I asked myself, ”What if the US had not invaded Iraq back in 2003?” Would Saddam Hussein’s regime have become a victim of the Arab Spring?

We will never know but nobody can say that would have been impossible. Whether a person is supportive of the war or vehemently rejects the invasion, he or she cannot deny that Saddam Hussein was a ruthless dictator.

That makes his removal desirable to some extent. If the 2003 invasion was legitimate in some ways, many in the anti-war camp would support or at least not reject the invasion. If Saddam Hussein was toppled organically by Iraqis just like how Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali were toppled, many more would support the regime change.

An Arab Spring for Iraq would have been ideal. It would have removed a dictator without causing bad blood among various sides. Yes, it would be eight years later but in a time of terrorism and religious extremism, a world without the 2003 invasion of Iraq could have spurred deeper co-operation between the US and those that mattered.

A world without the war would have the US possibly swamped with goodwill of the kind it received in the aftermath of the September 11 attack but soon after squandered in the run-up to the 2003 war.

It could be the case, or it could not. Just as Japan in the Second World War made the colonized natives realize that colonial European powers were not invincible, the US invasion also reminded the Arabs that their dictators were not gods.

Sure, the United States of the 2000s was not Japan of the 1900s that was seriously underestimated first by the Russians and then later all the colonial powers in South-east Asia. Still, what is possible is not always evident until somebody makes it a reality. The US with its unmatched military might removed Saddam Hussein. The US made possible a regime change.

Or — this might sound repulsive, especially for those in the anti-war camp but consider this — the Arab Spring might not have happened without the 2003 invasion.

An alternative reality without the war would have taken away the realization of the possibility, and possibly affected the psyche of the Arabs. What was possible would have remained only one of the possibilities deep in the minds of ordinary men, never to surface to the real world.

A world without the war also would have taken away the anger against the US. The US in many parts of the Middle East and Northern Africa had close relationships with many Arab dictators. The relations were maintained in the name of stability and much to the detriment to the freedom agenda.

The ordinary man in the streets of the Arab world, already with a low opinion of the US, saw the relationship as a constant reminder of how much they disliked their own autocrats. This only added to local frustrations that had nothing to do with the US directly. All that anger and frustration, along with the cumulative effect of all those issues, created a momentum to push history to converge to a point that sparked the Arab Spring.

Without the war, part of the momentum would not have existed. The cumulative anger without the invasion might not have been enough to start the Arab Spring. That sans-Iraq anger might have been just a weak undercurrent, never to surface and threaten the dictators’ expensive boats, rocked gently by the pleasant waves.

There are a lot of other considerations as well. Maybe without the war, the US would have enough money to bail out Europe. Maybe, Obama would not have been elected as the president. Maybe, we would be still swimming in cheap oil. Maybe. Maybe. Who knows, really?

At least we know one part of history is ending. At least we know the next chapter is a whole new world, for whatever it is worth.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malaysian Insider on December 18 2011.

Categories
Conflict & disaster Liberty Politics & government

[2132] Of isolationist, non-interventionist, libertarian foreign policy

I am not particularly warm to Obama due to his economic policy. Shadows of protectionism and greater government intervention lurk somewhere. His foreign policy however is a cause to celebrate. The Obama that spoke in Oslo as he delivered his Nobel Prize speech is the Obama that I like. His speech on the need of war, of just war, and peace, was moving. Not only was it moving, it makes sense and addresses the nonsense of eliminating war as proposed by some in the anti-war movement. He backed up his assertion by acknowledging the existence of evil in the world. And evil must be confronted.

Obama is right when he said that there is no glory in war. The same sentiment can be felt here in Sydney at the ANZAC War Memorial. The memorial is not there to glorify war but rather, to honor sacrifices of men and women. It is not glorious because the human suffering it brings is immeasurable.

Yet, when a war is fought to defend principle of liberty, when tyranny threatens to rob individuals of liberty for any reason, a war in the name of liberty is unavoidable. Peace under tyranny is insufferable and peace under such condition is not one a free person should aspire. Better conditions are attainable. Of course, these better conditions can be attained relatively peacefully but when all routes are exhausted, it is really hard to condemn the use of force.

How true it is when Obama said that a “non-violent movement could not have halted Hitler’s armies.” Negotiation failed. Britain could not pacify Germany under the Nazi by acquiescing to the latter’s occupation of Czechoslovakia. No. Germany wanted more. The only peace Hitler’s sought is a peace incompatible with the idea of freedom. He wanted submission. Thus war was inevitable.

This aligns perfectly to libertarian principle of non-aggression axiom. Force cannot be not used except in self-defense.

Expanding this principle which is meant to cater individuals is however problematic. The easiest is to accept, however flawed such consideration is, a state as a person with rights to some extent. In doing so, it rationalizes the concept of self-defense vis-à-vis the state. That comes with it the idea of state sovereignty, just as individuals are sovereign over themselves.

It is flawed, because it ignores violation of individual rights outside the boundary of the state, where the victims are non-citizens, whereas individual rights, individual liberty require defending, ideally everywhere. The legitimization of use of force only in the name of self-defense in terms of the state necessarily dismisses any call of action for any oppression of liberty in foreign land.

A digression is necessary lest confusion reigns. Such non-aggression axiom for the state does not in any way prevent the state or individuals from criticizing such suppression in foreign land. Rather, the state cannot use force to prevent that oppression.

