Author: Hafiz Noor Shams

For more about me, please read this.

Categories
Personal Photography

[1304] Of climbing up on Solsbury Hill

Exactly a week ago, I found myself on top of one of the hills that make up the Klang Gates Ridge.

Some rights reserved. By Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams.

While I was up there, there were a few songs that kept playing in my mine. One of them was Peter Gabriel’s Solsbury Hill. Somehow, it was the right song for the right place at the right time.

Anyway, I think I have found a new hobby: solo climbing. So far in my life, there is no hobby that expresses my individualism as much as solo climbing. Somehow, solo climbing has strong connotation to obstacles to individualist effort to achieve greater height, literally. More importantly, I have found its philosophical attachment as extremely attractive. That, in turn, in one way or another, reminds me of Ayn Rand.

Categories
Liberty

[1303] Of is it censorship or abnormal traffic?

The wind over the Malaysian blogosphere has it that Malaysia Today is being censored in one way or the other.

I however am unsure what is going on because I failed to access MT directly and by proxy at one time or the other. I must also admit that when I could access MT, it would be easier to access it through a proxy server.

Screenshot by Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Public domain.

In the end, it might be just a case of abnormal traffic and limited bandwidth. So, I think it is wise to sit out and observe how this episode will develop in the next few hours instead of jumping on gun shouting fire.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — on the next morning, Saturday, at around 0700 hours, just before I am getting ready for a day hike, I am able to access MT just fine.

Screenshot by Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Public domain.

Maybe we all should stop taking that dose of sensationalism (sensationalism is okay, as long as it is true) for a little bit (by “that”, meaning, this). It could be that it was just TMNet offering bad service. It was Friday’s evening after all when traffic is likely to spike compared to weekday.

Masquerading speculation as truth is just not right.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1302] Of hail trade! Hail the NYT!

Hail to the NYT for staying with rationality, instead of populism.

Trade has been getting an unfair beating from Democrats. Party leaders backpedaled from their agreement with the White House to approve free trade pacts with Peru and Panama and are opposing the agreement with South Korea. They also refused to extend so-called fast track authority, which guarantees a simple up or down vote on trade deals. And Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — playing to the campaign crowds — are backing legislation that would punish China for manipulating its currency and, not incidentally, could trigger an ugly trade war.

Yet for all their concern about globalization’s impact on American workers, Democrats are going after the wrong targets. It is true that wages for most workers are going nowhere. Many fear for their jobs. But, as many centrist Democrats have argued for years, throttling trade would end up hurting a lot more people than it helped. [The Case for Trade. NYT. July 27 2007]

I however am not quite certain what is implied with this statement:

Research suggests that trade inspires less protectionist feelings in countries with bigger governments and bigger social safety nets. Promoting trade and helping America’s workers are two ideas that Democrats should get behind. [The Case for Trade. NYT. July 27 2007]

Categories
Environment Science & technology

[1301] Of bees, pollination and haze

One of the less emphasized environmental crises within the public sphere is the decline of bee population. The United States for some unknown reason is seeing a fall in bee population. The same story is being played out in Europe and after attending a public talk at the Zoo Negara last week, I found out that the same trend is applicable in Malaysia. The annual haze might contribute to the decline in a big way. Bees are natural pollinators and thus, they are precious to the agricultural industry. Any significant drop of population is expected to adversely affect production.

During the talk, a professor from a local public university showed how honey is traditionally harvested in Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia. It is quite amazing how the simple act of smoking a bee hive will chase the bees away and thus, making honey harvesting a less painful act. The professor continued to say that smoke disrupts communication between bees and disorients the insects.

If simple smoking could do that, imagine what weeks-long haze would do to the whole bee population found in Malaysia and other places that typical suffer from the haze originating from Indonesia annually?

The gravity of the matter is even more pronounced considering the fact the tropical trees only bloom once every 10 to 15 years. As mentioned earlier, bees play a large role in spreading pollens naturally. With haze happening on almost yearly basis, it is possible that the bees might fail to aid a pollination process and thus, disrupting a reproduction cycle.

