Categories
Economics

[2674] It is Scott Sumner Day, again

How do you write Scott Sumner Day in Japanese? Haruhiko Kuroda Day?

The BOJ said it changed the target for money-market operations from the overnight call rate to the monetary base — cash in circulation and the money that financial institutions have on deposit at the central bank. It predicts the measure will grow to 270 trillion yen by the end of 2014. [Toru Fujioka. Masahiro Hidaka. BOJ Doubles Bond Purchases in First Kuroda Easing Salvo. Bloomberg. April 4 2013]

The last Scott Sumner Day fell in September 2012, the day the Federal Reserve announced QE-infinity.

It is not exactly nominal GDP level targeting, but the shift from rate to level is a big one.

I still do not quite fully understand it but I am sure the commentary over the internet will help.

Categories
Economics

[2660] A currency war that is not so bad

A currency war is inevitable in the era of quantitative easing (QE). While the long-standing assertion by major central banks that the exchange rate is not a policy tool is pretty much true, there is a well-understood link between monetary policy and the strength of a currency. It is no mystery that the market expects a currency to depreciate each time the monetary authority in control of the particular currency decides to expand its policy.

So, just because the exchange rate is not a policy tool does not mean these central banks are not involved in a currency war. The truth is that it only makes their participation in such so-called war indirect. These central banks have been accused of weakening their currencies through the back door even as they maintain a free-floating exchange rate mechanism.

The need for QE is not being disputed here. The world is stuck in an extraordinary situation where any typical monetary policy is simply inadequate. Rates are so low that it cannot be lowered anymore. QE easily circumvents that problem.

The need for weaker currency for certain countries is also not being disputed here. Time is so bad in the developed world that, almost everybody there wants to export their way out to prosperity.

Currency depreciation does increase the competitiveness of a country by making its exports cheaper to the rest of the world. The issue is that nobody can have a weak currency all at the same time. A currency is always valued against the rest. Someone out there will always suffer from a stronger currency. It is a race to the bottom so to speak.

Under normal situation, the tit-for-tat policy can be disastrous. Economists have a special name for that: beggar-thy-neighbor  Add in concerns for hot money inflow and asset inflation, emerging economies are ill at ease with ever looser monetary policy in advanced economies.

But then again, are the QE and the implicit currency war that follows really that bad in this time of extraordinary circumstances?

The world’s economy requires some kind of rebalancing. Notwithstanding the debate on fiscal austerity in Europe, there is a need for the developed world to spend less and save more, and they may need to export more and import less.

This is the very opposite of what is mostly required by many emerging countries, which do save too much and continue to be export-dependent. The dependency maybe untenable in the near future since most exports go to the very economies that are struggling to grow in the first place. There is just not much room for exports to grow anyway.

For Malaysia, there has been some kind of rebalancing. While the national economy continues to rely heavily on exports, domestic demand has played an increasingly bigger role in moving the economy forward.

Despite uncertainty in the global economy, Malaysia has grown at a rate that is largely surprising in the past few quarters. The fourth quarter national GDP numbers will be released soon and the figures will likely show an uninspiring export growth in contrast to a relatively strong domestic demand growth.

Strong domestic demand translates into strong import figures. In fact, the contrast between global demand of Malaysian goods and services and domestic demand has been spectacular. Malaysian exports for 2012 did not grow more than 1% from the year before while imports grew by nearly 6% in the same period. It is really a wonder that Malaysia maintains a trade surplus still.

Before anything, it is good to know that at least 20% of imported goods and services in 2012 originated directly from countries which unambiguously run a QE programme. Three of those countries are the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom.

These two facts, the first being strong import growth and the second being a large chunk of it is coming from the big three advanced economies engaging in QE, highlight at least one benefit of the currency war: the continuing depreciation of those currencies has kept Malaysian imports cheaper than it would have been otherwise.

This is especially relevant since Malaysia is embarking on massive investments which include the construction of mass rapid transit lines. These efforts require considerable imports of goods the domestic industries are incapable of supplying.

Furthermore, the federal government does have a role in financing these projects in one way or another. It is very possible that the growth of government expenditure has been limited by a stronger ringgit, which has allowed for cheaper imports. That also means it limits the size of fiscal deficit of the federal government, which has come under intense public scrutiny in recent times.

So from this perspective, the supposedly currency war between the big economies is not that bad. While some measures against hot money and asset inflation may be called for, this is a show Malaysia should sit back and enjoy.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Sun on February 14 2013.

Categories
Economics

[2657] Fiscal devaluation mimics currency devaluation

I am a supporter of regionalism. Despite whatever jokes I may have about the euro, I do not want to see its disintegration.

