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Economics Society

[2669] Why does he not get a job?

I fancy myself as an economist. After more or less of six years of economic traning and several more years working as an economist, I think I can call myself as such without too much pretension. While I do like to claim that I know more economics than a typical layperson, I have to admit that sometimes, I do wonder about basic stuff that economists supposedly know like the back of your hand. When I see an unemployed begging on the streets or scouring the trash for something to sell, I really do wonder, why is he or she not working.

One can be absolutely optimistic and assert that begging or scouring the trash is a kind of employment. It is not a pretty thing to say and much less do but the person is doing something. Employment can be defined as something that one does to earn a living. One can earn a living by doing just so. There are even professional beggars too these days although the profession is not something one would put down in his or her tax return forms.

It all comes down to definitional matters and it is a matter of how tightly one wants to define the term unemployment. Truly, it is hard to imagine why unemployment exists in a very efficient economy. There is no bill on the sidewalk so-to-speak where everybody can be an entrepreneur. Begging and scouring the trash are a type of entrepreneurship if one thinks of it, however ridiculous it sounds. Those who beg on their own (discounting the professional beggars) are doing something for a living and it brings them income.

But let us make an exception. Let us just take begging, scouring the trash and the likes minus the professional kind as not employment but only something one does when one is desperately and involuntarily out of work instead. I am sure, if I was to lose my job and forced to beg on the streets, I would call myself involuntarily unemployed. I would consider it as an insult to be called employed if I was reduced to a beggar.

It is with the exception that I find it odd that somebody can be unemployed especially in an economy that Malaysia has, which enjoys pretty strong long-term growth and (very) low unemployment rate. Are the unemployed who exist really that lucky that they are one of those few involuntarily unemployed in the country?

Perhaps it is unrealistic to expect anybody can be an entrepreneur. Entrepreneurship requires ideas and not everybody can come up with an idea, regardless whether it is brilliant, unoriginal or just plain stupid. So the unimaginative mind discounts the case of no unemployment based on the idea that everybody can be an entrepreneur. Never mind that not everything imaginable in this world is profitable. So instead of continuously making a loss, the state of unemployment can be the right situation to be in as it limits those losses.

That may create an opportunity for unemployment to exist especially within the mainstream economics way of understanding it: that unemployment exists because of insufficient aggregate demand in the economy. That particular understanding of the phenomenon explains the issue of involuntary unemployment. In a recession, the cause of unemployment can be painfully clear. But that is at the macroeconomic level. I am more interested in the microeconomic explanation. Maybe the macro-micro differentiation is unclean here but I hope I get to send across what I mean.

Notwithstanding the point on macro-micro dichotomy, we are far from being in a recession. That makes it hard for me to comprehend why some involuntary unemployment exists, especially those who beg on the streets and is suffering while begging. The Malaysian reality for these unemployed is such a way that begging is not the best option available, or at least if I were put in shoes of the unemployed with all of my savings and the necessary support structure that I currently enjoy were unavailable to me, I would find my hypothetical state of unemployment as insufferable. If having a paying job is always superior to being unemployed, then there are low-skilled jobs everywhere that I look and I would take it.

I see everywhere eateries dotting the streets and these eateries are always busy. Surely, they do need some extra hands. Some small effort of enquiring the operators of those eateries can be a great start to getting out of employment. And when one goes to fast-food restaurants, these restaurants are perpetually hiring. Every time I pass by McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza, whatever, the fact of vacancy is hard to be ignored. I am unsure about other industries but looking at recent manufacturing production, at the very least, it is hard to think that they are retrenching people (although in the fourth quarter of 2013, retrenchment spiked and there are reports that manufacturing plants are closing down and moving away due to minimum wage policy).

There are job search costs obviously in temporal, pecuniary and effort terms. But low-skilled, low-paying jobs do not require too much of that cost and certainly, not insider information that is typically needed for high-skilled, high-paying jobs. Maybe, the desperate cannot travel to search for job and that creates unemployment in the specific kind that I am referring to. Indeed, one needs to travel wide in Kuala Lumpur to see these vacancies and witnesses also some beggars on the streets. Still, I have seen a business advertising vacancy and there was a homeless man across the street. The cost of crossing the street cannot be so great that that street cannot be crossed. If it was in the affirmative, it would be the height of ridiculousness.

The state of homelessness may complicate the scenario because many employers need to an applicant’s contact details if the employers need to get back to the applicants. A begging homeless person has not contact details in the traditional sense. That may be the barrier to employment and it may be the inflexibility of businesses that cause unemployment in this sense. I think I can support some state action to help any homeless persons to get a job. Effort is important and if a homeless person is applying to a job, then someone and unfortunately the state, should find a way to help the homeless apply for the job while employers should be more flexible in their requirement so that the unemployed homeless do not find themselves in a conundrum: I can only get a job if I have contact details but I can afford contact details only if I have a job. Somebody needs to be break the cycle.

Being an illegal alien may also contribute to employment because the law does discriminate against illegal immigrants.

