Categories
Photography Travels

[2828] What if there were no malls?

Colombo is a hard city to love. Dusty, dirty, chaotic, ill-maintained. I got cheated for USD55 on the first day there and that soured my mood badly. And oh, the honking!

But the city facing the full might of the Indian Ocean is colorful and lively. There is a chaotic order imposed from the ground-up. There are surprises around the corner if you are willing to brave the sun and walk down the roads.

Colombo shows how a city is like without malls. There are malls in the Sri Lankan capital of course but they are nothing like in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Singapore. If you arrived here from a relatively prosperous Asian city, you will be unimpressed with Colombo malls.

Given the relatively lack of large malls, this means shops open at the street level, making the road busy with people on workdays even under the hot tropical sun. Such busy streets full of pedestrians are not unique to Colombo of course — you can see such street scenes in other Asian cities too — but there is something charming about it in this city. The narrow opened-air streets make it all the more liberating.

(By the way, whose idea was it to have that ugly green roof over Kuala Lumpur’s Petaling Street and Masjid India? Mr unelected Mayor, tear down that roof).

Street scene in Pettah, Colombo

And the signs! The signs are everywhere, almost Chinatown-like.

I have always felt street level shops make a city more human. It creates things to see in the open air.

In contrast, dull big structures are all a stranger to a pedestrians and kill off foot traffic. Just move along. Just move along until you get to the entrance and disappear in the monstrous controlled malls. Such malls have its functions but they are just not a place for an adventure.

Categories
Photography Travels

[2827] That kid on the Galle train

I have just returned from my Sri Lanka backpacking trip. I needed that vacation but now that it is done, I am suffering from a mild holiday blues. It is a kind of depression that makes you go back to your photo collection and relive the journey.

I took a train down to Galle from Colombo with a newly made friend. The train was full and we had to sit by the door, close to the stinky toilet, which was really a room with a hole on the floor. Yea, when the train stopped, it did not smell nice at all.

But the train stopped often between the two cities. Though it was nothing out of the usual, curiosity led many to pop their head out the window, including this kid.

A kid on the Colombo-Galle train

Sigh… I need another vacation to recover from the blues.

Categories
Travels

[2826] The bus from Udawalewa to Wellawaya

Oh fuck it. I can do this from my phone.

Imagine a bus. Not the docile Blue Buses in Ann Arbor. Not a Greyhound. Not the bus to Bondi. No sir.

Imagine a bus without air-conditioning zooming across the tropical central Sri Lanka, manufactured probably in the 1980s, somehow surviving almost four decades of abuse by driving maniacs.

Close your eyes. Imagine a bus so packed of people cruising almost impossibly at 70-80-90km/h. Imagine a Lanka-Ashok-Leyland bus. It looks like an old Tata bus that reigned terror in the streets of Kuala Lumpur in the 1980s.

I am standing dangerously by the door. Trees, houses, dogs, lamppost and gods rush by and blur outside.

Inside the hot long metal tube vehicle, I am leaning painfully against the metal side of a seat. My hands are holding on to the above railing, and to my dear life. Immediately in front is an old woman with her oversized bag, conveniently pressed against my groin.

Beside her and next to me are two Sinhalese men. Their sweaty shoulders meet mine.

Behind me is Julien the German and behind him is his girlfriend Annie. We met at a lonely bus stop in Udawalewa, where we waited almost an hour for a bus to Wellawaya, before having to change bus to Ella. Three lonely backpackers just could not ignore each other for long. I for one was relieved somebody else needed to get on the same bus to the same destination. I needed a confidence boost and traveling companions help.

“What’s your name? I’m Hafiz.”

“Ouugen.”

“Youngen?” I mishear.

“No! Youlien,” he almost smiles.

“Julien?”

“No! That’s French! In English it’s Julian. In German, it’s Julien.” He clarifies.

Yea, I am not doing this right.

