Categories
Economics

[2857] Bruce Gale is wrong on GST, income tax and tax avoidance

Bruce Gale wrote a piece in the Straits Times defending Najib’s economic policy recently.

While I do agree with on points like subsidy removal, I have several issues with the article. The one I take the most exception is his claim that the goods and services tax (GST) was needed because Malaysians were avoiding income tax, and went on to cite a figure, which context he did not quite understand, as a proof.

In his own words, the “GST, this was necessary in order to force the middle class to share the tax burden. Tax avoidance in Malaysia is a serious problem. Only one in 10 people actually pays income tax. This is significantly lower than in many other middle-income countries, and far lower than in the high-income economies Malaysia says it wants to emulate.”[1]

I do not oppose the GST and in fact I think it is a necessary tax reform. Malaysia needed to diversify its sources of government revenue and the recent collapse of energy prices proved that. But Gale is wrong when he linked tax avoidance with the fact that only one in 10 people paid income tax.

He is wrong because a majority of Malaysians do not pay income tax due to a different factor altogether.

First, his statistics are possibly outdated. The one in 10 persons figure was true at some point but by 2015, the figure was closer to two in ten. The head of the Internal Revenue Board was reported in June 2017 stating “18% of the population paid taxes” in 2015.[2]  I tried to find the actual figure from a primary source instead of through newspaper reports. But even the annual report of the Internal Revenue Board does not share the total number of individual income taxpayers. It is a difficult number to pin down.

Second and more importantly, the reason behind the low ratio is not tax avoidance. Rather, it is due to the high income taxability threshold relative to the Malaysian median income. Malaysians do not make enough to qualify into the lowest income tax bracket.

The 2014 Household Income and Basic Amenities Survey published by the Department of Statistics shows the median household income in 2014 was MYR4,585 per month. With an average two breadwinners in a household, that would translate into a median of MYR2,293 per person. That means half of all Malaysian income earners earned less than MYR2,293 per month.

Couple that with the fact Malaysians would only be eligible to pay income tax in that year once they made at least MYR2,500 per month.

We can be more exact than that. Based on the same survey, I estimate about 55% of Malaysian income earners were no eligible to pay income tax in 2014. It is an estimate because the survey expressed its results on household basis and I would have to convert various figures into individual terms. I can show you the estimated individual income distribution by brackets (groups in red were not eligible to pay income tax that year):

The large share of those who did not qualify to pay income tax in 2014 could probably be seen better in the following cumulative function chart:

And this is before the typical tax breaks provided by the government: all Malaysians get an automatic MYR8,000 annual relief, or MYR667 monthly. This alone meant about 60%-65% of total Malaysian income earners did not have to pay income tax in 2014. That tax break has since been raised to MYR9,000. There were other typical breaks — books, medicine and even the Islamic tithe — granted by the Malaysian government that raised the number of those who did not have to pay that year to very possibly close to 80% if not higher.

Tax avoidance is a problem in Malaysia. But it is not the top reason why only one in ten (or the updated 2015 figure, two in ten) pay income tax. Other factors pale in comparison to eligibility concerns.

And even if they did not pay income tax, the same majority already paid sales and services tax prior to the introduction of the GST. To say the majority avoided tax when only a minority did so is not only wrong, it is insulting to every honest working Malaysians.

And do you know who do not pay tax? Those benefiting from donation.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — Bruce Gale. Najibnomics has been good for Malaysia’s economy. The Straits Times. September 1 2017

[2] — Sabin said that based on 2015 figures, 18% of the population paid taxes in Malaysia. He said the threshold of taxability was generally quite high, therefore a significant number of the population falls outside the tax bracket. [Jagdev Singh Sidhu. Higher revenue for IRB. The Star. June 5 2017]

Categories
Politics & government Society

[2856] The police should release arrested Rohingya protesters

The Rohingyas in Kuala Lumpur had a small public protest at Ampang Park today. The Rohingyas were protesting against the latest rounds of atrocity committed against their community in Myamnar.