But really, even counting homelessness into account, there are many business establishment, those eateries by the streets in KL, even those restaurants by the streets under the trees, are not really much into bureaucracy. I even doubt those establishments even fully disclose their tax information. So contact information and illegal status are hardly a consideration for very small businesses.

But beyond homelessness (I have a feeling that homelessness is a small factor in the state of unemployment) and illegal aliens, within the context of Kuala Lumpur, that of a relatively strong economy and low unemployment rate, I struggle to understand why a person can be unemployed when clearly, being unemployed is undesirable to a person. Unless the person fakes his condition, some beggars that I spotted looked miserable it appeared to me that the beggars needed jobs.

I have been thinking about this for a long time now, ever since that man came up to me at a gas station and asked me for money. I refused him and I felt bad as I thought myself, maybe it was in a tough spot. I began to felt less bad when I saw him again some weeks later, and again after that multiple of times.

Why does he not just get a job?

He has no disability, physically and mentally. Clearly he is capable of work.

Is there some kind of psychological explanation?

Categories
Economics

[2664] More on actual weakness of the Malaysian economy in the fourth quarter

As I have written last week, Malaysia’s 6.4% real GDP growth from a year ago in the fourth quarter of the year hides actual relative weakness in the economy. Consumption growth, investment growth and government expenditure growth slowed. Trade contracted. What contributed to faster overall growth was that both exports and imports decreased in a way that made trade surplus erosion less bad.

That is from the demand side. The weakness can be also be seen from the supply side, specifically, from the labor market.

The Department of Statistics late last week released its monthly labor survey report, which does typically receive much less fanfare. The report simply backs up what I wrote, that economic growth in the fourth quarter was weaker than what the headline GDP number suggests. And definitely less of a bang than most politicians (and pro-Barisan Nasional journalists) suggest. But forgive them. It is an election year.

The average quarterly unemployment rate in the fourth quarter was approximately 3.1%, which was slightly higher than rates in the earlier quarters. Using the Department of Statistics’ seasonal adjustment method, the average quarterly rate came at 3.3%, and that created even more divergence when compared to seasonal adjusted rates in other quarters in the year. You can see the rates here:

2012DecUnemploymentRateQuarterly

It needs to be said that in the wider scheme of things, the unemployment rate is low. Just to stress on the grand-scheme-of-things perspective, here are the monthly rates which the quarterly rates are derived from (note the vertical axis and contrast it with the previous chart):

2012DecUnemploymentRateMonthly

Nevertheless, I think the actual weakness of the economy can be seen clearer in the retrenchment statistics as released by the by Ministry of Human Resources (which is an even less observed statistics in the financial industry):

2012Retrenchmentstatistics

That is a big jump. Not as big as those seen in 2009 recession. I have not run any regression to investigate this further but it does appear to say something about the economy in the fourth quarter.

Categories
Economics

[2663] A quick reaction to Malaysia’s RGDP growth for the fourth quarter: irony and non-celebration

So, the Malaysian economy grew by 6.4% from a year ago in the final quarter of 2012.

When I first saw the headline figure, I was pleasantly surprised. Upon closer inspection however, the whole growth figures appeared weird. After I figured out why it was weird, I became uncomfortable with the high growth rate.

Domestic demand growth slowed significantly (it slowed by 3.9 percentage points in fact from the last quarter). That was the first sign that something was not right. The private demand growth figure is particularly worrying. I had expected its growth to moderate slightly but it slowed by 2.4 percentage points (ppt). That is a lot.

Here comes the ultimate irony: trade saved Malaysia. Despite the bad trade numbers we saw throughout the quarter, the one that pushed growth way above market consensus in change in change was net exports. This is where the weirdness comes in: both exports and imports contracted.

So, with domestic demand down, exports down and imports down, I would not celebrate too much. Would anybody celebrate a 6.4% growth that was caused by those contractions?

The fourth quarter trade surplus is not the kind of surplus I like.

Look at the year-on-year growth and compare the 4Q growth with 3Q:

  1. government expenditure: growth slowed by 1.2 ppt. This is small because it corresponds to only RM0.1 billion change in change.
  2. private consumption: growth slowed by 2.4 ppt. This is huge chunk: RM2.2 billion change in change.
  3. investment, which I take as gross fixed capital (instead of gross fixed capital formation); growth slowed by 14.2 ppt. RM6.4 billion change in change.
  4. net exports: its rate of deterioration slowed by 44.4 ppt down. Words may fail me here. To be clear, there was a trade surplus. I am referring to the rate of deterioration of trade surplus and it has slowed down. RM11.1 billion change in change.

So, if you think in this terms, the lower rate of deterioration of net exports or in better phrase, trade surplus, provided considerable room for faster overall growth. Graphically:

20130212GDPNX

At the end of the day, the high 6.4% growth hides something worrying: the 6.4% growth was only possible because of mathematical interactions. Domestic demand and total trade did relatively badly.

