Categories
Economics Environment Politics & government Science & technology

[1202] Of the final Summary for Policymakers is out

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meeting in Bangkok has finally released the final part of the Fourth Assessment Report. Download it here.

I have not had the chance to look at it but essentially, this report is about the mitigation of climate change.

Frankly, I am a little bit disappointed after reading initial reports about the Bangkok meetup and am becoming slightly bitter against the People’s Republic of China. In my worldview, China is fast becoming a villain within the context of climate change politics, joining the Bush and the Howard administrations.

Just as what the European Union expressed earlier, developing countries, be it China, India, Brazil or even Malaysia, can no longer justify their inaction through the inaction of others, namely the United States and Australia. Their inaction makes them free riders.

Further, this is essentially a repeated prisoners’ dilemma model and it is important to punish all uncooperative free riders. In such model, tit-and-tat is the most efficient strategy to encourage cooperation to achieve mutual maximum benefit while respecting private rights.

Categories
Environment Science & technology

[1162] Of the second part of the AR4

The second part of the Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been released, two months after the first part was published.

In the associated Summary for Policymaker report (SPM):

  • Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. (Page 2)
  • A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely6 that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. (Page 3)
  • Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers. (Page 4)

What we know on anthropogenic climate change?

  • More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments. (Page 7)
  • More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments. (Page 10)
  • Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in global average temperature. (Page 14)
  • Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate, and sea level events are very likely to change. (Page 16)
  • Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century. (Page 17)

About our possible response to anthropogenic climate change:

  • Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis. (Page 18)
  • Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. (Page 18)
  • A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood. (Page 18)
  • Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses. (Page 19)
  • Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway. (Page 19)
  • Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways. (Page 19)
  • Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation. (Page 20)
  • A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change. (Page 20)
  • Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase. (Page 20)

In the report, the media seems to be zeroing on one point: the winners and losers of climate change. The esteemed NYT has a great graphics on the matter. The BBC has produced another graphics describing the effects of climate change all over the world. At the BBC:

The supply of water is very likely to increase at higher latitudes and in some wet tropics, including populous areas in east and southeast Asia. It is very likely to decrease over much of the mid-latitudes and dry tropics, which are presently water-stressed areas. [Climate change around the world. BBC News. April 6 2007]

From the SPM itself:

Copyrights by the IPCC. Fair use.

Copyrights by the IPCC. Fair use.

For more legend, read the part 2 of the AR4.

In January in the aftermath of New Orleans of Malaysia, the government promised a report of climate change. Where is that report now, I wonder?

Categories
Humor Science & technology

[1143] Of between communication and food

Q: What would you get if you eat too much BlackBerry?

A: Bluetooth.

Categories
Economics Science & technology

[1132] Of for WiMAX, the winners are…

A big event is expected to occur tomorrow, possibly testing the efficient market hypothesis along the way:

PUTRAJAYA, March 15 (Bernama) — The government will announce the WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) licence recipients Friday. [Govt To Announce WiMax Licence Recipients Tomorrow, Bernama, March 15 2007]

Four WiMAX licenses are to be awarded with 17 entities bidding for it in this natural experiment:

The applicants for the Wimax tender include three of the country’s four 3G (third generation) spectrum holders, namely Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Maxis Communications Bhd and MiTV Corp Bhd.

The other bidders are DiGi.Com Bhd, NasionCom Sdn Bhd, MIB Comm Sdn (controlled by Green Packet Bhd), Jaring Communications Sdn Bhd, Asiaspace Bhd, Go Lightspeed Broadband Sdn Bhd, Bizsuft (M) Sdn Bhd, IP Mobility Sdn Bhd, Optical Communications Engineering Sdn Bhd, Celcom Timur (Sabah Sdn Bhd), Fibrecomm Network (M) Sdn Bhd, SGR Capital Bhd, REDTone-CNX Broadband Sdn Bhd, YTL e-Solutions and Electcoms Wireless Sdn Bhd. [Govt To Announce WiMax Licence Recipients Tomorrow, Bernama, March 15 2007]

By looking at the share prices, a lot of people are betting their money on YTL E-Solutions:

Copyrighted by The Star. Fair use.

According to various sources, another two other leading candidates are Greenpacket…:

Copyrighted by The Star. Fair use.