The Malaysian police broke up the demonstration and arrested quite a number of the participants.[1] The police should release them.

It is disheartening to see the treatment the Rohingya protesters received from the Malaysian police. The police should have been lenient with them, and allowed the demonstrators to disperse peacefully without arrests.

They are treated badly in their own country. Raped and murdered. Home burned. We do not need to be as harsh as we have been on them.

In December, Prime Minister Najib Razak held a political rally supporting the Rohingya minority, together with his Umno and Pas friends. The arrests show the insincerity of this government, using the Rohingyas cynically for election brownie points. The government can prove that is untrue by releasing the protesters without pressing charges.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] KUALA LUMPUR:Hundreds of ethnic Rohingya   to the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday (Aug 30) demanding an end to the bloodshed in Rakhine.

[…]

More than a hundred protesters were arrested by police for assembling illegally and obstructing traffic at midday in downtown KL. Another 20 protesters were arrested for alleged immigration offences. [Rohingyas protest in KL over unrest in Myanmar. Channel NewsAsia. August 30 2017]

Categories
Society

[2855] Improvement TnG must make to create better train commuting experience

The use of Touch ‘n Go (TnG) payment system as the sole cashless payment option for KL trains, specifically those operated by RapidKL, in my opinion has been unnecessary. TnG is inferior to the native cashless system that RapidKL had previously.

Prior to the full migration, the trains accepted multiple payment options, but the superior method to me was the native cashless payment. Topping-up was easy and free. It was hassle-free relative to having to use TnG cards. In case of any problem with the native payment system, the station attendant would be able to help out the users almost immediately. Even the problem would be solved quickly on the spot. In contrast, trouble with TnG cards would require users to put in extra effort to reach out to TnG and their vendors, and their customer service takes time to respond to you.

Unfortunately in July-August 2017, the superior option was phased out in favor of the TnG cashless payment method. The official reason for the migration is most mind-boggling. The whole RapidKL network— the monorail, the LRT, the MRT and the buses — needs to phase out the native cashless system because after billions of public money spent on the MRT, the new MRT line has troubles processing the native cashless system.

But hey, it could process TnG system just okay. Why is that?

Instead of making the MRT line integrated into the existing widely usely system, the whole train network has to be integrated into underused MRT’s line and with weak payment method.

I have yet to come across the explanation the MRT payment method is that bad, and how that was possible. It feels like somebody overlooked the payments side. Just saying the MRT could not accept the native cashless payment and so, the migration had to happen is not enough. There has to be an explanation why the MRT payment method is that bad. It is either somebody overlooked it, or the system has been captured by special interest.

But the train has moved on and missed a station.

So, rather than moving back to the old system and possibly incur additional migration cost (I do not know whether the TnG system is cheaper than the native cashless system for RapidKL to operate; this is something to watch out for), I think the better way now is to improve the current system.

Here is a list of things I would want to see happening soon in order to improve train commuting experience for everybody, except for Najib Razak:

