Prior to March 8, it was expected that the opposition would gain at most 90 seats and comparatively, the three parties has successfully garnered 82 parliamentary seats now. This is an amazingly accurate estimation and it clearly indicates that it is not a mere speculation. I am certainly surprised at the accuracy of the estimation — I had indirectly dismissed it — given that DAP, PAS and PKR shocked everybody and even themselves by performing so well.
The estimated seat distribution among the three parties however are less accurate. DAP now controlled 28 seats compared to the expectation of between 30 to 40 seats; PAS gained 23 versus “at least 40” and PKR has 31 seats compared to the synthesized expectation of 10 seats.
Among the three, only PKR did better than expectation. So good in fact that they are now the opposition leader in the Parliament! I take this as an vindication of a theory that only PKR has the ability to seriously challenge BN on its own among the big three opposition parties.
Wow. The Big Three. Evolution from a near-extinction to being the opposition leader in the national assembly is no easy feat.
6 replies on “[1581] Of expected versus actual seats”
[…] Surprised. Shocked. Unexpected. A thesaurus has a spectrum of words to describe the result of the 2008 Malaysian general election. While the result delighted me, I wonder if it would be […]
I usually disagree with sigma, but I think his analysis is spot-on. Unless the DAP and PKR are stupid and resume major infighting (something Anwar’s promised to check), the natural progression would be a merger or closer coalition. PAS’s “welfare state” indicates they acknowledge this is the direction things are headed, and that they would prefer sigma’s option #2, which I think is very reasonable.
I share __earth’s pleasant surprise. I was expecting 50 seats, with 60 to be very good. Independent analysts predicted the opposition would win 28 to 38 seats. I was shocked that we were on track to deny the 2/3rds majority on Saturday, and even more shocked that we won about half a dozen more seats than necessary – Raja Petra was spot on. If the media were open, if our constituencies were not gerrymandered to hell, if postal voting was fair, if indelible ink had been used…we might very well have a new government now.
I am also of course extremely glad that PKR is the largest opposition party in Parliament, and the 2nd largest party overall (UMNO has 77 seats, and I think nobody else in BN can even reach 30 seats). Anwar’s rhetoric as of late has been encouraging, and I think there’s enough strong leadership in PKR to continue the fight even after he’s gone.
Yeap,I’ve always thought PKR was the only party that would seriously be able to challenge BN on its own turf.
Now that PKR has enough ‘clout’, it’s only natural that a closer coalition with DAP, or even a merger, will surface soon. It’s the natural progression for both of them. Both parties claim to be multiracial and multireligious, and both are somewhat left-wing. They’re quite compatible together.
The only problem for the Opposition is actually PAS. PAS’s ideology is the one that’s most different in the group. I’m not sure how this will play out in the long-run.
I can think of 2 scenarios:
1. PAS should be left alone to fend for itself in the event of a PKR-DAP merger.
2. Nassaruddin Mat Isa and co turns PAS into a mainstream semi-secular party with an Islamic tint that secular voters will still accept. Think the Republicans in the US or the Christian Democrats of Germany or even the ruling Islamic party in Turkey. And when this happens, PAS can also be invited to merge with a PKR-DAP entity.
Fantastic! Unbelievable! The online blogging community did great! Sure, power sharing among the 3 opposition parties will be a challenge because of ideological differences so there’s the fault line. But politics essentially is about power, not about sharing. I hope and pray that for once, Barisan Rakyat will NOT forget that it was the rakyat who put them there, and NOT forget why they were voted in!
Sup Jebai, been a long time. Now we should all hope that no opposition party defects to BN.
I like this combo of DAP-PAS-PKR. Nobody can bully each other, because their seat are so close. It will make a 1/3 balance. And they must negotiate before they can pass any bad mandates. Since an abstain vote can easily foil the other plan ;)
Compare to the pass, this like a dream. ;)