Categories
Economics

[1914] Of the naive are shocked

A number of individuals are surprised at the slow rate of distribution of the RM7 billion government spending announced in November 2008. Not even a billion of it has been spent. The Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop divulged that information in the Dewan Rakyat earlier this week while answering a question from MP Jeff Ooi.[1]

Am I surprised?

I am shocked. I am shocked not because only a tiny weenie fraction of the stimulus has been spent. I am shocked that there are individuals who are shocked that is so.

Gasp!

How can that be?

But seriously, the lag exhibits is inherently part the nature of government spending. It is its weakness. Those with libertarian sympathies have always known this. Those outside of libertarian circle acknowledged this.

The libertarian argument against government spending can be divided into two categories: philosophy and practicality. Philosophical argument relates to the size of government. Practicality argument relates to the usefulness of such spending due to its temporal issues.

Philosophical argument is debatable but the argument about usefulness is backed with empiric. Usually, it is hard to argue against hard data.

Libertarians have been proven right yet again about the usefulness of government spending. While it is enjoyable being right, the damage has been done, all for flawed thinking aligned with government spending advocates which I now call lemmings. It is becoming increasingly clear to me that a lot of people are advocating government spending simply because other countries are doing it, without proper economic rationale.

Again, being right is enjoyable but the damage is done. The role of government has been enlarged and as history has shown, resizing the government is a Herculean if not an impossible task.

Yet, to a lot of people, they are still oblivious to this fact. A statement from MIER — Malaysian Institute of Economic Research — is most telling.

Mohamed Ariff said that allocations under the second stimulus package must be spent very fast to provide a quick positive impact on the economy.

According to him, there is also a need for transparency in implementing the package in order to gain the confidence of consumers and investors.

“If transparency is not there, credibility will be a question and it will have an impact on consumers and investors’ confidence. Without confidence, nothing will happen,” he said. [MIER unfazed about financing budget deficit. Bernama via The Malaysian Insider. March 3 2009]

As written earlier, there is a trade-off between the two demands transparency and speed. You cannot have your cake and eat it. To demand for both is too Obama-like. Enough of yes-we-can mantra. Put your feet on the ground.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — A while ago, Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop told the Dewan Rakyat that of the RM7 billion pledged for the economic stimulus plan announced in November, only RM567.9 million had been spent thus far — after four months had gone by.

That works out to roughly 9% of the pledged money that had gone into the system for pump-priming. [Long fore-play to a stimulus. Screenshots. March 2 2009.

Categories
History & heritage

[1913] Of undue fixation to 300 AD

An excellent discovery though the emphasis on the date is misguided:

SUNGAI PETANI (March 4, 2009): Malaysian archaeologists have discovered at least 30 ancient mounds, comprising structures like houses, clay brick walls and a metal workshop dating back some 1,700 years, within a 3 sq km area in Merbok, Kedah.

The discoveries, made within the last year, point to new evidence that the Bujang Valley civilisation in peninsular Malaysia existed long before neighbouring empires such as Majapahit (1200 AD) and Sri Vijaya (700 AD).

[…]

Remnants of the ancient society, including temples, tablets and drainage channels, have been found across more than 300 sq km around Gunung Jerai mountain – the highest peak in north Malaysia – since the British colonial period.

However, the latest discoveries shed greater light by scientifically confirming the date of the civilisation, CGAR director Assoc Prof Dr Mokhtar Saidin said today. [Civilisation dating back 300 A.D. found. Himanshu Bhatt. The Sun. March 4 2009]

I am not sure how significant this discovery is, I thought we already knew that the civilization in Kedah was older than Srivijaya. More than anything else, this discovery, while great, only reconfirms, what I think, we already knew.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — I have solicited opinion from a couple of individuals and Noel of SEAArch is the first to reply. He suggests that the more important discovery is the metal workshop rather than the date.

Categories
Economics

[1912] Of increased sales in retailing in Q4 2008 and cognitive dissonance

One of the few industries that are truly reflective of the real economy is the retail industry. The reason is that retailing is the industry which will enjoy or suffer the initial wave of any change in the health of consumers’ real wealth.

Today, the Department of Statistics finally made public the performance of the retail industry as well as the distributive trade sector in the fourth quarter of 2008. Despite skepticism expressed far and wide earlier, the retail industry registered an impressive 16.5% year-on-year growth.[1] Distributive trade sector grew by over 10.0% in the same period.[2]

This is surprising given that for the same quarter, the GDP as officially reported by the Department barely grew at 0.1%.

