Categories
Economics WDYT

[2814] Guess the 4Q15 GDP growth rate

The Department of Statistics will release the GDP figures for the last quarter of 2015 tomorrow.

I fear we will see the ugliest numbers within the past three years, if we are lucky. It will not be a contraction but for a country like Malaysia — a young population which suggests strong potential growth — anything close to 4% YoY is pretty bad. In 1Q13, the GDP grew 4.3% YoY. To find something worse, you will have to go all the way back to 2009 during the last recession.

I think private consumption growth decelerated in the last quarter. In 3Q15, it expanded only 4.1% YoY after increasing 6.4% YoY. If I have to guess, the GST is having a prolonged negative impact on the economy, on top of other things happening. The various layoffs we saw last year added further stress to consumption growth. These people who lost their jobs should begin to cut their spending. I have also heard discouraging stories over the Chinese New Year, suggesting it is not over yet, which made me re-read a joke I wrote three years ago that is no longer funny. I have also noticed many oil and gas professionals are turning to Uber to meet their financial obligations.

At work as well, we maintain various index measuring all kinds of things from sentiment to spending pattern. I cannot share them with you but I can tell you, it ain’t pretty.

But perhaps, the surest indication of a slower economy beyond anecdotes is from the manufacturing side. The GDP does follow industrial growth rather closely. So closely in fact, you could make a decent econometric forecast based on the index. The following chart comparing GDP with industrial growth gives you an idea of what had happened in the quarter.

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia

Another piece of bad news is the government is in love with its deficit target out of fear of credit rating downgrade. I generally supportive of cutting the deficit but this is the wrong time to do it. But, I am just a keyboard warrior.

Exports however might cushion the domestic slowdown. In the fourth quarter, I think, it finally exhibited a J-curve, which essentially describes the idea that exports would slow rise up after a currency depreciation. Indeed, exports to the US have been phenomenal for a number of months now. Overall exports of goods have grown faster in 4Q15 on yearly terms compared to the previous quarter. But it will not be enough to fight off the domestic growth slowdown.

At the end of the day, this keyboard warrior’s model suggests the 4Q15 GDP growth will be around 4.2%-4.4% YoY.

But I could be wrong. Could you do better?

This not-nearly-as-scientific poll will close at noon tomorrow when the official GDP figures are out.

How fast did the Malaysian economy grow in 4Q15 from a year ago?

  • 2% or slower (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 2.1%-3.0% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 3.1%-3.5% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 3.6%-4.0% (36%, 4 Votes)
  • 4.1%-4.5% (36%, 4 Votes)
  • 4.6%-5.0% (27%, 3 Votes)
  • Faster than 5.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 11

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Oh, this post is dedicated to this man.

Categories
Conflict & disaster Economics Society

[2812] Government failure causes bauxite vigilantism

Powder kegs that are too close to the fire. That is the situation in Kuantan right now.

Local residents frustrated by the rampant bauxite pollution are beginning to take matters into their own hands. Threats have been made and carried out. Trucks carrying the mineral burned by the angry mob. Vigilantism is on the rise.

Vigilante justice is always worrying but it is hard to blame the local residents for resorting to it. When non-violent ways failed to address their grievances, they are left with less than desirable devices. Like it or not, vigilantism is a solution available when the typical mechanisms ”• market and government ”• are not working.

The free market usually provides robust solutions to a myriad of problems big and small. But such a market does not exist magically out of nothing. It is a human institution running on implicit human rules arising from our daily interactions with other fellow beings. As with any human creation, it can be imperfect. At times it can fail disastrously.

The market will disappoint the strongest supporters of the laissez-faire approach when too much of profits are privatized while too much of costs are passed on to the public with impunity. In economic jargon, that cost is called negative externality.

The tragedy of the commons is the oft-cited theoretical example of market failure involving extreme externality. Without any intervention to correct the misaligned private and public incentives, the benefits will be exhausted and the commons will collapse.

The negative effects of climate change are examples of market failure of global proportions.

Closer to home, I would submit the massive bauxite pollution in Kuantan, Pahang as a disturbing local case. The miners and the landowners reap their windfall profits but the rest bears the cost of the pollution.

Heavy red dust now contaminates the local air and water supply and that creates severe health threats to residents. One can only imagine the fate of whatever wildlife left in the plantations where the topsoil has been removed to feed China’s ferocious appetite for more bauxite.

When the market fails, then it is the responsibility of the government to step in and realign the diverging private and public incentives to produce a better outcome for both sides.

The typical solution involves taxing mining activities heavily, imposing strict production quotas or regulating the industry tightly in some ways to force the beneficiaries to take into account the disregarded general welfare.

But from the very beginning when the mining began, the government at the Pahang state level is not doing its job as the industry regulator and as the guardian of public welfare. Not enough has been done to correct the market failure. By definition, that is government failure.

