Tag: climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meeting in Bangkok has finally released the final part of the Fourth Assessment Report. Download it here.
I have not had the chance to look at it but essentially, this report is about the mitigation of climate change.
Frankly, I am a little bit disappointed after reading initial reports about the Bangkok meetup and am becoming slightly bitter against the People’s Republic of China. In my worldview, China is fast becoming a villain within the context of climate change politics, joining the Bush and the Howard administrations.
Just as what the European Union expressed earlier, developing countries, be it China, India, Brazil or even Malaysia, can no longer justify their inaction through the inaction of others, namely the United States and Australia. Their inaction makes them free riders.
Further, this is essentially a repeated prisoners’ dilemma model and it is important to punish all uncooperative free riders. In such model, tit-and-tat is the most efficient strategy to encourage cooperation to achieve mutual maximum benefit while respecting private rights.
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[1184] Of podcasting on Earth Day
The second podcast, ever.
[audio:podcastEarthDay2007.mp3]
I have celebrated every Earth Day for the past several years by highlighting environmental issues that have — in my humble opinion — captivated the nation. I wish to stay true to that tradition by doing the same thing this year.
There is no doubt that the natural environmental faces challenges each day and there are countless issues that need to be addressed. Sometimes, it is overwhelming to simply list down those issues. It is even harder to prioritize it. So, the issues I am going to highlight here are in no way the only issues we face. Rather, the issues are the ones that have taken the center stage of public attention. Further, in no way this list is exhaustive and it will be updated as we ride on 2007.
Earlier this year, major flooding took the whole nation by surprise. A town deep in the heartland of Johor, Kota Tinggi, despite its name which could be rendered as a city on high ground was flooded for several weeks, cutting simple folks from food and fresh water. It was no less than a national emergency since four states suffered billion of ringgit of losses due to the flood.
The flood attracted public attention to anthropogenic climate change. For the first time in Malaysian history, as far as I could recall, the Malaysia started to take climate change seriously. Or least, the perception of it is there. More importantly, the issue of climate change enters into public consciousness and no longer becomes an issue among small number of environmentalists and scientists in the country.
The government announced that it would produce a report on climate change amid the chaos that followed the disaster. Though I am not sure if the document has been completed, I have not heard the government making the report public. If the government is serious about being transparent, perhaps, it could take the first step by making the report public.
El Niño would have been an issue to be discussed but the phenomenon itself has been mild.
Related to climate change is the intention of the government to increase fuel standard in Malaysia. I welcome such move. The move however might increase gas prices. I would support the price hike but that is just me. I support taxation on fuel consumption and disagree with fuel subsidy. The government plans to adopt EURO II while the current standard is EURO I. For your information, in the EU, the more stringent EURO IV is common.
I am unsure if the adoption of EURO II covers carbon emission. Nevertheless, we are losing significant amount of carbon sink through deforestation. While deforestation is common in Malaysia, so far this year, nothing is more controversial than the one in Lojing, Kelantan. Finger-pointing game is currently being played out but no substantial step towards the conservation of Lojing has been undertaken by any side.
And then, there is poaching. If last year, we had a proud tiger butchered and stored a like a common chicken inside a refrigerator, not too long ago this year, to those that care, to our horror, hundreds of turtles were discovered on the boat. Only a few were alive and saved from the barbarians. The authority successfully arrested several Chinese citizens of whom were responsible for the act.
What gone is gone however. We must take effort to protect what is left, and try to replenish it from what we have. Though controversies have struck the Selangor state government for the past few years, probably in effort to clean up its image, declared a large portion of its eastern frontier as state park. From Hulu Selangor in the north to Hulu Langat in the south, the approximately 90,000 hectare park is a good news. Nonetheless, just as what is happening with Kota Damansara Community Forest Park and many others, this announcement should be received with guarded posture for so many words have been proven to be worthless for so many times.
I wonder though, how would the water pipe link between Pahang and Selangor is going to affect that promise. The pipe will have to go through the park. That is not the main issue however. It is the dam in Pahang that will displace many Orang Aslis off their ancestral home. Dams always devastates local environment. The planned dam in Pahang is no different.
These issues no doubt are large issues and individually, we are almost always powerless to act against it. But when individuals of common interest band together to form a common front, much can be done. But one does not have to confront these issues to make the world we live in a better place for all us. Even gram of carbon we reduce, every consumption we reduce, every time we recycle, we are doing our part for ourselves, for our children and for our home.
Happy Earth Day.
The second part of the Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been released, two months after the first part was published.
In the associated Summary for Policymaker report (SPM):
- Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. (Page 2)
- A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely6 that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. (Page 3)
- Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers. (Page 4)
What we know on anthropogenic climate change?
- More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments. (Page 7)
- More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments. (Page 10)
- Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature. (Page 14)
- Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and sea level events are very likely to change. (Page 16)
- Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century. (Page 17)
About our possible response to anthropogenic climate change:
- Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis. (Page 18)
- Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. (Page 18)
- A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood. (Page 18)
- Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses. (Page 19)
- Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway. (Page 19)
- Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways. (Page 19)
- Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation. (Page 20)
- A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change. (Page 20)
- Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase. (Page 20)
In the report, the media seems to be zeroing on one point: the winners and losers of climate change. The esteemed NYT has a great graphics on the matter. The BBC has produced another graphics describing the effects of climate change all over the world. At the BBC:
The supply of water is very likely to increase at higher latitudes and in some wet tropics, including populous areas in east and southeast Asia. It is very likely to decrease over much of the mid-latitudes and dry tropics, which are presently water-stressed areas. [Climate change around the world. BBC News. April 6 2007]
From the SPM itself:
For more legend, read the part 2 of the AR4.
In January in the aftermath of New Orleans of Malaysia, the government promised a report of climate change. Where is that report now, I wonder?
There is a template in economics that deals with tragedy of the commons: permits.
And this is how it looks like when applied to replenishable commodity like fishes, graphically:
This is exactly the case in the rationale behind the proposed legalization of turtle eggs collection.
I myself learned about the model at Michigan to solve scarcity issue faced by the fishing industry in northwestern US; the Pacific. In fact, the graph is a reproduction of the original diagram I learned during a cold fall day in Ann Arbor.
For water scarcity faced by the states along the Colorado River, the same idea of introducing tradable permits to combat tragedy of the commons is used. In the NYT a few days ago, the fishery model was cited as a solution to combat another tragedy of the commons; the climate:
Later today, Mr. Festa is going to release a fascinating study about the fishing business that on its face has nothing to do with global warming, and yet has everything to do with a solution. At dozens of the nation’s fisheries, the fish population is in danger because fishermen have no incentive not to take everything out of the water that they can. But 10 fisheries, stretching from the halibut fishery off Alaska to the surf clam industry in New England, have tried a different route. [Earth’s Climate Needs the Help of Incentives. NYT. March 28 2007.]
Tradable carbon credits, which is essentially tradable permits, is part of the Kyoto Protocol.