[2231] Of fluid Australian politics

It happens once every three years. That is how often the Australian Federal election has to be held. That is probably why Australian politics is as fluid as it is today.

Just how fluid is it?

Consider the fortune of Kevin Rudd, the Labor Party and its opponent the Coalition, which swung back and forth all within just a year.

In weeks prior to the ouster of Rudd, it was clear that he was becoming increasing unpopular. This is in stark contrast to the atmosphere a year ago when he was wildly popular.

Meanwhile, the Coalition — made up of the Liberals and the Nationals in the opposition — was squabbling among itself. The source of tension was Labor’s proposed carbon cap and trade legislation. Labor did not have the numbers to get it passed in Parliament. To do so, they worked with some within the Coalition, including Malcolm Turnbull, the former Opposition Leader.

It was a masterstroke by the government. While Turnbull and his fraction within the Coalition supported the legislation in one way or another, many others in the opposition did not. So bitter was the division that the Labor government under Rudd needed not do anything to come out on top. The Coalition was on self-destruct mode.

Rudd and Labor even had the option of dissolving Parliament if the legislation failed to pass. Projection at that time suggested that the Coalition could be wiped out if an election was called.

The legislation did fail. All Rudd needed to do was to finish it. Yet, he did not exercise the option. In retrospect, he should have.

After labeling the climate change as the forefront issue of his administration, his failure to get it through doomed him. There were other issues like government spending, refugees, migration, censorship and the mining tax of course but climate change was truly the battle the turned the tide against him.

He met with opposition when he first introduced the legislation on climate change. That was inevitable. When he decided not to push it, he ended up angering everyone, including the supporters of the legislation. It was yet another example of the peril of flip-flopping.

He should have called an election when he had the chance. It would have saved him from the flip-flop, the embarrassment and the backlash. Furthermore, it would have prevented the Coalition from reorganizing itself.

Tony Abbott replaced Turnbull. By the time the government tried to introduce an unpopular mining tax, Abbott went full steam ahead on the offensive along with the mining industry.

Combined with Labor’s failure and a resurgent opposition, Labor’s approval rating fell. This was worrying to Labor because election had to be called soon. The balance tipped so much that the factions in Labor decided that Rudd was a liability. The issue on tax sealed his fate.

At first, there were just rumors. Australian media were highlighting the popularity of his deputy Julia Gillard. Later, it happened: the first female prime minister for Australia.

The first thing she did as prime minister was to — so-called — clear the deck. She undid some of Rudd’s major initiatives and helped Labor salvage some points in the approval rating polls. The factions in Labor, nervous about going through an election, bet on Gillard and it worked. That is, it worked in a sense that Labor is now predicted to have enough support — just barely — to form the government in the next term.

Of course, it is yet to be seen who will form the next government in Australia. Pundits are expecting a close election. It appears that although Gillard is more popular compared to Abbott, the support for her has not translated into support for Labor so far.

That will depend on the rollercoaster ride in the next four weeks or so.

First published in The Malaysian Insider on July 26 2010.