…and Redtone:

Copyrighted by The Star. Fair use.

In economics, efficient market hypothesis states that all information relevant to security pricing is reflected in prices. Let us see whether those prices, as far as the WiMAX bids are concerned, fall under weak, semi-strong or strong efficiency. Or none at all for that matter. If those prices fall under strong efficiency categorization, one has every reason to believe that YTL e-Solutions is going to win one of the licenses.

Let us see if those science fictions I learned at Michigan would bring some quick buck.

Categories
Liberty Science & technology

[1110] Of liberty-threatening technology applications

Technology has no inherent value by itself. Just like any tool, it sits neutrally in the middle of value spectrum. Such neutrality however does not prevent any technology from being utilized towards specific value, be it for better or worse. Nuclear technology for instance could be harnessed to provide humanity with electricity or as weapon, to strike terror to us all. Such duality is no different when it comes to closed-circuit television (CCTV) and radio frequency identification (RFID) in public space.

Both CCTV and RFID technologies are beneficial in many ways. Within private commercial spaces, both are used to make processes safer or more efficient or both. CCTV could be installed in places where no human could operate safely while RFID makes traceability of goods far easier. On the other end, if applied in public spaces, both infringe privacy.

CCTV perhaps needs no introduction. Between CCTV and RFID, the former has entered public consciousness far earlier in the 1990s. As a teenager, it was common for me then and even now to spot cameras in large stores. And I do remember there was a huge hype when CCTV was introduced along Malaysian expressways to discourage speeding. Despite public familiarity with CCTV, it is only until recently it has proliferated public sphere; the state is central to the proliferation. Cameras are installed in so many places by the state in the name of crime fighting that it chokes innocent but liberty-conscious persons.

I suppose, the first case of massive installation of cameras within public realm occurred in London. Given how frequent London is cited in any debate regarding CCTV and privacy, I would venture to say that London might have been the pioneer in the introduction of CCTV within public space. That might not be true and might be the result of a biased observation because I used to visit Samizdata — a UK-based libertarian group blog — frequently.

Nevertheless, from London or whatever it might originate from, the idea of CCTV within public space has reached Kuala Lumpur. While in the UK, the introduction has met some resistance, in Malaysia, I have yet to meet any protest at all, apart from myself. The image of Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-four has been recalled again and again by those that oppose the installation of cameras in public areas but I do believe Oceania fits Malaysia better due to what I perceive as the willing acceptance of Malaysians of CCTV. I definitely refuse to accept CCTV in public space, more so if the operator of the CCTV is an illiberal state. The moral police would especially cherish the idea of electronic Mat Skodeng.

While CCTV could be a threat to privacy, RFID could be as many times more hostile to civil liberties.

I might have encountered RFID far earlier than I thought I had but my first conscious exposure to it was during a consulting competition at Michigan. During a research, I learned how RFID is used to record inventory and through such information, the realization of just-in-time philosophy that Wal-Mart practices. Despite the positive aspect of it, just like CCTV, the utilization of RFID within public realm is questionable from civil liberty point of view.

Malaysian passport for instance uses RFID. In fact, it is the first RFID-passport in the world. The RFID chip within the passport contains sensitive personal information and that information could scanned and read from afar. Many advocates of RFID insists that information within the chip is secured. Nevertheless, there are reports that point to the contrary. At a blog by Reuters:

With the debate over genetic cloning in full swing, hackers could not have cared less at a conference in New York City, where two presenters demonstrated the electronic equivalent of making a copy of an implanted RFID or radio frequency ID chip.

The point was to show just how easy it is to fool a detection device that purports to uniquely identify any individual.

As time progresses, it is all too possible to track everybody with RFID. At the hand of illiberal bureaucrats that respect no right, RFID could be the tool to suppress civil liberties. This used to belong in the realm of science fiction. Soon, too soon, it will be science.

Despite the rant, I am not an anti-technology or back-to-the-primitive preacher. On the contrary, I believe technology should be used to enhance our living experience. Technologies such as carbon sequestering to reduce carbon emissions and life-saving stem cell technology are essential to build a bright future for us and our children. But when any technology is used at the expense of certain ideals, it is only right to oppose such application.