Factors contributing to market failure mostly are innocent despite the grave consequences as it usually involves people minding their own legitimate business. It is always the government’s job to understand those businesses so that if there is any negative externality or conflict, then the authorities can come in and arbitrate any dispute. Any libertarian mindful of market failure will take this as one of the major roles of government.

In contrast ”• if it is not incompetence or inadequate powers ”• government failure is almost always about conflict of interest. In the case of Kuantan, it does seem like yet another case of conflict of interest.

For one, reports suggest the Pahang state government received more than RM37 million in revenue last year from bauxite mining. That figure will increase significantly once the state government doubles its current tariff rate on production to RM8 per ton.

The sum is significant for a government with a budgeted spending close to RM900 million in 2015. In a country where the concept of separation of powers is weak, the state’s fiscal interest can be hard to overcome.

But more troublingly, there are pictures circulating on the Internet, creating the allegations that some of the landowners enjoying the modern day gold rush are quite influential and close to the state government.

Information from the Internet may be wrong. While the local media has done a good job at reporting the impact of the pollution, not too many are investigating the identity of the landowners and the miners. Perhaps that is the cost of the culture of fear we have in Malaysia. Public welfare is suffering from gross disrespect for free press.

The federal government has come in to suspend the mining activities temporarily to order to study whether any environmental law has been breached. It is unclear if the suspension will mean anything or even be effective but one thing is certain: the issue falls firmly within the ambit of the state while the federal government is even more reluctant to do anything conclusive especially since Pahang is the political base of the prime minister. With so many troubles in other states, would he risk the ire of local politicians to do the right thing?

These are disheartening facts. Unless the conflict of interest is addressed strongly, the state and the federal government will likely continue to do too little, thus guaranteeing the continuing government and market failures.

I fear, at the rate we are going, the whole episode will lead to a period of persistent vigilantism. Down that slope ”• however far down the slope is ”• is a general breakdown in law and order. Miners are already employing thugs to protect the trucks from vigilantism. That sounds awfully close to anarchy.

But then again, does law and order mean anything these days? When the top leadership has no moral authority, will the so-called Little Napoleons down the line be impressed by any necessary directive from the top?

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malay Mail on January 5 2015.

Categories
Economics Society

[2807] Break-up the Bumiputra category into finer details

Race politics dominates Malaysia and our deplorable politics have us Malaysians as Bumiputras, Chinese, Indians and others.

At the center of it all is Malay politics. Yet, public statistics on Malay welfare are imprecise. This is true for household income and expenditure surveys conducted and published by the Department of Statistics. The surveys are the most comprehensive snapshots we have on the welfare of Malaysian households.

It is imprecise because the best we have to describe Malay welfare are not Malay statistics, but Bumiputra statistics.

The way the statistics is presented (or even measured) strengthens the flawed notion that the Bumiputras are Malays. Yet, we know the Bumiputras comprise not just the Malays but also the Orang Aslis in the Peninsula, and the Borneo natives.

Foreigners in particular are guilty of this but more unforgivably, so do the locals. When ethno-nationalist Malays want to back their point with hard data for instance, they would go to the household surveys and cite the Bumiputra figures as proofs, casually suggesting all Bumiputras are Malays with no hesitation as if there is nothing wrong with the statistics.

Our contemporary politics also means the recognition is not merely a pedantic concern. Sarawak parties especially are becoming increasingly important nationally, possibly convincing the federal government to spend more money there.

How can this be relevant? For example, I would like to know change in welfare of those Borneo native households as federal spending increases. It is not enough to claim they would do better because of the spending. We need data and it is certainly not enough with the Bumiputra net cast so widely.

So, as far as the category Bumiputra is concerned, I think it should be broken into its finer components to allow us to see exactly the state of various groups’ welfare.

After all, is it not ironic that for all the centrality of Malay politics, statistics on Malay welfare is not available on its own? We can know the income of the median Chinese and Indian households but we cannot know the median for Malay families. To belabor the point, what we know instead are Bumiputra statistics, which are at best a proxy to the state of the Malays. And we know it is a proxy because we know the Malays make-up the majority within the group. How big a majority? Interesting question, is it not?

And we also know how mean and median behave mathematically. Change in population will change both easily.

I have a lingering suspicion that the Malays are doing better than the reported Bumiputra average/median. My suspicion is based on the fact most Malays live in the Peninsula while the statistics show the Peninsula as a geographic group does better than the Malaysian Borneo (even when certain states such as Kelantan can do worse than Sarawak). The only way to conclusively address the suspicion is to look at the Bumiputra components cleverer than what we have been doing so far.

At the very least, regardless of my suspicion, improvement in reported welfare statistics with the Bumiputra category split into its constitutions can lead to better public debates and better policies. Without the split, we are forever condemned to debate from imprecise premises.