Gross Domestic Product /
Gross National Income

2007p
Q3 2008p
Q4 2008p

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Current Prices (RM Million)

641,864
198,653
177,342

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Constant 2000 Prices (RM Million)

505,353
136,211
131,261

GDP Growth Rate
Constant 2000 Prices (%)

6.3
4.7
0.1

Gross National Income (GNI):
Current Prices (RM Million)

628,106
192,845
n.a

Per Capita GNI:
Current Prices (RM)

23,115
27,674
n.a

Table reproduced from the Department of Statistics.[3]

This may show how GDP growth as traditionally reported in a single figure is too much of an aggregated figure that masks important trends in the economy.

If accounted for inflation however, the growth in the retail industry as well as in the distributive trade sector might not be all too impressive.

What cannot be ignored is the dramatic dropped between the third and the fourth quarter.

Public domain. Department of Statistics

Only one word can describe the quarter-on-quarter comparison: scary. The number for the first quarter of 2009 ought to be scarier. The same trend is observable for the sales of motor vehicles.[4]

Quarter-on-quarter comparison typically is not a good method to compare figures because it ignores seasonal effect. In this particular case however, the drop is far too big. I admit that I am taking an easy way out by refusing to do proper modeling to account for seasonal effect but by eyeballing it, I doubt removing the seasonal effect would successfully fight the endearing gravity.

Yet, it is hard to imagine how those numbers translate into reality in Kuala Lumpur. Marketplaces and shopping malls are still ridiculously filled with eager consumers, as if those numbers were, well, just meaningless numbers. I for instance regularly visit Midvalley Megamall and my experience there offers me nothing but cognitive dissonance.

A friend shared the same feeling with me last week. He asked how has the deteriorating economic environment affected me. Do I know anybody being adversely affected by it? Do I know anybody who lost his or her job?

I have friends in Singapore and New York who are not so lucky. Then again, those places are Singapore and New York, not Kuala Lumpur. Within Malaysia context, I have yet to feel the slightest brunt of the worsening environment and I do not know anybody personally who has lost his or her job. Answering those questions only strengthen my cognitive dissonance.

My personal outlook is outrageous bright compared to bad news which keeps coming everyday. This especially so when the crisis has serendipitously brought me considerable fortune, thanks to the collapse of the Australian dollar. But I am not prepared to test my luck any farther than I have done at the moment.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — The retail trade sub-sector continued to record a growth of 16.5 per cent to attain RM29.3 billion as compared to RM25.2 billion registered a year ago. The sales value for this sub-sector went down by 6.7 per cent as compared to the previous quarter.

Public domain. Department of Statistics

[Survey of Distributive Trades Fourth Quarter 2008. Department of Statistics Malaysia. March 3 2009]

[2] — The sales value of the Distributive Trades sector in the 4th quarter 2008 posted a growth of RM85.8 billion or 10.3 per cent as compared with a year earlier. Quarter-on-quarter, the sales value of this sector decreased 10.5 per cent as compared to RM95.9 billion in the 3rd quarter 2008.

Public domain. Department of Statistics

[Survey of Distributive Trades Fourth Quarter 2008. Department of Statistics Malaysia. March 3 2009]

[3] — [Gross Domestic Product / Gross National Income. Department of Statistics Malaysia. February 27 2009]

[4] — In this quarter, the sales value in the motor vehicles sub-sector registered a positive growth of 8.2 per cent (RM11.1 billion) as compared to the previous year. Compared to the 3rd quarter 2008, the sales value of this sub-sector registered a decline of 8.0 per cent. [Survey of Distributive Trades Fourth Quarter 2008. Department of Statistics Malaysia. March 3 2009]

Categories
Environment

[1911] Of I don’t like snow

Maryland has already spent more than $40 million responding to bad weather in what’s been a colder-than-usual winter, Gov. Martin O’Malley said Sunday. Any money spent on digging out from the rare March storm will further burden a state that’s facing a $2 billion budget shortfall.

“I don’t like snow,” O’Malley said. [Snowstorm Blankets Alabama and Georgia. Associated Press. New York Times. March 1 2009]

Categories
Sports

[1910] Of Ajax 2 – 1 Fiorentina

Ajax, we, are through to the final 32, being the only Dutch representative in the UEFA Cup after both Twente and NEC lost to Marseille and Hamburg respectively.

The Marseille game was close, being settled through tightly contested penalty shootout after regulation time. NEC meanwhile never stood a chance.

[youtube]9_S8RWUf5Lo[/youtube]

Happy, happy, happy!

And seven minutes highlight!

[youtube]-UWXshLUKO4[/youtube]

How many people did Leonardo negotiate to get that goal?

7!