“And I’m Annie,” she laughs after the whole effort at communicating in English. ” A Sinhalese told me in the local language, Annie means to stab.”

Okay.

That was an hour ago before we boarded the bus, now traveling what seems to be at warp speed.

They say when you travel at such a speed, you would have you body mass stretched. I beg to differ. Those rationalist physicists know nothing. I the empiricist am being crushed in the bus.

If all these scientists want to learn the ultimate secret to space travel, they only need to come to Sri Lanka. After all, Rome was only a child when the Sinhalese built Sigiriya and Anuradhapura. Sri Lankans know something!

Yes, and the warp speed experience would cost you only 100 rupees. That is less than USD1.

Dum-dum-dum-dum-dum.

I am unlucky enough to stand directly underneath a large speaker playing out upbeat Sri Lanka songs. I feel like I am in a night club somewhere. Zouk Singapore perhaps. Or Zouk Lanka-Ashok-Leyland. My head spins. Where is my paracetamol?

I have been on buses with questionable musical taste in Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia and even in Malaysia, but this one proves the King Effect exists. This, Lanka-Ashok-Leyland from Udawalewa to Wellawaya, is way up there. Way, way up.

And I swear Sri Lankans pronounce these places differently.

The tempo is outrageously fast, adding to the sensation that I am traveling on board the USS Enterprise, with Hikaru Sulu speeding at the steering wheel. Slow down Sulu, you are going to break the diesel-powered warp core!

Dum-dum-dum-dum-dum.

I am stating to adjust my thoughts to the beats. I can get use to this.

Yea.

Dum chapati dum chapati dum hilang lee ay. At least I think that is how the song goes.

I can feel the roti I had this morning being churned upside down in my stomach. This is not good.

They say a Ferrari can accelerate from zero to 80km/h in less than five seconds but that is nothing yo. I bet the Italian engineers cannot do what a Lanka-Ashok-Leyland can: an instantaneous stop.

As the damn bus cruises along Sri Lankan narrow road that can barely fit two buses side-by-side, overtaking left, center and right, the driver hits the brakes frantically.

I am compressed from all sides. The seat handle pokes into my side. The woman’s bag gives my balls a good kick. Julien, unable to control for his inertia, slams into my back.

Air runs out of my stomach bypassing my lungs and out of my throat, joining the rubber-filled atmosphere, contributing to carbon concentration in the air, killing the planet possibly by the end of this cursed century.

Cows are crossing the road. Moo-fucking-moo.

Luckily nobody and no cow is hurt, never mind my stomach.

As I gather myself, a mother seated nearby holds on to her crying baby tighter. The infant was only thrown off her lap when the driver braked. To calm the little one down, she pulls up her shirt, exposing her left nipple to feed the baby.

“Don’t look,” I tell myself.

“I’m alright. I’m progressive enough that I don’t mind a woman breastfeeding her baby in public,” I argue with myself.

“Look away you creep,” that little voice in my head persists.

The bus resumes at its previous pace. The music blares ever louder. The crazy driver’s life goes on.

Mine? I think it flew out of the window.

“Are you alright?” Annie asked.

Dum chapati dum chapati dum hilang lee ay.

I need to Shazam that.

Categories
Economics

[2825] How has the GST affected the consumption GDP?

The GDP growth for the second quarter decelerated further to 4.0% YoY from 1Q16’s 4.2% YoY. But the most interesting GDP component ever since the GST was implemented in April 2015 is private consumption.

And there was a huge jump in that part of the equation. The 2Q16 private consumption expanded 6.3% YoY from 5.3% YoY in the previous quarter. It suggests things are normalizing.

Is growth normalizing?

I did a bootstrap model comparing actual growth with what it would have been without GST. It does show some kind of normalization.

