Categories
Conflict & disaster Liberty

[2415] A legitimate good riddance to Gaddafi

Months ago, the Libyan rebellion appeared to be flattering. There were advances but despite indirect support from several world powers, forces loyal to dictator Muammar Gaddafi were able to defend their position. At one time, the rebels were pushed back to its home city in the far east. That in fact was the last time I truly gave attention to the Libyan conflict, until today.

I woke up today with CNN, the BBC and Al-Jazeera showing live scenes from Tripoli. The rebels are overrunning Gaddafi forces. News are making round that Gaddafi’s sons have been taken under custody by the rebels. This is a piece of wonderful news in time when the Arab Spring itself is turning out into almost a disappointment, and especially in Syria where a massacre is under way. This near victory by the Libyan rebels against the Libyan tyrant is a big encouragement to the participants of the Arab Spring, perhaps provide little pushes needed to keep the flame alive in the whole region.

I know those on the far left of the political spectrum are framing the struggle in Libya as the US against native government. For all their opposition to US “imperialism”, Gaddafi’s tyranny goes unmentioned.

Perhaps it requires no reminder. It should be obvious, but detractors of the Arab Spring allege that behind all this are the US and other western powers. That is not entirely true. It is not true when what matters is considered.

These powers are giving support to the rebellion, but I must add only indirectly. Regardless of the support in Libya, the rebellion is organic in nature just like in Egypt and Tunisia. It is born out of local discontent.

Remember, these western powers were caught by surprise at the intensity and the breadth of the 2011 Arab uprising. The initial responses by Obama, Sarkozy and Cameron to Tunisia and Egypt were inadequate and they were roundly criticized for failing to act against suppression of peaceful protests, fearing western support will make these organic rebellions less legitimate in the eyes of the world and more importantly, the undecided locals. That was probably due to them smarting from past mistakes. That is not exactly the reaction of a global mastermind favored by conspiracy theorists.

In Libya, suppression of peaceful protests has turned the rebellion into armed one. Somebody had to do something. The killing has to stop.

I have voiced my opposition to foreign military intervention, fearing that would rob the legitimacy of the rebellion. That fear on legitimacy did not bear out, and that eliminates my opposition to intervention. Even so, intervention has been limited to the enforcement of no-fly zone, endorsed by the United Nations for whatever it worth. And clearly, the UN-sanctioned foreign intervention was done out of reluctance: the US military was hesitant in participate in another struggle when its forces are stretched thin.

One disappointment that I have is these powers response to the discontent in Bahrain. The Bahraini government and Saudi Arabia were given a free hand to suppress non-violent protest over there. There is hypocrisy in US policy, sure.

But again, regardless of the hypocrisy, let it be reminded that many of these uprising is organic. It has native origin, not foreign. That is what important.

If the revolution is complete, when it is complete, then the next agenda should be about sustaining a democratic Libya. Not just a democratic Libya, but a Libya that is different from Gaddafi’s tyrannical socialist republic. A Libya that respects and protects its citizens’ individual rights.

Categories
Liberty Society

[2414] The Church of Hypocrisy

It is quite rich for someone to claim being victims of intolerance when the same person has no qualms discriminating against others. This refers to some Malaysian churches’ opposition to gay marriage.

That is hypocritical. Hypocrisy is exactly what some Christian churches in Malaysia are guilty of. Those churches not only oppose the gay marriage between a Malaysian pastor and his partner, they want the Malaysian authority to prevent the couple from holding a reception in Malaysia.[1][2]

Apart from the intolerance, it is alright for the churches to oppose gay marriage and homosexual relationship at large. They are entitled to their own opinion, for better or for worse. It is part of freedom of conscience. But to demand coercive action preventing the gay couple from holding mere reception is beyond the realm of acceptability.

Rights as defined in libertarianism are not these churches’ concern. These churches are not libertarians. Fine.

But moral authority is something that should bother them. To interfere in private relationship as these churches are calling for strips them of their moral authority to moralize about discrimination and justice. What gives these churches the platform to talk about justice and discrimination given their action?

