Tag: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Economics Environment Politics & government Science & technology

[1202] Of the final Summary for Policymakers is out

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meeting in Bangkok has finally released the final part of the Fourth Assessment Report. Download it here.

I have not had the chance to look at it but essentially, this report is about the mitigation of climate change.

Frankly, I am a little bit disappointed after reading initial reports about the Bangkok meetup and am becoming slightly bitter against the People’s Republic of China. In my worldview, China is fast becoming a villain within the context of climate change politics, joining the Bush and the Howard administrations.

Just as what the European Union expressed earlier, developing countries, be it China, India, Brazil or even Malaysia, can no longer justify their inaction through the inaction of others, namely the United States and Australia. Their inaction makes them free riders.

Further, this is essentially a repeated prisoners’ dilemma model and it is important to punish all uncooperative free riders. In such model, tit-and-tat is the most efficient strategy to encourage cooperation to achieve mutual maximum benefit while respecting private rights.

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Environment Science & technology

[1162] Of the second part of the AR4

The second part of the Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been released, two months after the first part was published.

In the associated Summary for Policymaker report (SPM):

  • Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. (Page 2)
  • A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely6 that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. (Page 3)
  • Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers. (Page 4)

What we know on anthropogenic climate change?

  • More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments. (Page 7)
  • More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments. (Page 10)
  • Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature. (Page 14)
  • Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and sea level events are very likely to change. (Page 16)
  • Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century. (Page 17)

About our possible response to anthropogenic climate change:

  • Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis. (Page 18)
  • Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. (Page 18)
  • A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood. (Page 18)
  • Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses. (Page 19)
  • Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway. (Page 19)
  • Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways. (Page 19)
  • Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation. (Page 20)
  • A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change. (Page 20)
  • Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase. (Page 20)

In the report, the media seems to be zeroing on one point: the winners and losers of climate change. The esteemed NYT has a great graphics on the matter. The BBC has produced another graphics describing the effects of climate change all over the world. At the BBC:

The supply of water is very likely to increase at higher latitudes and in some wet tropics, including populous areas in east and southeast Asia. It is very likely to decrease over much of the mid-latitudes and dry tropics, which are presently water-stressed areas. [Climate change around the world. BBC News. April 6 2007]

From the SPM itself:

Copyrights by the IPCC. Fair use.

Copyrights by the IPCC. Fair use.

For more legend, read the part 2 of the AR4.

In January in the aftermath of New Orleans of Malaysia, the government promised a report of climate change. Where is that report now, I wonder?

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Environment History & heritage Science & technology

[1076] Of AR4: Eroding uncertainty

According to the NYT, in the First Assessment Report (AR1) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published in 1990:

The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.

In the AR2 of 1995:

The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate.

AR3 of 2001:

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

AR4, 2007:

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

Categories
Environment Science & technology

[1075] Of AR4 is out: humanity is very likely to cause the current climate change

The much awaited first part of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is out. The copy is not yet available at the IPCC website and so I have not read it but according to the BBC:

Climatic changes seen around the world are “very likely” to have a human cause, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded.

By “very likely”, the IPCC means greater than 90% probability.

The scientific body, in a report to be released formally today, forecasts temperatures will probably rise by between 1.8-4C (3.2-7.2F) by 2100.

Uncertainty, you say?

Further:

As discussions entered their final phase, the journal Science published a study comparing the IPCC’s 2001 projections on temperature and sea level change with what has actually happened.

IPCC models start from the year 1990, so that gives 16 years of data to compare.

The models had forecast a temperature rise between about 0.15 and 0.35C over this period. The actual rise of 0.33C is very close to the top of the IPCC’s range.

Graphically:

Copyrights by the BBC. Fair use.

There are scientists that insist the AR4 underestimates future sea level rise. At the New York Times:

In a brief report in today’s issue of the journal Science, an array of leading climate researchers said recent findings “raise concern that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly than climate models indicate.”

[…]

Dr. Shindell, who emphasized that he was speaking as an individual, said, “The melting of Greenland has been accelerating so incredibly rapidly that the I.P.C.C. report will already be out of date in predicting sea level rise, which will probably be much worse than is predicted in the I.P.C.C. report.”

James McCarthy, a climate expert at Harvard who was a leader in the 2001 assessment, noted in an e-mail message that the panel’s report could be changed until the moment it was made public. Nevertheless, he said he worried that unless its discussion of sea level rise was altered, the panel would so underestimate the problem that it would look “foolishly cautious and maybe even irrelevant” on the issue.

Also at the NYT:

With the clock ticking down and translators juggling six official languages, and government representatives trying to ensure that findings do not clash with national interests, tussles have intensified between climate experts and political appointees from participating governments.

Scientists involved in the discussions said today that the U.S. delegation, led by political appointees, was pressing to play down language pointing to a link between intensification of hurricanes and warming caused by human activity.

[…]

Some scientists are suggesting that the very search for consensus may now be distracting from the need for action.

That particular article reminds me of Leggett’s The Carbon War.

Regardless, can we act now?

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedp/s — the summary for policymakers (SPM) of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has been published. Let us read it together. If you are interested in comparing the SPM for AR4 with the previous one, do read the 2001 SPM at the UNEP. I also have the full SPM AR3 if you are interested.