The haze that several Southeast Asian countries experience almost every year has been going on for about a decade now. It is quite possible that a pollination process had occurred during that period.

If there is any disruption, the effect would not be visible immediately. There is a lag in the relevant causal relationship and therefore, we might need to wait a whole cycle to complete before we could observe how the haze is affecting reproduction process of floras.

If we are unlucky, it might be too late before we could do anything to rectify the matter.

Categories
Economics

[1300] Of the rate stays at 3.50%

In the US, a lot of people pay a lot of attention to what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has to say. In Malaysia, I do not feel that atmosphere whatever the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes. Partly because of that, the Malaysian economic scene is so boring compared to the US. The local economic discourse is limited to populism and hardly receives the academic attention economic news receive in the US. So, let us try to create that atmosphere here instead of complaining what a boring country we have. Be proactive baby!

First off, the MPC seems to have a template for the announcement regarding the overnight lending policy. If I may add, just like the FOMC. The first paragraph goes straight to the point.

In May:

At its meeting today, Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.50 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

At its meeting today, Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.50 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

So it stays. What a boring comment. They need to put in some spice into it, put in some mystery, like what Greenspan did, you know?

The second paragraph talks about Malaysian economic growth in general.

In May:

Despite the less favourable external environment which has had a moderating effect on Malaysia’s export growth, strong domestic demand has sustained the growth of the Malaysian economy. The public sector has also had an important positive impact on domestic economic activity. The Malaysian economy is therefore expected to sustain steady growth over the medium term. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

The overall growth of the Malaysian economy in the first half of the year has remained favourable with the slower growth in the external sector being balanced by stronger growth in domestic demand. During the second half of 2007, the growth momentum of the economy is expected to strengthen. Recent trade data suggest that the sustained growth in Malaysia’s major trading partner economies is starting to provide support to export growth. This will complement the robust growth in both domestic consumption and investment that is expected to be sustained for the rest of the year. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

The July statement seems to be more bullish in future prospect of the export component of the GDP. Concerning the export component, I wonder if it is caused by diversification. Also, I could not help but notice the word “public sector” in the May statement. That “public sector” probably refers to government spending. I also wonder if that “domestic demand” is caused by government spending.

Next paragraph clearly talks of the greatest enemy of most central bankers: inflation.

In May:

Inflation during the first four months of 2007 averaged 2.4% and has continued its downward trend. Going forward, the continued high prices of commodities and agricultural products, and the rise in global food prices could have implications for domestic food prices and overall inflation. Taking into account these developments and the low inflation prevailing currently, the expectations are that the average rate of inflation for 2007 would be within the projected range of 2-2.5 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

Inflation moderated in the first half of 2007 to a level of 1.4% in June and averaged 2% for the period as a whole. During the second half of 2007, inflation may edge up due to both domestic and external factors, but the average rate of inflation for 2007 is expected to be at the lower end of the projected range of 2-2.5 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

Considering the second as well as third paragraph of the July statement, it sounds like the policymakers are confused. Good, bad, going up, going down… Maybe, the word guarded celebration is in order. Or maybe, neutral bias?

I feel like they are mirroring their counterparts at the Federal Reserve, with a hint of oxymoron.

The last paragraph tries to describe the future.

In May:

Given the medium term outlook for inflation and economic growth, the current level of the policy rate remains appropriate. In view of the uncertainty in the external environment, developments in the international economy would be monitored closely. The future stance of monetary policy would be determined by Bank Negara Malaysia’s assessment of new data and information and its implications on the prospects for price stability and economic growth. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

The future stance of monetary policy would be determined by Bank Negara Malaysia’s assessment of new data and information and their implications on the medium-term prospects for price stability and economic growth. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

In May, the confusion is pronounced. In July, the explicit signal for uncertainty is gone. Odd. Does that mean Bank Negara feels the economy is growing at a good pace while inflation is comfortably low?