The modelling is very naive with just a bit of seasonality sprinkled in it. The blue line is the actual YoY GDP growth while red is the counterfactual if there was no GST imposed:

GST vs non-GST GDP

But it is important to say it is not so straightforward to claim consumption growth is normalizing. The fact is 2Q15-1Q16 growth are incomparable to the 2Q16 rate. The latter period is the first time the GST effect has been controlled on the year-on-year basis since the tax was implemented while the earlier ones are polluted by base effect. Perhaps, it is better to compare 2Q16 rate with those before 2015 to get a feeling how the GST has impacted economic growth as a whole.

But we have only one point so far. Maybe it is wise to be patience and wait for more data point to be available.

Difference-in-difference

Nevertheless, the nature of 2Q16 makes YoY difference-in-difference analysis across time possible for the first time. Diff-in-diff is done to compare how a certain thing (in this case, YoY GDP growth) behave in two different situations with respect to one factor, while controlling for everything else. Controlling for everything else is tough, but in our case, we are interested the impact of the GST on GDP growth only.

More specifically, what we want to know is whether consumption GDP growth is weaker with GST than without, post-2Q15-1Q16 transition period. Or to put it simply, is the GST-drag on consumption GDP growth a one-off thing?

In the spirit of stylized facts, we want to determine whether it is Case 1 (which is bad):

Output loss, rate permanently changed

Or Case 2 (which is okay):

20160813 output loss rate normalized

Case 1 offers a much bigger output loss than Case 2. There is a Case 3 where output loss happened only during a few periods, but I do not think it is realistic since the GST is an ongoing concern.

YoY chart above suggests we are closer to Case 1.

Quarterly growth suggests case 2

But keeping in mind the issues about base effect for YoY method, maybe quarter-on-quarter calculation would be of a better help.

And QoQ suggests Case 2 is in play. There is a persistent negative effect on growth rates. From the Department of Statistics seasonally adjusted data, 2Q consumption grew only 0.7% QoQ. In 2011-2014, growth that quarter averaged close to 2% QoQ but in 2Q16, it was only 0.6%:

GST vs non-GST GDP QOQ

Indeed, QoQ growth rates since 2Q15 has been weak compared to previous years. QoQ in an way does suggest some kind of a growth slowdown.

How much output loss we suffered?

The easier question is whether the GST has adversely affected the GDP levels. It is easier because base effect is pretty much irrelevant to levels. The answer is, it has.

In the first chart, you can see the GST roughly took 1 to 2 percentage points off quarterly consumption GDP growth. That is equivalent to MYR47 billion output loss in real terms (2010 prices) in the 1Q15-2Q16 period. This includes the abnormal spending increase in 1Q15.

MYR47 billion sounds large. So is Najib’s billion ringgit donation. But to put the number is the proper context, the total size of real consumption GDP during that period was MYR843 billion. So, that is about 6% output loss in that period.

But I have not done the same diff-in-diff for other GDP components. I would speculate the overall impact is bigger than MYR47 billion. But it is hard to imagine it in my head since the expected impact is all over the place.

But I am certain the overall economy lost some economic output. That is probably Captain Obvious speaking.

Implications

If Case 1 is true, then the government has less room to mess around with its GST revenue and start encouraging investment to raise the GDP potential so that the loss is recovered as soon as possible.

Categories
Society

[2824] The good, the bad and the ugly of the LRT extension line

Kuala Lumpur opened the extension to its light rail transit lines late last month and I was pretty excited about it. After years of delay, the system is finally here.

I am excited because I can now hop on a train to Subang with ease. Previously, I would either have to drive, get on a cab or take the KTM Commuter trains. The Commuters are not as convenient as the LRT. Frequency is low and it connects places which I have little reasons to go to. In contrast, the LRT extension also means I now have easy access to the Subang airport too.

Another reason for my excitement is that I really love trains. I try to ride on the train everywhere I go to observe the city and the people. Even in Jakarta when the city rail system is not as mature as those in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur or Bangkok. I also regularly read on the read, that is to say I have time for myself in contrast to, for instance, driving.