While I have refined my opinion by stressing on the importance of having similar economies coming into a union instead of having a disparate set of economies with wildly different setups and cycles coming together, I do still pretty much in favor of monetary union. I may be in the minority now but I do advocate a single currency for Southeast Asia. Not for all countries in the region but maybe just between Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei. These countries were in a union before while Singapore and Brunei are effectively already in a currency union. Furthermore, Malaysian and Singaporean economies are similar in many ways – both are trade-dependent though more so for Singapore. A combination of Indochinese countries can form another separate union. So, I envision at least two monetary unions within Asean (or three with Indonesia and Timor Leste together).

I am still amazed by the fact my trade professor at Michigan showed me. During one winter morning, he showed that trade between New York and Seattle was many times higher than between Seattle and Vancouver, despite the fact that Seattle is much closer to Vancouver than New York. “It appears Canada is located on the moon!” he stressed.

He was demonstrating that monetary union increased trade. As a strong believer of the net benefit of free trade, I was hooked by it. Even now.

And Europe has benefited from its monetary union, even as it is hobbled by troubles right now.

One painful but the obvious solution to the ongoing European problem is for countries in economic recession, indeed, depression, to leave the Eurozone and devalue their currencies. That would have happened in a typical country during a recession. Currency devaluation helps a country regains its competitiveness by making its exports cheaper to the rest of the world. That what happened in Malaysia in the periods after the worst recession the country has ever experienced yet. That was what happened in Asia. It was an export-driven recovery.

For the 17 members of the Eurozone, devaluation is not an option if the integrity of the euro is cherished.

There are alternatives to exit from the Eurozone.

The first was internal devaluation. This pretty much refers to austerity measures. Wages are cut down to make a crisis country more competitive, among others. This a painful because while it does aid competitiveness, it does create a downward spiral that is associated with deflation. People will not spend before they expect prices tomorrow will be cheaper than today. People will not spend because they have less money. While real prices will adjust in the long run, the short term can be really painful.

There is an interesting article on Bloomberg today about fiscal devaluation as proposed by economist Gita Gopinath (of Harvard “Call Me Maybe” recruitment video fame, anybody?).[1] It tries to mimic the effect of currency devaluation, which makes it very appealing. It includes a hike in value-added tax along with the provision of tax credit. The arrangement discourages imports and support exports. The VAT is imposed on all domestically consumed or used goods but the tax credits are granted to all domestic producers that eliminate the effect of VAT. Exporters benefit from this setup. Importers suffer. The great part is that it is no clear link to price deflation, which makes this arrangement usable in time of recession.

That however does raise the alarm of protectionism. In times like this in Europe, it is tolerable. In normal times, this can be a barrier to free trade. It can give unfair advantages to the home countries that may later mimic the ugliness of currency wars.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
[1] — When French President Francois Hollande unveiled a plan in November for a business tax credit and higher sales taxes as a way to revive the economy, he was implementing an idea championed by economist Gita Gopinath.

Gopinath, 41, a professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, has pushed for tax intervention as a way forward for euro-area countries that cannot devalue their exchange rates. ”Fiscal devaluation” is helping France turn the corner during a period of extreme budget constraints, former Airbus SAS chief Louis Gallois said in a business- competitiveness report Hollande commissioned. [Rina Chandran. Harvard’s Gopinath Helps France Beat Euro Straitjacket. Bloomberg. February 7 2013]

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[2640] Welcome back, LDP

I do not understand the intricacies of Japanese politics. I simply do not follow it closely. But I do know that Japan can play a significant role in Asia, if it finally decides to take up that role, which it has not under the uncertain leadership of the Democratic Party of Japan.

The DPJ wanted a closer relationship with Asia and less of the US. Contrary to what it hoped to achieve, a DPJ-led Japan has not successfully engage China and Japan now needs to forge a strong relationship with the United States in time when China is rising and growing more assertive against its neighbors. DPJ’s economic management itself has not been stellar but I think there it is unfair to blame to DPJ for that.

Unhappy with China, I welcome the reelection of the more conservative Liberal Democratic Party and a Japan with a backbone. That is so because it is almost certain that the LDP will strengthen its relationship with the US. With a stronger relationship with the US and a strong US presence in East Asia (and Southeast Asia), hopefully China will think twice in asserting its weight around the region. China has been an irresponsible giant so far, escalating crisis when a mature power would have handled it with care instead. For instance, is it really necessary to send a plane over the Senkaku islands?

A more hawkish (not too much I hope) Japan will tell China that it cannot bully its way through the region any longer. Rather than a hawk-dove strategy, now China faces a hawk-hawk scenario, which is more complicated and may force China to rethink its assertive, bullying regional policy into something more cooperative and amiable.

A hawkish Japan does have its own problem but at the moment, I do want a Japan that is willing to stand up in the region. China needs to learn that its bully tactics does have consequences and an LDP Japan can push back and say, no, play nice.

One big issue with LDP is its economic policy of Japan. First is the government interference in monetary policy. The Bank of Japan is losing its independence with the government trying to force the central bank to target for higher inflation rate. While I do think Japan needs a bit of more inflation, I am unsure how the interference will pan out. Lack of independence can be a recipe for too much inflation. There is some nuance in the interference in the sense that LDP government wants a stricter (but higher inflation) rule for the BOJ to follow but it does create a precedent of interference nonetheless.

