The soon-to-be Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department overseeing the Economic Planning Unit Abdul Wahid Omar commented on the 1Q real GDP growth earlier this week. He said:
”The gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter was a bit slow, but that’s reflective of the economic activities which are typically slower (in this period),” Wahid said. [Liz Lee. Wahid: M’sia growth prospects still bright, will be driven by Govt identified projects. The Star. May 21 2013]
That is untrue. He has very likely confused his base.
It is true on quarter-on-quarter basis that 1Q tends to grow slower than the other quarters but the 4.1% is not measured on quarter-on-quarter basis. Instead, it is measured on year-on-year basis which pretty much controls the seasonality that bedevils quarter-on-quarter measurement (by the way, seasonality makes unadjusted quarter-on-quarter measurement unhelpful in most cases).
If you take a look for the past 11 years or so, there is not enough evidence to show that it is typical for year-on-year growth of 1Q RGDP to be slower than other quarters. You can see it for yourself:
In fact, the more than 10% growth that some BN politicians liked to crow without contextual understanding happened in 1Q2010.
I hope whatever he said to the media was an honest slip of the tongue mistake. Otherwise, his term as a minister will be full of statistical controversies.