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — PETALING JAYA: Several pastors have condemned their gay counterpart Rev Ou Yang Wen Feng’s upcoming marriage and want the authorities to ensure he does not hold a wedding reception in Malaysia. [No way to gay’s big day, say pastors. The Star. August 18 2011]

[2] — Mingguan Malaysia’s reports quoted various parties including the National Evangelical Christian Fellowship’s executive secretary Alfred Pais saying that homosexual practices were against the teachings of Jesus Christ. [The Star August 15 2011. August 18 2011]

Categories
Economics

[2413] Looking for inverted yield curve

There have been talks of recession hitting the United States again. Extremely shocking manufacturing data from the US today is probably partly fueling the talks.

Although prediction is a risky game, there are various indicators one can use to gauge the likelihood of a recession. One of them is the US treasury yield curve.

An inverted yield curve may signal a recession, or at least some kind of pessimism in the market. The reason is that market participants will expect rates to go down during a recession. Future inflation rate meanwhile is expected to decrease as demand dies down. With those expectations, the bondholders will not require too high a returns.

Now, despite the talks, the current curve is sloping upward.

As you can see, the three yield curves in the last few weeks have been well behaving, unlike the one about 3 years ago just after the peak of the financial crisis. The September 2008 yield was inverted up to 2-year term.

So, there is no recession in the current yield curve. At least, not yet. Quite the contrary (unless we will be seeing stagflation), there is considerable inflationary expectation beyond the 5-year term relative to now; it is a pretty steep curve. That may suggest some kind of recovery.

Nevertheless, looking at the yield curve right now might be flawed, just because the Federal Funds Rate is already close to zero. Given that the US is possibly in a liquidity trap, the yield curve cannot be inverted.

Still, a relatively flat curve could be used as a signal of recession, especially if liquidity premium theory is taken into account. If the curve keeps sinking like it has for the past few weeks (so far, it seems to be due to flight to security phenomenon), we could be seeing a flat yield curve in a couple of months. Then, the case for recession will be stronger.

Of course, the curve should be viewed in context of other data for one to have a more educated guess about the future.

Another story is that the yield curve has been sinking lower and lower. The market is telling S&P something: S&P has got it wrong.

Categories
Pop culture

[2412] You are either lying, or you’re stupid

[youtube]9IYe8JRVzAE[/youtube]

Categories
Economics

[2411] Malaysia’s long-run growth, 1955-2010

There is a famous graph depicting how real growth of the economy of the United States of America has been remarkably constant over time. It is remarkable in a sense that history deviates little from such constant growth rate. I was reminded of this after reading a post by Karl Smith at Modeled Behavior.

I had not seen the Malaysian version before and so, I decided to draw it myself.

It does not exactly replicate what the famed US graph replicates. Rather, this is the natural log of the Malaysian nominal GDP instead.

As you can see, the long-run growth rate is pretty much constant. The straight line that cuts through the series is the approximated long-run nominal growth rate (specifically, from 1955 to 2010. Why did I choose that particular period? The data at the IFS of the IMF goes only as far back as 1955. I could draw the real GDP but since real GDP growth will not deviate much from nominal GDP in terms of natural logarithm, I thought nominal values are good enough).

Smith suggests that government policy does not matter in the long-run. I do not share that view but certainly, the tendency for growth to revert to a certain long-run growth rate is remarkable. Perhaps, what is more interesting are the deviations from the long-run growth.

More relevantly, growth from 2008 to 2010 were lower than the long-run trend. That was caused by the global financial crisis.

It is worth noting that the economy might be still operating below its potential, if the black line is a potential output growth to start with. In other words, there is an output gap. Yes, this is despite the great PEMANDU says and whatever their plans are.

For those who claim the growth post-recession is all thanks to the Najib administration — let us pretend a little that their narrative is the right one right now — this is something they can chew on. Even with the base effect producing what seemed to be spectacular growth, the Malaysian economy is possibly still operating below potential.

With the possibility of a double dip coming, we could see a lot of excuses from Putrajaya soon. Claim the credit but cut the blame.

Another interesting point is that the economic condition in the 1960s might have been Malaysia’s worst within the 55 years period when compared to the long-run trend. It also reaffirms that the 1990s were among the best years.

What is mind boggling is that the Asian Financial Crisis does not register. I tend to believe that the crisis of the late 1990s was more severe than the recession of the late 2000s. I may need to check my premise.