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Photography Politics & government

[2843] Comrade Takashimaya

I love this kind of contrast.

Within Southeast Asia, it is at its starkest in Vietnam.

I have been to Laos with its own nominally communist government. The hammer and the sickle would adorn lamp posts and facades in Vientianne and Luang Prabang, reminding tourists and locals alike the insecurity of those in power. But deep in the Mekong heartland, commercialization is still at its infancy, rugged and all. There are contrasts, but not like how it is in Vietnam, where consumerism is embraced wholeheartedly decades after American troops were chased out, sparking Malaysia’s first refugee crisis.

Malaysia received those Vietnamese refugees about 30-40 years ago, unwillingly. They are grateful to us, it seems, regardless of our intention.

Not much has changed today as Malaysia experiences its third refugee crisis, the second, I think, being the one caused by the civil war in southern Philippines. This time around, the new refugees from Myanmar are just a political football game to be played by the corrupt.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[2563] Why I do not want to see a Eurozone break-up

I understand the case for the breaking up of the Eurozone. I do appreciate the virtue behind a flexible exchange rate, especially for cases like Greece. There is a need for rebalancing that a monetary union cannot provide. Yet, I am uneasy at the suggestion of a break-up, of Grexit, because deep inside of me, I am more or less an internationalist.

The internationalist sentiment is derived from my libertarian belief. It is about freedom of movement. Free flow of labor. Free flow of capital. All around the world.

I dream of a world where I would not have to present identification whenever I land in some foreign airports. I dream that I would be free to be anyway I choose without the need to ask permission from the state.

Unleash the ideal world and what I call the crazy me would come out as an anarchist. Specifically, an anarcho-capitalist. Freedom unbounded.

But I am not an anarchist because I understand anarchism is inherently unstable. I settle for the second best option available and that is free-market libertarianism.

Just as anarchism is the ideal but unattainable and thus the second-best solution is libertarianism, internationalism is the ideal but the second best approach is regionalism, for now.

This fuels my sympathy for the Eurozone. I want the Eurozone to be intact because of my bias. It has nothing to do about being western or Europe-centric.

I want it intact so that in the future, the Asean version can emerge. An Eurozone failure will likely inform decision on a more integrated Asean. Already the Indonesian President warned Asean of repeating the European mistake. The warning is appropriate but as I have argued, there are appropriate lessons to learn from the European crisis without jettisoning a closer Asean idea.

And I do think Europe will succeed, if recent history is of value.

The end of World War II saw closer cooperation between European countries: observe the Marshall Plan. Not all and definitely it was easy to cooperation when your opponent is dead, but the cooperation happened and that is the point.

The Cold War saw closer integration: observe the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community.

Post-Cold War saw even more: observe the European Union and its expansion.

The European Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis brought closer cooperation: observe the introduction of the Eurozone.

Now, the latest Eurozone crisis may bring in closer cooperation: observe the fiscal union proposal.

So, do not ring the bell yet. The regionalist game is not over yet and the outcome of death is not certain.

As a libertarian, the issue is the creation of a stronger state but I think, this can be a largely enlightened state, with a federal structure is can be a counterforce to the central government.

Categories
Economics

[2553] The lesson of Europe for Southeast Asia

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono warned of the danger of a common currency in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. It is a reminder that needs not a resounding. The horror of Europe is enough to make one thinks twice of a currency union. The talks of Greek exit can potential become the end of the European dream.

The European crisis is a challenge to me partly because I am supportive of a currency union for Southeast Asia. Sometimes in the past, I contended to be associated with the term Aseanist.

More importantly, I am supportive of a currency union because of my free trade tendency: a union boosts trade because it reduces trade barrier significantly.

To be fair to myself, I support a union across similar economies and not wholly across the diverse Southeast Asia economies from the financially sophisticated Singapore to the tiny backwater East Timor.

Really, the lesson of Europe is not that monetary union does not work. The lesson is that monetary union works best for similar economies: the economic cycles mostly coincide, the structures are about the same, the culture of societies in it are not so different, etc.

I think I have made the case for a currency union for Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei for a start. In fact, Singapore and Brunei are already on a currency board, which effectively means de facto currency union. Malaysia is the natural extension of the Brunei-Singapore union because of its proximity and the massive interlinking between the three economies.

Then, there is perhaps historical hangover on my part, given how the original Malaysian proposal was a 15-state federation, with both Brunei and Singapore in it. Indeed, prior to 1973, all three currencies were interchangeable freely. Even before that between 1953 and 1967, all three countries used the same currency.

One issue with the Malaysia-Singapore-Brunei currency union is that the Singaporean economy tends to be more volatile than Malaysia. Nevertheless, I think in many ways, the direction of both economies are more or less the same. In that sense, the challenge of a monetary authority is to be more flexible and responsive to a more dynamic economy.

Categories
ASEAN Economics Liberty

[1397] Of the most moral action is to integrate Myanmar into the global economy

What is happening in Myanmar is nothing short of tragedy. Amid outrage, calls for actions against the junta of Myanmar could be loudly heard. Yet, what action is the most moral of all?