The logical path to adoption of non-aggression axiom to the state is one of non-interventionist, or even, in a restricted sense, isolationist. It is isolationist because all tyrannic developments in the world outside of the state’s boundary unrelated to the immediate security the state is given a blind eye. The United States did this prior to World War II. While such isolation has its root in the Jeffersonian ideal, which is clearly adversed to entangling alliances, the effect is the same. The same isolationist ideology brought upon the failure of League of Nations. The era of the Great Depression further demonstrated the far-reaching influence of isolation where the devastating Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was put in place in the name of protectionism although the non-interventionist in libertarian context is only one involving force, not trade. Ron Paul explains this beautifully during his campaign in 2007 as a Republican nominee for the office of the President of the United State of America.

Such isolationist position held by the United States only truly evaporated after it was clear to it that it was very much part of the world, when Japan successfully attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941. The US has since become a global power with interventionist tendency. Perhaps, too much interventionist tendency.

I am aware of the problem of isolation and non-intervention arising from non-axiom theorem much, much acutely. I struggle with it because while tyranny is the great enemy of liberty, fighting tyranny everywhere can be exhausting, especially if one considers economic reality of scarcity. Furthermore, that does not answer the need, from time to time, to react, especially with legitimate force, against atrocity like what happened in Rwanda or Bosnia. Or, maybe, just maybe, even Iraq.

Iraq is a problem to me. I began with opposition to the war and now but I am unsure if my opposition is entirely right. Saddam Hussein was a dictator and he was ruthless one at that. Former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair in an interview not long ago said that even without weapon of mass destruction, he would have gone to war anyway.

My oppostion to the war was because of the flawed rationale of the war. Iraq did not weapon of mass destruction — never mind the controversy on the term itself — when the accusation was made. The failure of the United States and its allies under the infamous Coalition of the Willing to find those weapon is enough to demonstrate the folly of it all.

Yet, if the rationale — made as the main rationale and not as a side rationale as it was thrown in support of the war — had been against the murderous act of Saddam Hussein’s regime, I would probably, under libertarian condition, have supported the war throughout, realizing full well of its violation to state sovereignty. Call it splitting hair but I take great concern on rationale, even if the result is the same. Though I may resign to the convenience of Mao’s black cat, white cat from time to time, the end does not always justify the mean.

Regardless of the issue of state sovereignty, the economic reality of scarcity does bring this into question. We simply cannot fight tyranny everywhere, every time. Going to war to fight every tyranny is unrealistic because it is expensive in many ways including those beyond monetary consideration. One of this consideration is the disturbance of equilibrium. Fighting tyranny everywhere every time may encourage too much lawlessness that brings instability, even if stability means oppression. This, as it should be noted, a contradiction to the idea that there can be no peace if there is no liberty. This in fact, returns us back to non-interventionist policy while, largely, ignoring tyranny outside of our boundaries. Yet, another contradiction. In my humble opinion, while one seeks to smoothen out contradictions, the least problematic contradiction should be the favored one until a solution is found to take away the contradiction and be supremely consistent logically. As far as those oppression are outside of our boundaries and unrelated to us with us having our liberty secured, non-interventionist maybe the way forward.

Perhaps, when Obama mentioned Germany, he was alluding to Iran. The issue of Iran and nuclear proliferation was raised. Making parallel out of Germany and Iran maybe too much because it is always easy to judge something in hindsight. While the story of Germany has past, the story of Iran has not and there is no certainty that Iran ultimately seeks war. For Germany during World War II, non-aggression axiom was violated. Iran has not crossed that line yet, if it would at all. We should not resign to fatalism.

Again, we simply cannot fight tyranny everywhere, every time. At least, not under current global institutions.

In the setup of a state, fighting and correcting wrongs, although not everywhere and every time, is possible in many places and many times through the setting up of a credible judiciary and arms that enforce rule of law in terms of liberal democracy. Perhaps, if the same rationale for the state is expanded to the global level, the same success of the state can be emulated at the global level.

Obama, rightfully, mentioned this in his speech while he also rightfully said he does not have all the solutions. He spoke of institutions. And he gave the United Nations as an example; not a shining example but a success example to some degree nonetheless. There is a possibility that humankind can face the problem of evil more successfully than any god’s had, and not resort to Dr. Pangloss’ ridiculousness. As some phrase that I heard a while ago goes, the affairs of men are too important to be left in the hands of the gods, anyway.

This is a way circumvents the problem of non-aggression axiom for states and confronts the problem of evil by having a third, supposedly impartial party doing so.

This however is a slippery slope for libertarians — and even others — for such argument opens to the path of global government. That, is a monster much harder to fight against when the government is illiberal. Such monster would turn the global anarchy we are in as an utopia.

It would be alright if the global government is a government based on a liberal constitution protecting typical individual rights of men and women and everything in between but judging the world as it is unfortunately, with merely crass majoritarian democracy and the global government, I am uncertain how long such government’s liberal constitution would last, assuming it would begin with a liberal constitution, given the illiberal setup of a majority of states, if these states should be represented to a global legislative assembly without veto power. The farce of the United Nations Human Rights Council is enough a proof to this concern of mine: how could countries which have utmost contempt for individual rights, be the standard bearer of human rights?

If it exacerbates the problem of evil, then it should be rejected.

Categories
History & heritage Politics & government

[1140] Of dead people cannot be liberated

Four years ago, on the other side of the planet, in the free Ann Arbor:

Some rights reserved. By Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams.

Vice President Cheney, roughly six months after the invasion of Iraq:

My belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators. [Meet The Press with Tim Russert, September 14 2003]

That came from a man that shot somebody in the face, thinking that somebody was a quail.