A big event is expected to occur tomorrow, possibly testing the efficient market hypothesis along the way:
PUTRAJAYA, March 15 (Bernama) — The government will announce the WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) licence recipients Friday. [Govt To Announce WiMax Licence Recipients Tomorrow, Bernama, March 15 2007]
Four WiMAX licenses are to be awarded with 17 entities bidding for it in this natural experiment:
The applicants for the Wimax tender include three of the country’s four 3G (third generation) spectrum holders, namely Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Maxis Communications Bhd and MiTV Corp Bhd.
The other bidders are DiGi.Com Bhd, NasionCom Sdn Bhd, MIB Comm Sdn (controlled by Green Packet Bhd), Jaring Communications Sdn Bhd, Asiaspace Bhd, Go Lightspeed Broadband Sdn Bhd, Bizsuft (M) Sdn Bhd, IP Mobility Sdn Bhd, Optical Communications Engineering Sdn Bhd, Celcom Timur (Sabah Sdn Bhd), Fibrecomm Network (M) Sdn Bhd, SGR Capital Bhd, REDTone-CNX Broadband Sdn Bhd, YTL e-Solutions and Electcoms Wireless Sdn Bhd. [Govt To Announce WiMax Licence Recipients Tomorrow, Bernama, March 15 2007]
By looking at the share prices, a lot of people are betting their money on YTL E-Solutions:
According to various sources, another two other leading candidates are Greenpacket…:
…and Redtone:
In economics, efficient market hypothesis states that all information relevant to security pricing is reflected in prices. Let us see whether those prices, as far as the WiMAX bids are concerned, fall under weak, semi-strong or strong efficiency. Or none at all for that matter. If those prices fall under strong efficiency categorization, one has every reason to believe that YTL e-Solutions is going to win one of the licenses.
Let us see if those science fictions I learned at Michigan would bring some quick buck.
