Categories
Economics

[2542] The ageism of minimum wage

In general, minimum wage affects the labor market negatively. At some level, it will increase the unemployment rate. That may happen either through direct disemployment as employers struggle to meet the cost, or through the freezing or insufficient job creation growth as the labor force increase. Whatever it is, I believe the relationship between minimum wage and unemployment rate is relatively well-publicized and many who are serious about the issue do know of the relationship. The lay proponents of minimum wage still promote their policy but they do know that relationship is a wall to scale.

There are other less publicly known effects. Discrimination against small firms is one. The adverse impact on low-skilled workers is two. There are others.

Here is another and it is the distribution effect across age.

Consider two workers of the same skills. Worker A is 25 years old. Worker B is 50 years old.

Both qualify for minimum wage.

If an employer had to choose between the two for a low-skilled job, which would the employer employ?

Without hesitation, I would take the younger one if I was the employer.

Between a 25 years old and at 50 years old, it is very likely that the 25 years old will be the preferred choice of anyone with profit-motive. He is young and that means he has better health than his older counterpart in general. There are other factors of course like attitude and initiative (if the particular person in his 20s is a damn punk and the 50 years old person is a nice old lady, I will employ the lady) but there are many reasons to think that an employer can squeeze more productivity out of the young worker than out of the older worker for a given wage, on average.

For those who know their economic jargon, then that means the younger worker offers better marginal product than the older worker will on average. In simpler terms, the younger worker offers greater productivity than the older worker.

How about experience? Surely experience works in favor of the older workers, right? Remember however that low-skilled jobs require little training. The kind of jobs requires no or little experience. That effectively discounts experience as a consideration.

When one pays a person according to his or her productivity without any restriction on compensation, then one can employ anybody up to any number until your last marginal product of labor is no longer positive. Note the causality: your productivity determines your wage. The first determination is your productivity and your wage is a function of your productivity.

Under minimum wage, the wage is the first determination and your productivity now is a function of your wages. Here, wage is the first determination because an employ know his cost and he will want to find workers with the productivity that matches the cost that is minimum wage. This immediately limit the kind of workers that the employer will employ.

Now, go back to the productivity of the young and the older workers mentioned in the beginning. Older workers will have lower productivity to younger workers. That is an immediate disadvantage in terms of employability in the age of minimum wage.

I think this point is important because a lot of younger workers do not really need a job. Many are out of school and are merely looking for extra pocket money to have some fun. These young workers will qualify for minimum wage. They do not need the jobs. The jobs are merely summer job so-to-speak, not necessarily part-time too.

Compare this to older workers who qualify for minimum wage. This type of older workers will likely need the minimum wage jobs more than the younger workers. They are in it to survive.

Controlling for everything else, minimum wage can hurt the workers that, arguably, the policy of minimum wage is supposed to help. Yet, the policy hurt those that it is set out to help.

Categories
Economics

[2531] PEMANDU and its real significance to private investment

PEMANDU claims “confidence from the ETP saw private investment hit RM94 billion and RM131 billion worth of GNI generated in 2011.”

A bold claim.

Let us see the trend of private investment in the last 11 years.

Do you see anything special about 2010 and 2011?

What I see is only a reversion to mean. What I see is that there is something in the economy that causes that. That something is bigger than PEMANDU.

Note also that in 2009, there was a severe recession. What that means is that there was a temporary disruption, and the subsequent recovery was just a reversion to mean (i.e. delayed investment planned before the recession, or just typical investment that happens as the economy goes along that requires no further incentive), not because of PEMANDU.

Yet PEMANDU claims that it is the cause.

You know when PEMANDU can make that claims of theirs? When those points are significantly above the line. That will probably happen in 2012 or 2013 with the construction of the MRT. Until then, no.

The figures for private investment can be verified by consulting the Bank Negara’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin.

Categories
Economics

[2529] Malaysian household income evolution by ethnicity, 1970-2009

There are a lot of conversations about income these days. In Malaysia, the conversations also get a bit racial sometimes. But how did it look like over the past years?

The following describes the average Malaysian household monthly income (pre-tax) according to ethnicity:

This is in nominal ringgit, i.e. it does not account for inflation.

I believe this (the total series) should be read with my entry on 2010 average household expenditure (which states that average nominal expenditure was RM2,200) and the 1999 average household expenditure according to income class. That is especially so to clear up the disagreement about saving and investment that was brought up in the comment section of the former entry,  i.e. expenditure does not equal income and that means saving or investment activities are not included as part of expenditure. As you can see, 2010 expenditure for an average Malaysian household was about RM2,200. Compare that to the 2009 income, which was RM4,000. The more or less RM1,800 difference between the expenditure and income is likely either saving or investment.

Categories
Economics

[2528] (Peninsular) Malaysian household expenditure by income class in 1999

The following describes expenditure pattern of average Malaysian household of different (monthly) income class in 1999.

This is based on the Department of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey published in 2000.

Categories
Economics

[2527] Understanding indices

[audio:20120322BfmIndices.mp3]

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
So I found myself on BFM radio last week, talking about indices. I thought I sort of flustered a little bit and I answered a particular question quite unsatisfactorily. The host asked, why the change is more important than the actual level.

I should have said, because the base is really arbitrarily chosen. Because it is arbitrarily chosen, the level is meaningless most of the time, especially without ranking as reference.

Listen to the interview and you will know what I am talking about.