Categories
Politics & government

[2482] A big coup for DAP?

Mohd Ariff Sabri Abdul Aziz and Aspan Alias are joining the DAP. This is big because it is yet another big step in widening the party’s appeal to the larger Malaysian demographics.

Let us face it. The DAP is mainly seen as a Chinese party. The characterization may be unfair to some extent because there is significant number of Indians in the party and there are definitely Malays in it. But the party derives its support mainly from Chinese areas and I do not think that can be dismissed easily. Even if it was untrue, the typical Malays who can be counted on to vote for UMNO and Barisan Nasional see the DAP a Chinese party. As the cliché goes, in politics, perception matters.

This is a problem because if the DAP needs to survive in the long term, it cannot merely depend on Chinese voters and other non-Malays/non-Bumiputras. The Chinese demographics is not inspiring from the perspective of electoral politics. It is shrinking due to both the relative prosperity of the community vis-à-vis the general population (number of child per couple/per person drops as prosperity increases; happens almost everywhere) and emigration. To secure its future, the DAP needs to be more Malaysian and that means more diversified support base. That also means non-urban voters.

There are efforts to do that. In the several months after I returned to Malaysia, I managed to observe the DAP machinery during the Sarawak election, thanks to Tony Pua. As I have written previously, despite the seats in Kuching having a heavy Chinese characteristic, the banners were written in multiple languages for the first time. Those multilingual messages at times can be dizzying and but is the cost of inclusiveness. And of course, this has been the norms in the Peninsula.

And of course, there are Zairil Khir Johari and Tunku Abdul Aziz Tunku Ibrahim. While their presence and effort are valuable to the DAP, there are just not enough Malays to translate those presence and effort into heavy political influence. Furthermore for Tunku Aziz, I do not think the increasingly competitively vicious political atmosphere will do good for the gentleman that is him. I am taking risk in saying this because I know both of them personally and I do appreciate their opinion of me but both of them are urban Malays whom a majority of Malays are unable to relate immediately.

Ariff Sabri Aziz and Aspan Alias are the different kind of Malays. Both are, or were, UMNO members and relatively influential at that. Their participation in the DAP immediately eats into UMNO’s base by virtue of their value as insiders. Secondly, they do communicate in Malay and that is a big plus point. They are widely read and that makes their entry into DAP all the more important. I do not know much about Aspan Alias but Ariff Sabri Aziz’s former connection to no less than UMNO President Najib Razak says a lot about how big a coup this is.

Yet another point to share. Zairil and Tunku Aziz have been accused as DAP or Chinese stooges, being token Malays and all that. With the presence of more influential Malays who are unlikely satisfied to become merely passive members, together with those already in the party, one has to wonder, is that accusation valid in the first place? One has to ask, why exactly are the Malays joining the DAP?

Categories
Photography

[2481] Happy New Year

This was taken exactly one year ago Down Under. The coast guard was partying on the boat.

Some rights reserved. Creative Commons. By Attribution 3.0

Categories
Economics

[2480] Two graphs for market monetarists in Malaysia

Before this, nominal GDP is hardly a statistics one would look at. Things are starting to change with the rise of market monetarism.

Here is  how the nominal GDP for Malaysia looks like, in comparison to real GDP. As you can see, there is a big gap between potential and actual output in nominal GDP.

A market monetarist will want the loss in potential output in nominal terms be dealt with. If the person had gotten his way, there would not have been a drop in the nominal GDP. Or rather, the nominal trend would have been more constant instead of exhibiting large variation year after year.

The same loss can be seen in terms of growth.

A market monetarist at Bank Negara would have engaged in big expansion of money supply in late 2008 and 2009 to stabilize the nominal GDP. And he would have tightened supply in 2007 and much of 2008.

This raises a question for me. While I do see the virtues of market monetarism, especially when inflation is persistently too low like in the US, would it work in Malaysia?

The reason I am asking is that I am worried about stagflation. We know that the stagflation of the 1970s was terrible but would that be better than what we experienced in 2009?

Categories
Personal

[2479] That feeling again

It is tiring riding a roller coaster ride sometimes, running the full gamut of emotions from cycle to cycle. Already I feel unhappy about general everyday things. I recognize this sensation. The loathing of knowing another day coming; the judgmental attitude towards things that I really should not care about; the coldness towards others; the passive hostility underneath the polite surface; a swear word is just sitting at the tip of the tongue, ready to lash at somebody else who would just tip the scale.

It happened not too long ago when I finally decided I had enough and left the country. I never really explained to friends why I did so. I just told them, I needed a long break. It worked. Most of the days I found myself in Sydney, I would wake up feeling good. It is a wonder who waking up on the right side of the bed affects one’s life. Songs would play in one’s head, smiling to strangers greeting them good morning.

Now that I am back in Malaysia for nearly 10 months, that very feeling that sought escape from has returned. I never thought it would be back so soon.

I do not know what is the source of this anger but I have a feeling it is just the way society works in Malaysia. It could just be me, but if I found myself cheery and happy abroad but not at home, I would think the answer lies outside of me. Something at home makes me bitter.

There are thousands of things that make me angry. I could name them one by one, spending the whole day complaining about Malaysia. The whole thing is disagreeable and it bugs me. But I find it outrageous that any one of them could make me as bitter as I am now. It is killing me slowly.

Maybe, it is the accumulation of all things, but I am having trouble putting my finger on it regardless. Yet, I suspect it has something to do with the country. Maybe Malaysia with all of its idiosyncrasies is just not for me.

I am starting to think returning to Malaysia was a mistake. I should set a deadline and if by that deadline I feel worse or the same, I should leave for good. I know how it felt before and I do not like it. There is no reason I should endure it again. I have come to think that I rather be nobody and happy, than somebody but tortured.

Categories
Society

[2478] The banality of mass opinions

I found myself in a party full of strangers once. I generally dislike this kind of parties (I like small intimate parties) but there I was in a middle of conversation among strangers. I was disinterested. I did not show it but tiring facade that is social etiquette demands participation and I had really nowhere to go without being rude. The settings was not a one-time encounter where I could risk being labeled as an impolite stranger. They know me personally, even if superficially, and I know them personally, even if superficially. One lesson arising from “repeated game” is that reputation matters. I did not want to be known that rude person. And I have been labeled as anti-social, sometimes even arrogant by some, but I guess, not without basis. Some stereotypes like being an alum of certain schools also work against me.

So, I try to be friendlier sometimes, but I distrust strangers, and that is a huge barrier for me.

But I listened to the conversation at hand even as I wished I was somewhere else, even as the topic of the conversation switched from one that bores to one that dulls.

Many have short attention span, forgetting what was said five sentences ago. I marked every single point of switch of topic, trying to entertain myself amid banality of mass opinions regurgitated to me, as if these opinions were the product of individual creative endeavor that worth the seconds and minutes and heavens, the hour it consumed. In truth, those opinions were first maybe written or said very well and good, but later repackaged for popular consumption, for the masses.

The mass opinions focus on the punch line, because it is easy. The logic, the rationale, the origin, the context, all pushed to the backroom, hidden, doors locked. Slowly, voila! The development of clichés. Gradually and suddenly, an argument designed for specific issue became the general punch line for all issues, losing its context.

There I was, listening to clichéd arguments on 1,001 issues by the conversationists, being polite.