[1839] Of Taylor advocates better economic policy

Economist John Taylor suggests that a good fiscal stimulus contains three factors:

– Permanent. The most obvious lesson learned from the first stimulus is that temporary is not a principle to follow if you want to get the economy moving again. Rather than one- or two-year packages, we should be looking for permanent fiscal changes that turn the economy around in a lasting way.

– Pervasive. One argument in favor of “targeting” the first stimulus package was that, by focusing on people who might consume more, the impact would be larger. But the stimulus was ineffective with such targeting. Moreover, targeting implied that increased tax rates, as currently scheduled, will not be a drag on the economy as long as increased payments to the targeted groups are larger than the higher taxes paid by others. But increasing tax rates on businesses or on investments in the current weak economy would increase unemployment and further weaken the economy. Better to seek an across-the-board approach where both employers and employees benefit.

– Predictable. While timeliness is an admirable attribute, it is only one property of good fiscal policy. More important is that policy should be clear and understandable — that is, predictable — so that individuals and firms know what to expect. [Why Permanent Tax Cuts Are the Best Stimulus. John B. Taylor. Wall Street Journal. November 25 2008]

This is written to oppose fiscal stimulus based on temporary tax cuts. Recent experience on temporary tax cut provides empirical evidence why temporary tax cuts do not positively significantly affect the economy.

He further wrote:

The theory that a short-run government spending stimulus will jump-start the economy is based on old-fashioned, largely static Keynesian theories. These approaches do not adequately account for the complex dynamics of a modern international economy, or for expectations of the future that are now built into decisions in virtually every market. [Why Permanent Tax Cuts Are the Best Stimulus. John B. Taylor. Wall Street Journal. November 25 2008]