Beijing is notorious for its dismal air quality. I have never been there myself but many news reports have convinced me that Beijing is not really a place I would want to live in. My experience in Kuala Lumpur during the one of those hazy periods was bad enough. I also hate Los Angeles because of its constant smoggy sky and I doubt I would love Beijing for the same reason. The authority there however is trying to do something about it and among it is a requirement for all cars to stay off the streets for a day out of a week.[1] This may work in the short term but in the long run, it could be ineffective.
The policy — in its six-month trial run — calls for car with registration ending with a particular digit to be barred from being driven on the road on a particular day. With this rule, the local authority expects to reduce traffic by 6.5%. The same authority also has an ambition to take half of the cars in Beijing off the road on a very bad day: that is equivalent to 3.4 million cars.[2]
It is not really rocket science to find a way to go around this restriction: buy or use another car with its registration number different from the existing one. Or buy or use other kind of vehicle. Or use public transportation which is probably the ideal path. In any case, one unintended consequence of this policy could be an increase in car ownership per capita while traffic remains to be high, or only see limited reduction, with all else being equal.
The scary part is that in the short run, this policy might work. Individuals probably need some time to acquire new car or vehicles. And it would probably take the most of the public some time to discover a way to beat the system. The bottom line is that adaptation requires time. Slowly however, the policy would be useless as more and more individuals move to capitalize over the weakness of the policy. How long would that be would be anybody’s guess, until the results from the test run are finalized.
Why is this scary?
The trial run will last only six months. The time length is probably insufficient for the authority to obtain the necessary empirical data to prove the ineffectiveness of the policy. The way the test run is being conducted has a temporal bias and may lead those conducting the experiment to a wrong conclusion.
But fret not Beijing for all is not lost in your quest for cleaner and clearer sky! There is a proven superior market-based alternative known as congestion pricing!
Congestion pricing policy suffers no such weakness as no vehicle, save those exempted, will escape the policy, assuming enforcement is carried out. This market-based policy also has the potential of eliminating negative externalities such as traffic congestion and pollution. Another is that the policy, unlike the currently tested in Beijing, fills the city’s coffers. That money could then be used to maintain or even improve the public transportation system!
[1] — Traffic restrictions have been re-introduced in China’s capital Beijing, in an attempt to bring back the clear skies seen during the Olympics.
Each car must spend one day a week off the road, in a scheme based on registration numbers. [Beijing reintroduces car rules. BBC. October 13 2008]
[2] — The new rules are expected to take some 800,000 cars off the road every day, according to the Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications.
“It’s expected to reduce Beijing’s average road traffic flow by 6.5%,” a committee official told the state news agency Xinhua.
During periods of exceptionally heavy pollution, the restrictions will be increased so that half of Beijing’s 3.4 million cars will be taken off the roads, state media reports. [Beijing reintroduces car rules. BBC. October 13 2008]