I rode on the train yesterday and made a loop from the Masjid Jamek Station to the new Putra Heights Station via Kelana Jaya, and back through the Sri Petaling Line. That took me close to 5 hours and I started at about 5PM, running for 40km-50km. The total extension length itself is about 35km.[1][2]

I could not see the outside half of the ride as it was getting dark by the time I reached Putra Heights. I think I will have to make another loop and this time, probably earlier in the day during the weekends to fully appreciate the view.

So, this is a review by a regular LRT user (yes, I am a libertarian who loves public transport. Sue me).

Bad finishing

While the trains themselves are great, so far, I feel the construction of the stations has not been done properly. I got off at several stations and I noticed mediocre finishing. There is a feeling the stations were completed in haste despite long construction delays.

I remember two particular stations with noticeable defects. The escalator at the Lembah Subang Station was creaking, making a loud noise of grinding metals. Mind you, this is a new system and it is already showing sign of stress. With all the escalator incidents elsewhere — some of it deadly — I was not fully sure it was entirely safe.

The escalator at SS15 station was also creaking albeit less loudly. I could feel it straining as I rode down. The descent speed was less than optimum and uneven at times, which possibly has something to do with the straining.

More disappointingly are the washrooms and I am writing specifically about the SS15 station. The faucets open too close to the wall of the basin, making it awkward for me and for anybody with non-midget sized hands to wash up. My fingers would hit the wall easily. I feel the pipes should have extended farther to the center of the sink instead of stopping at the edge, barely.

Several faucets were leaking too, leaving a pool of water on the floor, which turned the whole place disgusting. The dryer also did not work. This might be just a teething problem, but the history of KLIA2 (and the East Coast Highway too?) for instance, it does not inspire confidence. The extension just opened for heaven’s sake. These problems should not exist.

I did not get out of the stations because I did not want to spend too much money. It cost me less than three ringgit to make the ride, because the stations I entered and exited were close by. Neither did I get off at every station. That would the time consuming for a layperson. If I had, I am sure I could find more defects. After all, I randomly got off two stations and the hit rate of finding noticeable defects is 100%. There is a prima facie case to suspect there is a systemic problem with the line.

Who were the contractors of these stations? Given the previous controversies involving contract awards, that question will be important in running a post-mortem on the project. An audit should be carried out and its findings be made public. These contractors should be forced and fined to remedy those defects.

Interchange done right, and wrong

But there is nice stuff to say about the overall system.

The interchange at Putra Heights is done marvelously. If there is an ideal interchange in the whole wide world, this is it. It reminds me of the MRT interchange to Changi Airport in Singapore. You would just have to get out of the train, stay on the same island platform and wait from the next train to arrive on the other side, possibly 10 meters away only. No unnecessary 5 minutes walking is through a mall like in KL Sentral is required.

But I also have to comment about the interchange at Sri Petaling. I do not like it. I had to switch trains and platforms. Sri Petaling has side platforms, which means I had to get on a crossing to get to the other side. More annoyingly, the Putra Heights-Sri Petaling segment is not integrated seamlessly with the Sri Petaling Line, unlike the whole Gombak-Kelana Jaya-Putra Heights segment. I understand why I need to switch trains Putra Heights (Mahathir’s legacy), but less so at Sri Petaling.

Refreshing station designs

I short, I like the design. It feels sleek just like the Kelana Jaya trains.

More importantly, the platforms are huge compared to the old ones. It is just less claustrophobic during rush hour. The situation at stations like KLCC and Masjid Jamek can be extremely unpleasantly and packed with people. Worse, they are underground although air-conditioned stations. But things are not that much better at above ground stations like Setiawangsa, Jelatek, Pasar Seni and even KL Sentral. There just is not much platform space to accommodate massive crowd.

