Is the Malaysian economy in trouble? Or rather, was it in trouble in September?
Judging by the latest lagging, coincident and leading indicators, the answer to the question is not really in the positive.
The Coincident Index (CI), a measure of current economic activity, decreased by 0.1% in September 2008 registering at 123.6 points. Negative change was recorded by Index of Industrial Production (-0.3%), real salaries & wages (-0.2%) and real sales in manufacturing sector (-0.1). The six-month smoothed growth rate of CI remain positive at 0.2% in the current month.
The Leading Index (LI) moved up 0.8% to reach 158.8 points in September 2008 as compared to 157.5 points in the previous month. Two out of the eight existing components posted an increase, namely, real money supply, M1 (0.8%) and number of housing permits approved (0.8%). The six-month smoothed growth rate of LI recorded an increase of 1.2% in the current month.
The recent trend of the LI six-month smoothed growth rate indicates that the Malaysian economy is expected to sustain its slow growth in the month ahead. [Malaysia Economic Indicators – Leading, Coincident And Lagging Indices September 2008. Department of Statistics Malaysia. Assessed December 7 2008]
It was slowing down but not as bad as feared. The Lagging Index for September especially was higher when seasonally adjusted to the year before.
p/s — The Bank Negara totally needs an RSS feed.
4 replies on “[1846] Of forward indices, forward!”
Thanks.
But the Stats Dept does have RSS for its releases. I get their update via my Google Reader.
Bro,
Not sure if this is relevant to you, but for bond market data, there is an RSS feed here.
On economic stats, personally, I prefer DoS punya website. Tapi there also no RSS feed methinks. Will put forth the suggestion to the relevant ppl though!
Not referring to the current economic scene.
The whole post refers to the situation in September, and it indicates that the situation back then was better than the pessimism that existed at the same time.
No, economy statistic rarely show current economy scene. When the problem surface, it is always too late.
“Slow growth” in many trouble company has teach countless lesson, sometime all this “slow growth” are actually money losing cover up. When the market panic, then you will see things fall like domino effect.