This is right in the middle of Rangoon. The market is formerly called Scott’s Market but like all good post-colonial governments, they renamed it to get rid of the colonial legacy. Bogyoke Aung San, the person which the market is named after, was responsible for the independence of Burma. He was also the father of Aung San Suu Kyi
I spent about 3 weeks in Burma recently, traveling roughly 2,000 km in Burma by trains, buses, cars, trucks and bikes. I began in Rangoon, went up north to Mandalay, west to Bagan, east to Inle and then back to Rangoon for the new year’s eve celebration. I love Burma. The people there are nice. You can just feel it all around you.
There are so many things to write, but I will just leave this picture here for now. It was somewhere north of Rangoon and far south from Naypyidaw, Burma’s own Putrajaya. It was about 2 or 3 hours into the journey to Mandalay.
Or maybe, I should share this as well: Burma does not appear to be a poor country. Neither does it appear to be a country under economic sanction or under military dictatorship. There is poverty and I saw it in many places, but it does appear Burma is farther along the development curve than, say, Cambodia. I had expected Burma to be as poor as Cambodia but I was wrong. To me, Rangoon specifically, felt modern. There were many new cars on the roads and the streets were paved and smooth. Not as modern as Kuala Lumpur but Rangoon is not a capital of a too poor a country. Upon landing in Rangoon and leaving the airport behind, those facts immediately struck me. My expectation of Rangoon was quite simply off-target.
Maybe what I saw was only the superficial stuff. After all, a foreigner, maybe, would be impressed with Malaysia but if you peeled the onion layers one by one, something would not feel right. The same with Burma I’d suppose. One has to live there, and more importantly, study the Burmese society to know its nuance. And as a foreigner, I may have had certain freedom that the locals may not have.
But maybe, all the modern looks are the liberalization dividend. Several years ago, I was told, things were very different. And there was definitely fewer tourists.
And Aung San Suu Kyi is popular there. No doubt about that. I bought a book from one of the sidewalks in Rangoon and the shopkeeper pointed his finger to a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi on the wall of his makeshift store. He said, “that is our leader.”
The killing of Ahmad Rafli Abdul Malek, the enforcement chief of the Pahang Islamic Religious Department, is a case of yet another shooting-related death for yet another day under the Malaysian sun. The authorities are panicking, despite a certain mainstream English newspaper claiming the police’s war on crime is already a success not too long ago. Minister Jamil Khir Baharom said the government was contemplating arming federal religious officers with guns in response to the murder. The state of Terengganu is already arming its religious enforcers and urging other state authorities to follow suit.
I find this deeply disagreeable.
Guns are a symbol of power. One does not tempt a man or woman with a gun. When a person points a gun at you, there is no room for argument. ”Just do as I say, or I will shoot.”
In a less than friendly environment, the mere presence of a gun is enough to instill fear. It drives almost everybody but the bravest away from public space, effectively killing any open public sphere. For those who enjoy having a vibrant open society, the threat alone is enough reason to oppose the greater proliferation of guns.
Even the authorities whom we trust to be among the most competent to handle firearms has given us reasons to doubt them. Having the Inspector-General claim that the missing guns highlighted by the Auditor-General’s report could have fallen into the sea just does not create confidence. The fact the guns are missing alone is worrying enough in times when it feels more and more crooks have guns these days.
Now, the government wants to give guns to the religious authorities, which are quite incompetent at handling firearms.
The proliferation of guns, at least since the recent past, is a new concern in Malaysia. An old threat to an open society is the troop of moral police all around the country. The situation is not as bad as in Saudi Arabia just yet, but the religious authorities are convinced that it is their job to keep our society morally upright, and uptight according to norms defined by them.
They do this not just by roaming public spaces and imposing their values on others. They also invade private spaces. Respect for privacy is of no concern to them. They spy and snoop around because they think they have the moral right to do so. ”Morality is paramount. I am the guardian of morality. I am an agent of god. Obey me.”
These are the bunch of men who the Minister thinks may benefit from having guns. It is a double whammy for an open society. It is bad for our society.