On the bright side however, the future may appear to be much better than the fourth quarter. And I think it is important to emphasize that even without the improvement in change in trade surplus, the domestic economy did grow anyway.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
p/s — I just want to add that I am not accusing the statistics authority of data manipulation, which is the feeling I get some others have gotten, especially those whom are very anti-establishment. When I wrote that the number hid something worrying, I did not mean to suggest the authority was hiding something. I merely meant to say there was more story behind the headline number. I sincerely apologize if I had convinced you that there was malice involved. I do disagree with that accusation that the authority manipulated the data.

p/s 2 — you can see the net exports level although looking at the level while thinking in change in change can be difficult:

20130212GDPNXlevel

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2662] Guess the GDP growth rate!

How fast, do you think, did the Malaysian economy grow in the fourth quarter of 2012 in real terms from a year ago?

  • 6% and above (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 5.5%-5.9% (16%, 3 Votes)
  • 5.0%-5.4% (47%, 9 Votes)
  • 4.5%-4.9% (11%, 2 Votes)
  • 4.0%-4.4% (5%, 1 Votes)
  • Less than 4.0% (21%, 4 Votes)

Total Voters: 19

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Here is some background. Malaysian exports did badly in the fourth quarter. Europe and the US suffered from contraction at the same time.

Nevertheless, domestic demand appeared strong. Private consumption growth was likely pretty solid.

In the first, second and third quarter, the real GDP grew by 5.1%, 5.6% and 5.2% from a year ago respectively.

Out of 21 private economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the median estimate is 5.5% growth. The highest projection is 6.4%. The lowest is 4.3%. My own model estimates it to be 5.2% (this is based on old data and I have not touched it for almost two months).

But they are economists. What do they know, eh?

So, what is your favorite number?

The official GDP numbers will be released tomorrow by the Department of Statistics.

Categories
Economics

[2661] For the gazillionth time, 2009 was a recession year

Idris Jala in his column in The Star today wrote something that I have always found disagreeable (or maybe since 2010 when I first encountered this kind of argument):

In just two years, we increased our GNI per capita by 45% from US$6,700 in December 2009 to US$9,700 in December 2011, a rare feat in today’s world. [Idris Jala. Davos Takeaways. The Star. February 2013]

My issue has always been the 2009 baseline because the year was a recession year. Because of that, a large portion of growth since 2009 originated from recovery, which has little to do with Pemandu and more importantly, it has little to do with structural growth. In simpler words, it was cyclical growth. The base was extremely low by recent standards. Any post-recovery year level will register high growth rate compared to the base. I have written something similar about this nearly three years ago.

To control for that low base, it is imperative to measure it from previous local maximum. In this case, 2008.

Here is a bar chart of yearly growth of nominal GDP per capita for Malaysia as obtained from the World Bank (the difference between GDP and GNI for Malaysia is relatively small. Whatever pattern you see in GDP, you will very likely see the same pattern in GNI as far as Malaysia is concerned, as long as the dimension is consistent, i.e. compare real numbers with real numbers, or nominal with nominal):

Nominal GDP per capita Malaysia

Now, if you measure 2011 GDP per capita in nominal terms since the recession year of 2009 as Idris Jala had done with his nominal GNI figures, 2009-2011 growth would be 37.9% (contrast this with Idris Jala’s 45% claims. Let us assume good faith that the difference is due to honest calculation; population size and actual GNI calculation could be different. The difference between GDP and GNI could contribute to it as well. Data source could be a culprit as well as the Department of Statistics last year updated and improved its time series to include more data, never mind the exchange rate given that it is nominal GDP expressed in USD). It means yearly average of nominal GDP per capita growth is 8.4%.

If you measure that GDP per capita growth based on what I said, 2008-2011 growth would be lower at 18.8%. The yearly average from 2008 to 2011 is 4.4%.

The difference says a lot. It says out of that 37.9% growth, about half of that growth was due to recovery. And that recovery had a lot to do with external demand…

Really, if you look at the chart, meaningful growth, i.e. growth gained after we had caught up with the old level, only came largely in 2011. There was no growth in 2009. We only got back to where we started in 2010. In 2011, we finally grew (the same narrative is true for real numbers as well).

The problem with Idris Jala and company is that they like to use the 2009 baseline as a proof that they are doing good. Based on their narrative, whatever they are doing is reflected in the growth numbers. After all, Najib came to power after forcing Abdullah to come down in 2009. In the same year, Pemandu was established by the new Prime Minister. You see, the correlation is perfect!

But any respectable person will know correlation is not causation. And in this case, Pemandu and Najib are only a coincidental third variable that exhibits correlation because they were lucky to be whatever they were at the most serendipitous time.

For the recent 2012 growth (2012 versus 2011), then maybe something can be credited to Pemandu. For previous recent growth, it just takes too much dishonesty and audacity to say a majority of growth from 2009 to 2011 could be credited to Pemandu. And given the low base effect, measuring growth from 2009 gives an overly sunny growth number that ignores the context of recession.

And of course, in the game of claiming undue credits, the larger the number, the better it is. Be damn with context.