On the same track, the LDP government will embark on a massive stimulus program to revive the economy. I prefer monetary to fiscal stimulus. The preference presents me with a problem: BOJ itself is too conservative to my liking and that probably makes the executive infringement into monetary policy somewhat palatable. Nevertheless, with expansive and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, I suppose you will get inflation.

Finally, while I welcome the return of the LDP, I do not think the election of DPJ was a mistake. The Japanese system needs a shake-up and the DPJ did just that, even if it did not fulfill its promise. Being in power for too long can be dangerous to a political culture because it implants the party into the state apparatus. For a healthy democracy to prevail, the state has to be ultimately separate from the party. In the case of Japan, there is an additional dimension: the civil service is too influential. From my readings, the DPJ did have some successes in reigning the influence of the Japanese civil service, and that is good.

Categories
Economics Society

[2632] The worthlessness and the vestige of gold

In the olden days when four-legged beasts were the best mode of land transportation, gold was money. Everyday transactions involved gold and other precious metals as the medium of exchange then, just as paper money now dominates transactions in the modern economy. Gold had a very special position in human culture then due to its fundamental functions. It is still special today, but only because of vestigial reasons.

During the European Age of Exploration, Portuguese and Spanish explorers crossed the seas under the guises of God, Gold and Glory. The truth is that it was never really about god and religion. It was about the gold more than anything else. When Hernán Cortés and Francisco Pizarro first set for the heart of Aztec and Inca separately, they were dreaming of the glittering yellow metal for themselves.

As other European powers rose to take their place in history, the search for gold became less explicit. The new explorers, traders and later colonialists did not go out in search of El Dorado but it was still about amassing wealth through commerce. It was less explicitly about gold but yet, wealth was very much denominated in gold still.

Sometime during the industrial era, gold and other precious metals lost their function as the medium of exchange. They were no longer circulated as widely as they were during pre-industrial period. It was all papers and coins by the time motorcars, trains and steamboats were crisscrossing the world. By the 20th century, the dominance of papers was almost absolute.

Nevertheless, all money was still backed by gold and other precious metals.  Papers and coins struck out of cheaper materials were merely claims to those precious metals. All issuers promised to convert those papers and coins to gold upon demand. So, gold may have lost its role as a medium of exchange during industrial times but it was still the ultimate arbiter of the value of money.

That last real function of gold ended in the 1970s. The United States government ended the direct convertibility of the US dollar to gold as a reaction to an economic crisis. Soon after, the world followed in ditching the convertibility and thus, gold stopped being special.

Many continued to believe that money, even in Malaysia, is backed by gold but the truth is that all economies in the world today run on fiat currency. That is, money today has value only because its issuers say so and the market believes the words of the issuers.

To put it in clearer terms, gold has no importance to modern central banking.

Of value instead to the modern central banking system — and the wider economic system — as far as money is concerned is trust. Indeed, at the heart of capitalism, is trust but not gold. Capitalism can survive without gold—it is running affirmatively better without gold—but it cannot survive without trust.

So, gold has no fundamental economic function to play anymore in our modern world. Gold is neither a medium of exchange nor does it back any money. Because of this, gold really does not deserve the reputation it enjoys now.

The reputation of gold lives on only because of humanity’s vestigial attitude towards gold.

The phenomenon is much like in the case of Pavlov’s dog. The dog learned that a ringing bell meant food. The dog then began salivating at the sound of the ringing bell instead of at the food per se. It did so even when food was not present. At the end of the day, the dog had been conditioned to salivate to something else entirely. In some ways, the dog had been tricked.

In the same way the dog had been conditioned, humanity has been conditioned to think favorably of gold. Gold has seeped into our consciousness regardless of the fact that gold now has no fundamental economic function anymore. So persistent in fact the favorable predisposition towards gold that too many laypersons still believe that money today is backed by gold, despite the abolition of such a system more than four decades ago.

The momentum of history is huge and it takes time for humanity as a whole to adapt to the new reality of fiat currency.

The failure to adapt can exert cost especially on the gullible. The case of Genneva is one example where individuals were cheated out of their vestigial sentiment for gold.

Believing that gold had a special place in the modern world, they too eagerly bought the metal from Genneva while not realizing that they were being manipulated. It is only too bad that reality had to set in and the scam had to end. Actions by the authority in both Malaysia and Singapore only hastened the inevitable collapse of Genneva, just as any large-scale scam eventually will under of its own weight.

Of course, financial scams come in so many other ways and gold is not an exclusive tool for scams. Old-styled Ponzi scheme relies on just money, plain old greed and some doses of gullibility. Still, the obsession with gold is unhealthy. The sooner we all realize that there is nothing special about gold anymore, better we all will be.

After the learning is complete then perhaps we may start to put our money into something more productive than the vestige of gold.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in Selangor Times on November 23 2012.