The large platform space at the new stations comes with large envelope cover, which is essential to a rail system in a tropical country like Malaysia. At the old above ground stations, rainstorm would make everything wet and since the flooring are marble-like, dangerously slippery too. The new stations, with the way the platforms are designed and covered, are unlikely to have the same problem, although I would think it would get hot and humid quick. I do not remember whether there was an air-conditioning system moderating the temperature but for the old above ground platforms, a simple cheap fan would work.

But the cover also means the glorious view of KL as seen from Wangsa Maju, Setiawangsa, Jelatek, Keramat, Damai, Pasar Seni, Asia Jaya and Universiti among others is not available at the new stations. That is a downer for me.

But I suppose the envelope cover is a blessing for Puchong stations, which are surrounded with ugly landscape.

Perhaps, if the LRT lines are to be improved further in the future, it should involve the expansion of platform space at popular stations.

Politics of credit and blame

With respect to the old station design, I do not blame the old architects and engineers. The earlier LRT system was put in place at a time when KL population was smaller. Najib Razak when launching the LRT extension line blamed Mahathir Mohamad for not investing more in public transport.[3]

This is off the mark by a mile because Najib ignored the reality of the 1990s when Subang was just expanding and Puchong was a wilderness instead of the industrial town it is now. The Klang Valley population size just did not warrant a further train investment then.

It is arguably only now that we have such population to justify further investment into the city rail system, with suburbs sprawling to the west and the south.

Najib happily takes the credits for the completion of the LRT extension project and further expansion of the KL rail network. But of course, what he did not mention is the fact that the project was supposed to be completed in 2014. Furthermore, Najib takes credits more than the completion of the project. He bashed Mahathir for not providing a comprehensive public transport system but the closer integration of the system really happened during Abdullah Badawi’s time. Indeed, the reorganization of the line management occurred post-1997 crisis under Mahathir. These integrations were the foundation Najib built on.

For a system that takes more than a generation to mature, it is hard to take credit and assign blame cleanly. Politicians should realize that.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — The Kelana Jaya Line Extension will begin from Kelana Jaya station and pass through 13 new stations, including Ara Damansara, Subang Jaya and USJ before ending at Putra Heights Integrated Station, covering a distance of 17.4km. Total length of the Kelana Jaya Line upon completion of the LRT will be 46.4km. [MyRapid. Kelana Jaya Line. Accessed July 12 2016.

[2] — The Ampang Line Extension starts from Sri Petaling Station and passes through Kinrara, Puchong, and ends at Putra Heights. The extension is 17.4km long with 12 new stations. Combined with the existing line, the total length of Ampang Line after the completion of the LRT Line Extension Project will be 45.1km. [MyRapid. Ampang Line. Accessed July 12 2016.

[3] — Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak took a swipe at Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad today, blaming him for the underdeveloped state of the country’s public transportation network. At the launch of the Kelana Jaya and Ampang LRT Line Extension today, Najib said he made improving public transportation a priority when he became prime minister as the issue had become “increasingly serious.”

“This is because my predecessor who ruled for 22 years did not pay much attention to public transportation,” he said at the launch ceremony here.

“Therefore it created a vacuum, it caused underinvestment, it created a poorly integrated system owned by multiple people that cannot accommodate the needs of a modern city, and the traffic congestion has gotten more serious.” [Aizyl Azlee. Malay Mail Online. Najib blames ”˜predecessor’ for current public transport woes. June 30 2016.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — I have also read that there is a problem of access for all the new stations. Pedestrians face barriers to entry either in the form of fence, road or unrealistic walkway. One criticism I have frequently so far is that the stations are designed for cars to drop off passengers. Sigh…

The old stations do not suffer too much of this problem and I think they are quite pedestrian-friendly in terms of access, except, maybe the Abdullah Hukum station. For the longest time and still is, that particular station stops in the middle of nowhere. Hardly anybody uses it. One hopes that would change when the KL Eco City development is completed, linking the station to the Garden and Mid Valley.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — MP Ong Kian Ming has a wider review of the train system in KL.