These moral police are not just concerned with catching youth dating somewhere in the park or Muslims eating in public during Ramadan. While it is comically outrageous to have dudes with self-proclaimed moral superiority needing guns to arrest those whom in their eyes, are offending common sensibility — sorry, or was it the religious authorities’ sensibility? Was it god’s? — there is a more serious fear behind it all.
These religious authorities are also vigilant against religious teachings which do not follow the government’s official religious prescription. The Shias suffer from discrimination and persecution in Malaysia, with these religious authorities being the primary tool of religious oppression.
Several news reports stated that the police are investigating whether the murder is linked to the recent gazette of anti-Shia law in Pahang. Other reports linked the murder case to a cult referred to in the media as Tuhan Haron. If the Shia connection is true, then maybe after so much oppression the religious authorities, some of the oppressed are rising up.
Religious enforcement officers, used to oppressing others, now feel insecure. To provide these enforcers with security to oppress further, they get guns.
I do not think these religious authorities need guns. Instead, I think they need sledgehammers to crack open their narrow provincial xenophobic minds. Maybe, just maybe, if the religious authorities had not been oppressing the religious minority, those groups would not resort to hostile action.
Just leave the gun business to the police.
The GDP in the third quarter grew respectably at 5.0% from the same quarter last year. I think it is the most satisfying growth in a long time. I have not checked for the base effect but consumption grew strongly and net exports did well. It was a plain old growth in the simplest terms, no mathematical quirks. I cannot say much, because I have written most of the stuff I wanted say for work.
But I can share you this chart, which shows what contributed to the GDP growth.
It was a good quarter. Growth with solid foundation, domestically and externally. And it is pretty much close to my internal target (although for the wrong reason: I had expected exports to drive the GDP growth, but it was consumption instead.)
I am unsure why consumption was that strong. I will look into it later. Or wait for somebody to look into it. Hint hint.
I have not been this optimistic in a long time. I was right for being bearish for 1Q2013 and 2Q2013. I have also mentioned that 2Q growth would have been much worse if it was not for government spending. Even for the 4Q2012 when actual growth beat all estimates, I was not too impressed. Only the politicians were crowing about it.
All that was caused by weak trade.
I think I will be right to smile a little this time around.
Export growth recovered in the third quarter after months dragging the economy down. The trend had been so bad that some people worried Malaysia might experience current account deficit for the first time in ages. But the recovery in export growth, I think, has pushed the concern behind, especially with the decision by the US Federal Reserve to prolong its monetary stimulus. Having Janet Yallen as the chairwoman also helps, I suppose.
The bad news is that some revisions might be in order for last year’s GDP growth. I have noticed the authority revised last year’s trade numbers down by about 1o basis points in its recent release. We will see how they revised last year’s growth. The GDP in 3Q2012 grew 5.3% from the same quarter the year before. But that is the past. Nobody really quite cares for the past.
I am unsure how government spending changed during the quarter but I have imputed a very low growth in my projection. It is the post-election quarter anyway. There was less temptation to spend money in a big way. Furthermore, there was this sudden panic about government finance because of what Fitch Ratings did last quarter.
Private consumption might have grown slower as well, by a little tiny weeny bit because of the gasoline and diesel subsidy cut, but I think it was not too bad as to negate good news from the improved trade figures during the quarter. In any case, private consumption growth should be around 7.0% still, and that is healthy by any mean.
Investment in terms of gross fixed capital formation might have improved as well because there was no more election. The greater clarity in terms of political outlook should increase confidence.
Because of this, I am expecting growth for the third quarter to be faster than 5.0% year-on-year. I would like to be crazy and say it would be closer to 6.0% year-on-year, but that would be me being too excited.
The official GDP estimate will be released by the Department of Statistics on Friday, November 15 2013. To journalists, note that it is the Department of Statistics, not the Bank Negara Malaysia.
So…
How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy grow in 3Q2013 from a year ago?
Total Voters: 14
Loading ...