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2805] Guess the Malaysian 3Q15 GDP growth

Growth in 2Q15 was bad but we know it due to the GST with all the front-loading spending.

The question now is, was the GST largely the one exerting negative pressure on growth?

In a very superficial way, growth should rebound in 3Q15 if the answer to the question is in the affirmative because it suggests consumption would return to normal.

If not, we should see worse growth in the last quarter, and possibly bigger trouble ahead.

Things are quite confusing for me at the moment because of the GST as well as due to low energy prices. Inflation has stopped being a useful proxy to demand and is out of wack. It is driven by cost factor and not really demand. I have not figured out how to handle this yet but things might only stabilize April next year, assuming energy prices remain at about current levels.

There are signs something bigger than GST is at work. The service sector is not doing too well. We know this from official 3Q15 statistics. Service growth was mostly pulled down by the finance sector, but retail growth also moderated. I am also hearing many anecdotes of personal hardship with greater frequency than usual. Some of my friends run businesses and they are not doing great either. I usually would dismiss anecdotes but I dare not do it this time around. There are just too many of them.

But there are good news. Industrial production did well, and so did construction and exports.

Net exports should give a big boost to the GDP, cushioning any expected slowdown in the domestic economy. I do not know how long the export strength will last, but for 3Q15, it looks like we had the two engine-model back. The weak ringgit might have a contributing factor, but I think it is a bit too soon to pass judgment about currency and competitiveness despite the temptation to claim so.

But, yea, the only reason I write this post is to do this poll:

How fast did the Malaysian economy grow in 3Q15 from a year ago?

  • 3.0% or slower (17%, 2 Votes)
  • 3.1%-4.0% (8%, 1 Votes)
  • 4.1%-4.5% (42%, 5 Votes)
  • 4.6%-5.0% (33%, 4 Votes)
  • 5.1%-5.5% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Faster than 5.5% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 12

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The official GDP figures will be released midday tomorrow.

 

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[2804] TPP exit clause makes sovereignty concerns irrelevant

Text to the Transpacific Partnership came out today. I have yet to go through it fully. It is massive and it can be technical. It is worse than Sejarah Melayu. It will take time.

Nevertheless, I attended a briefing at the trade ministry earlier today and I think I understand the gist of the most important chapters. My somewhat initial impression: there are damn lots of exemptions.

All these exemptions — including the continued maintenance of the Bumiputra policy, flexibility to government procurement for up to 25 years after signing/ratification much to the benefits of local firms and even what appears to be status quo for a lot of GLICs and GLCs — should allay nationalists, protectionists and anti-globalization groups’ fears that Malaysia is surrendering our policy space to foreign governments and multinationals.

In fact, there are so many exemptions that I am unsure I should support the agreement as strongly as I did previously, notwithstanding progress made on market access and tariffs. I have always understood that any FTA is not a real free trade. We live in a imperfect world and I realize that much, but the exclusions Malaysia won exceed my expectations. Hence, my surprise.

But the one clause that blows those ”sovereignty” concerns out of the water is the exit option stated in the last chapter of the agreement. The TPP allows any country to quit the group unilaterally by giving a 6-month notice without incurring any penalty.

The easy exit clause means most of the requirements under TPP, like the extension of copyrights from 50 to 70 years and protections for biologics, are reversible by simply quitting the TPP. I reject the sovereignty argument but, if joining the TPP means losing national sovereignty, then the ability to quit and to reverse those policies must mean Malaysia is always be in control of its policy space.

(Not everything is reversible however. For instance, as I understand it the WTO disallows import tariffs to go up from any point of time and it does seem the TPP’s lower tariffs would be applicable even in the case of exit… I am unsure how post-TPP-exit discriminatory tariffs would work within WTO settings however. We need a trade law expert to answer that hypothetical.)

At the very least, the exit option lowers the cost and risk of joining the grouping.

Whatever it is, I come from the perspective we should always strive to create a rules-based world and then makes the rules as transparent as possible. To say it differently, we should reduce the discretionary powers from the authority as much as possible whenever it makes sense. I suppose, this originates from my libertarian tendency to control powers, be it states, companies or individuals.

In any case, I am a bit disappointed with the concessions Malaysia won, especially in terms of government procurement, state-owned enterprises and Bumiputra policy. I had believed TPP could liberalize Malaysia further more than local politics would allow it. Politics won.

Yet, I think I can stomach that. All this is a process and there will be another time. And right now, the TPP as it is seems okay to me. As I told somebody earlier today, better in than out.

Or, better we set the rules from a position of strength instead of wanting to join later and having to accept the rules from a weaker position.

Touching on the exemptions again, perhaps in retrospect we had too much strength at the negotiating table.