The basis for action is simple: conscience calls it. Forceful suppression that leads to death invokes strong emotions. These emotions as well as the ability to differentiate between right and wrong, for many, lead to one goal: halt the killing. Those with stronger inclination demand absolute respect for liberty and restoration of democracy in Myanmar. While the objectives are noble, it does not prescribe how one achieves that goal with intact moral.

There are those that favor wide economic sanction against the country in hope to pressure to junta out of power or at least, into executing meaningful democratic reforms. I am not too warm to that idea; there is little to achieve by isolating an already isolated country. More often than not, such isolation hurts the people while tyrannical regimes continue to hold power, as proven in North Korea, Cuba, Libya, Zimbabwe and no less, in Myanmar. Sanctions reduce the opportunities for the people from lift themselves out of poverty by preventing them from riding on the wave of globalization.

Some have gone farther down the line by calling for direct intervention in Myanmar, just like what happened in Yugoslavia in the 1990s. The moral dilemma of this suggestion, for a libertarian at least, while viewing it through the lens of state sovereignty, is glaring.

Transgression of liberty by itself is enough for a libertarian to act. I however have yet to read a convincing thought specifically forged as a basis of a foreign policy that is capable truly respecting state sovereignty. The reason is, libertarianism is an individual-centric philosophy.

Perhaps, the safest position that appeals to stability for a libertarian is to consider the state as an individual and from that assumption, adhere to non-aggression principal. This translates into non-interference policy. That unfortunately will only justify the stance that ASEAN: relative inaction. Taking a step back, there seems to be conflict of moral: surely, inaction in the face of tyranny is immoral. As an old saying goes, all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Nevertheless, the trade-off between stability and impeccable moral is real.

In contrast, hawkish libertarians will ignore state boundaries to promote individual liberty. They will not grant the state the same rights granted to individuals for a very simple but appealing reasoning: a state is not an individual. In isolated incident where consistency of thoughts is suspended, the clear promotion individual liberty leads to the best of all outcomes imagined by libertarians and others that seek the goal of a liberal and democratic Myanmar. Rarely however does such policy is executed in the public domain by instead it will act as a precedent for future actions. Worse, this rationale will lead to a highly unstable world. Many libertarians that support the war in Iraq subscribe to this view. Various states will constantly be at war, at the slightest violation of individual liberty; there will be no such thing as internal issues and such, this erode the idea of the state.

Through this, I hope I have helped illustrate how morally, executing an action is harder than a simply call for noble action. Despite that, there is a path that stays better than isolation and direct or indirect intervention. That path is active engagement.

The countries that I leverage against the junta are countries with considerable ties with Myanmar. Among these countries are China, India and Russia. Countries with have no tie with Myanmar have little influence over it. Through extrapolation, it is only rationale to project that the more integrated the Myanmar economy is to the global economy, the more leverage the world will have over the government of Myanmar. Through this, Myanmar will have to be sensitive to international opinion, lest Myanmar will lose the huge benefits it enjoys from global trade. The fact that the countries that have significant relationship with Myanmar do not exactly hold sympathy for liberty does not help: these countries have little reason to pressure Myanmar to cease its oppression when those countries themselves suppress individual liberty.

Integration also increases the effectiveness of future threat of sanction. As mentioned earlier, the act of isolating an already isolated country is useless: the marginal benefit of such policy has gone over the peak for Myanmar. Integration and by extension, freer trade between Myanmar and the world will grant Myanmar the benefits of economic globalization. Under reasonable autarky that Myanmar currently is, it has nothing to lose from sanction. Under reasonable open market atmosphere, Myanmar has something to lose from sanction.

More importantly, the people of Myanmar will enjoy the benefits of freer trade and the march towards liberal democracy. Truly, there is greater moral here than further sanction or direct intervention, if one wishes to keep the idea of state sovereignty intact.

For a normative model to be successful, it has to include a working carrot and stick model. Under the current setup, there is no carrot. Integration is the carrot and once the carrot is out, the stick will become effect. Without the carrot, the effect of the stick is reduced, as what is happening at the moment in the largest countries on mainland Southeast Asia.

The conclusion suggests this: for ASEAN to have a greater influence over the government of Myanmar, ASEAN, especially the more prosperous states, need to do more to integrate Myanmar into the regional economy that is AFTA.

Categories
ASEAN Liberty

[1387] Of for Myanmar, recurring nightmare

I hope that I am wrong but from the look of it, it has begun:

BANGKOK, Sept. 26 — The government of Myanmar began a violent crackdown today after tolerating more than a month of ever-larger protests in cities around the country, clubbing and tear- gassing protesters, firing shots into the air and arresting hundreds of the monks who are at the heart of the demonstrations.

The Reuters news agency quoted hospital and monastery sources as saying two monks and a civilian were killed and several people were wounded in the crackdown. [Police Clash with Monks in Myanmar. New York Times. September 26 2007]

Where is ASEAN? Busy drafting that little charter of yours?

Inaction would signal this: the worthlessness of the ASEAN Charter, for all its grand — and most likely empty — promises to ensure human rights.