Categories
Economics WDYT

[2687] Guess the 1Q2013 GDP growth!

So, trade surplus in the first quarter of 2013 very much contracted. Net exports in current prices were down by 44%. Although imports fared considerably better than exports in the quarter (hence the big drop in trade surplus), imports of consumption goods were weak, which may suggest that consumption itself slowed. Another bad news is that industrial production also did not grow. I do not think it was mostly due to the fact that 2012 was a leap year since March y-o-y figures were weak.

I am unsure about the investment figures but those investment figures are already high, thus making faster growth unrealistic.

On the plus side, government expenditure was likely up due to electioneering. But that part of the economy is the smallest among all of the components.

Whatever it is, that quarter growth will be significantly slower than the surprising 6.4% y-o-y achieved in 4Q2012. Consensus has it at 5.4% y-o-y according to Bloomberg. I have a feeling it will be lower.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy grow in 1Q2013?

  • Above 6.0% (6%, 1 Votes)
  • 5.5% - 6.0% (6%, 1 Votes)
  • 5.0% - 5.4% (17%, 3 Votes)
  • 4.5% - 4.9% (33%, 6 Votes)
  • Below 4.5% (39%, 7 Votes)

Total Voters: 18

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The official GDP estimates will be released by the Department of Statistics on Wednesday’s evening.

Categories
Books & printed materials Society

[2686] Stark’s system of government was based on mistrust

Stark’s system of government was based on mistrust. He looked for laziness, insubordination, drunkenness, and strife; he pretended to suppress them, and only succeeded in creating the further vices of cunning, deceit, and ill-will. Too many laws and regulations stifle the sense of good and evil. No one looks beyond his own personal interest; and nothing matters except the evasion of punishment: The plantation was an overgoverned state, as are all the European States of today; and the men were an army of demoralised by discipline. [Henri Fauconnier. The Soul of Malaya. Chapter 1. 1931]

Categories
Economics

[2685] Austrian alert!

Managing imbalances and rising indebtedness under a low interest rate environment

Very low interest rates have now prevailed for a number of years and appear to be likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Given the duration of the easing period, a key question is whether monetary policy can still be considered as being counter-cyclical or has there been a stuctural change in the monetary environment. It also gives rise to the potential unintended consequences of the prolonged low interest rate environment in terms of the mis-pricing of risks, overleveraging and rising household indebtedness, disintermediation of savings away from the banking system, excessive speculation, and the formation of asset price bubbles. Such developments could create financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities that could harm the long term growth potential of the economy.

Papers on this topic could touch on potential policy issues arising from the prolonged period of low interest rates, and explore possible measures to address financial imbalances. Studies on the effectiveness of alternative monetary tools and instruments in managing risks of imbalances are also welcomed. [Bank Negara Malaysia’s Conference on “Monetary Policy in the New Normal”. Bank Negara Malaysia. Accessed May 8 2013]

Categories
Politics & government

[2684] For reconciliation, Najib needs to address UMNO first

It was a Pyrrhic victory for Barisan Nasional and Najib Razak’s post-election speech called for national reconciliation. That is perhaps admittance that his 1Malaysia policy has not been as successful as he had hoped. It is all a nice, humble speech but his call for national reconciliation suffers from credibility crisis.

Soon after, various UMNO leaders made it clear that they did not plan to take up the reconciliation tone. They immediately took up their racialist perspective and blame the Chinese for their loss. The bitter former Chief Minister of Malacca Ali Rustam who lost his election went as far as accusing the Chinese as being ungrateful. Only the heaven knows what Utusan Malaysia will spew out today and the days after.

Najib may be sincere about reconciliation but the party is always bigger than him even as Najib is proving to be more popular than everybody else in his party. The truth is that the majority in his party does not believe in an inclusive Malaysia. If Najib is honest in reconciliation, he has to address his party, not the wider Malaysians, about his reconciliation agenda. He needs to convince his party of reconciliation and not the wider Malaysians. The wider Malaysians hear both Najib and his parties and there are stark diverging themes going on there.

Besides, it was UMNO — the primate party of BN by far — who pushed the Chinese aside. Can you really blame the Chinese for rejecting UMNO and BN?

And the suggestion that BN lost because of a “Chinese tsunami” is not entirely true. BN lost the popular votes for the first time in a long time. That would not have been possible if it were all Chinese votes. There are just not enough Chinese voters to go around making that kind of shift. And the Chinese have been hostile to BN for quite some time now. Does the death of MCA, Gerakan and SUPP not tell you something?

Maybe it was something else. Maybe, it was the urban-rural divide. The urban-rural factor has more explanatory power to describe BN’s loss of popular votes.

Maybe BN believed in its lying media too much that they thought they would have performed better. Maybe, the lesson of 2008 of the importance of credible media has not been learned by BN. They ate their own propaganda and then when it tastes bitter, they begin to blame for someone else.

For reconciliation to happen, BN needs to look at the urban-rural factors. Looking through the racialist view and then talking about reconciliation just will not fly.

Categories
Personal Politics & government

[2683] Heartbreak for my emotional investment

I do not know what to write. Yet I need to write as we come closer to the election date.

I guess I just want to say that I am scared. I am scared of heartbreak.

I volunteered in the 2008 general election and the 2011 Sarawak state election. The two campaigns that I participated in were successful. The joy of winning the election was beyond words. But most importantly, I did not hold high expectation of winning. Things came out as a complete surprise. It was a pleasant surprise.

This time around I have a problem. Although I am less involved as I am not volunteering for anyone and I have not been to too many political events, I somehow have set a certain expectation. Past victories made me addicted to that feeling of joy.

I will not share the expectation but I can tell you that it is susceptible to disappointment.

I did not realize how much emotional investment I have made into the political process over the years until just now. I did not realize how much I am rooting for a certain party to win. I know I have always rooted for them over the past years but the intensity that I feel right now goes beyond my comprehension. It is as if I just realized I have made considerable emotional investment while I was sleeping. Then suddenly, just as I wake up, I find out of that investment with tomorrow will be the judgment day. Tomorrow will decide whether that investment will bear fruits. I wake up shocked, feeling naked with no time to regain my composure.

That is just too much for me.

I now somehow understand how a person can resort to violence. The impossibility of accepting a disappointment so big will force one to reject reality and forcefully change what is true. Slam the sledgehammer hard enough and then maybe reality will change so that it will no longer be a disappointment. It can become what you want and expect. From a loss, to a win, by force.

And if you have been in power so long, being out of power can create a sense of denial that is so strong…

I am not advocating violence. Violence is the worst thing that can probably happen the day after tomorrow. Violence will undo whatever progress we have made, win or lose. Yes, win or lose, there will be progress. We cannot allow violence to undo the progress.

But I think I can understand why someone would or could resort to it. I think so.

As I sit here, I am hoping for the best and try to temper my expectation down. The high expectation is unhealthy for me, especially since, well, what can a person do so late right now? It is unreasonable to punish myself for something I realistically have no control over. Damn those political scientists.

Hopefully tomorrow by the time I wake up and get ready to vote, my expectation will be lower than what I have right now, just to save myself from any heartbreak that I cannot stand.