  1. Place TnG reloading machines at all train stations. At the moment, most stations do not have the machines, which offer free top-up services. This forces users to go to other places to reload and incur top-up charges (imagine, being forced to use TnG and then having to pay fees to top-up). In contrast, all stations have many machines that could process the native cashless payments (and even so, places like KLCC had trouble keeping the lines short: imagine the situation with TnG now). Furthermore, all those native machines have now been rendered unnecessarily obsolete by the full TnG migration. How much money has been wasted? Sounds like a job for the Auditor General.
  2. Have more than one machine at all stations. One would have thought for such a high volume traffic network, TnG would place a lot of machines for train users. But no. Even at KL Sentral, the hub of the city’s transportation, I could spot only 2 or 3 TnG reloading machines. The limited availability of the machines, which forces users to top-up at other places like 7-Eleven and incur top-up fee, makes me suspect this is intentional. It feels like a classic rent-seeking exercise, which possibly a case Malaysian Competition Commission should look into (I am toying filing a complaint. I have read the submission guidelines and it is not that hard to digest).
  3. Upgrade the reloading machines to process commands faster. Right now, it takes several minutes to complete a transaction. It is slower compared to RapidKL’s machines, which by the way, are now underutilized and processing cash payments only. One would operate the old native machines for cashless transactions like this: you touch the screen, insert cash and go. It is possible to do this under one minute unlike the so-called Touch ‘n Go machines, which require the patience one would reserve for a dead turtle.
  4. Upgrade the reloading machines to enable it to give refund at point of sale. The slow inadequate TnG machines could only receive cash. There is simply no slot to spit out cash. In case of failed transaction, no refund is possible. For refund, users would have to contact TnG customer service over the phone and such response does not happen immediately. I have been waiting for nearly three hours to get a refund. I complained to the station attendant, who redirected me to TnG’s external vendor. I have also complained to TnG and demanded my refund, which they later redirected me to the same external vendor. The vendor has yet to reply to my request. In contrast, the whole refund process would happen immediately under the old system, because refunding is possible at the point of sale. Transformation indeed.
  5. Until these suggested improvements have been made, TnG must suspend top-up fee charged at other top-up locations. Top-up should be free from the time being.

Suggestion 1-4 are investments TnG should have made when it knows it would be the sole payment option for the high-volume traffic train network. TnG clearly has underinvested in its infrastructure, happy to take in revenue it does not deserve.

Categories
Photography

[2854] Oh hello again Sarawak

Categories
Economics

[2853] Bank Negara versus everybody else’s 40% housing loan approval rate

Bank Negara Malaysia is having none of it. They are tired of people blaming them (too much) for the generally weak residential property market in the country.

In its 1Q17 Quarterly Statistical Bulletin, BNM wrote housing loan approval rate over the past few years had not fallen, citing statistics that 74.2% of all applications were approved in the first quarter, and this number almost matches the 2012-2016 average. This is in contrast to the 40% approval rate often cited in the media, which originates from developers and other players in the private sector. With this as a proof, the central bank calls the 40% rate a myth.[1]

Except, BNM may have been too hasty in passing a conclusion and they may have overlooked an alternative method to calculate the approval rate.

The central bank calculates the ratio by taking the number of housing loan applications approved by all banks in Malaysia to the number of housing loan applications received by the banks during the same period.

But the 40% rate is calculated based on total value of all housing loans approved, to the total value of application in the banking system. Some analysts calculate it differently by lagging the value of approved loans by a month in an attempt to capture the fact that banks take several weeks to process and deliberate on any application. The lagging would change the number, but the overall trend would be pretty much the same.

You can see the rates under the value-approach here:

Housing loan approval rate among Malaysian banks, value-approach. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

The 40%, in fact, comes from a database maintained by BNM. Specifically, you can get the 40% rate by taking the value of residential property found file 1.10 and divide it by the corresponding value found in file 1.12.[2]

So, the 40% it is not a myth. That particular rate has not been picked out of thin air. It is just that BNM may have overlooked the fact that there is a different way to calculate the rate. Instead of volume-approach, there is a value-approach alternative.

Which method is more appropriate, now, that is a different and a much more interesting  discussion altogether.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] The overall housing loan approval rate remains high at 74.2% (average 2012-2016: 74.1%). The approval rate is the ratio of the number of housing loan applications approved by all banks in Malaysia to the number of housing loan applications received by the banks during the same period. In 1Q 2017, banks approved a total of RM22.3 billion of house fi nancing to 90,137 borrowers. Of these, more than half was for buyers of affordable housing units priced below RM500,000. [Lim Le Sze. Debunking the Myth: Property Measures Have Led to Higher Loan Rejection Rates. BNM Quarterly Bulletin. Bank Negara Malaysia. Accessed May 26 2017]

[2] See the BNM Monthly Statistical Bulletin.