Category: Politics & government

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Politics & government Society

[2650] January 12 is just another rally and part of the new normal

A lot have been said about the opposition rally in Stadium Merdeka in Kuala Lumpur on January 12. Pro-Barisan Nasional individuals and groups are either downplaying it or claiming that it is a flop. That harks back to the pre-2008 era of denial that ultimately proved disastrous for Barisan Nasional. They can close their eyes at their own expense. On the other hands, many pro-Pakatan Rakyat are overemphasizing the importance of the rally.

The rally was big and pro-BN groups can say whatever they like. Overwhelming sources of independent origins will lead to the conclusion that the rally was big. The thousands who took similar photos cannot lie at the same time. These are the days of social media but BN-controlled and friendly media are still operating as if the masses do not have access to the internet.

Some spins work because its truth cannot be ascertained. Others do not because it can be decisively disproved. BN operatives tend to find themselves in the latter group.

I find these individuals and groups have zero credibility, much like Utusan Malaysia and TV3, which has been sued too many times and lost too many times. The proceeding of the cases is enough to damn Utusan, never mind the eventual judgment. How does one react to things like ”I don’t have enough time to proofread or fact checking”? I can only conclude that they maintain low standard of journalism or even decency.

On the other end of the spectrum in the camp of Pakatan Rakyat is one of self-aggrandizing. According to them, the rally is historic, a watershed, the opening of a new Malaysia, the retelling of Malaysian history (by virtue of having the rally in Stadium Merdeka where the independence of Malaya was first celebrated) and among many other outrageous claims, the rise of the people.

The rise of the people… maybe these people just watched Les Misérables and got carried away by it. I know, rally such as this can lift up the spirit. I remember during the 2012 Bersih sit-in, I sang “Do You Hear the People Sing?” to myself as I packed up my stuff to go into the city. It was exciting and I am sure the attendees of the January 12 rally felt the same as I did. Yet, the living in the moment and looking stuff from a macro perspective are two different matters.

Beyond songs, the word people is problematic since it is very likely that the electorate is split right in the middle. If the people describes only half of the whole, what does that make of the other half? I have been critical of this kind of rhetoric only in the past, it was BN that liked to use it. They still do it. These days, PR is committing it as well.

The main point of all this is that I think Malaysia has one too many rallies already. This is not saying that we should prevent rally from taking place. No. I personally am suffering from protest-fatigue because large opposition protest is the new normal these days.

The adjective historic should be used when something new and big happened, like when Bersih made its impacts initially. But big rallies are not new. What differ from rally to rally are only insignificant aspects.

And this is the not the first time a peaceful assembly has been held within a stadium. The stadium in Kelana Jaya had one although that was smaller than the one of January 12.

Like I said, the new normal. There is finally a compromise between the two camps, despite the heaty exchange. And that is not new anymore.

As for the retelling of history and the subversion of narrative that UMNO had dominated in the past, again, the January 12 crowd neither started it nor enhanced it. All Anwar Ibrahim did was that he shouted “Merdeka” at Stadium Merdeka. Mere symbolism and too many attach too much meaning into such mere gesture. And Anwar Ibrahim is a man of grand gimmicks. Have we not gone wiser over the years?

It is only everyday politics. The wider repercussion, well, here we are, in a new normal. The new normal maybe historic, but the rally itself is not. It is a speck of a wider trend. To describe the January 12 rally as historic is to debase the very meaning of the word historic. It is an exaggeration.

What was historic was the beginning of the new normal. We are already well into the new normal. The next historic moment may be the next general election, depending on the results.

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Economics Politics & government

[2642] They should have auctioned it

The state — or in common parlance, the government — is the guardian of public resource. These resources are ones that we own collectively, like petroleum, or of interest in the past few weeks in Malaysia, telecommunication spectrum. It is the responsibility of the government to manage and use the resources efficiently. If it cannot, then there is a case to privatize those resources to those who can.

In privatizing these resources, one would expect the government to raise some money it can use to improve the general welfare of the public. One of the best ways to raise money from such privatization is by auctioning the public resource.

Economists typically love auctions because it is efficient. In everyday English, it means an auction can extract the most benefit out of a transaction for the seller. In an auction that focuses purely on maximizing sale prices, the government will benefit enormously from the outcomes of the auctions.

In the Netherlands recently, the government raised nearly EUR4 billion by auctioning the 4G spectrum to the private sector. Initially, the government had expected to raise half a billion euro only. The large difference came as a pleasant surprise to the government. In time when the Dutch government is tightening their belt as a reaction to the economic crisis that Europe as a whole is facing, the EUR4 billion will help in maintaining the quality of public service in the Netherlands.

If one is concerned whether such privatization and auctioning would create a monopoly, there are types of auction that can address exactly that. Restrictions can be imposed so that nobody can buy everything, or buys too much. While total receipts out of those auctions may suffer, the government will still enjoy considerable revenue out of it that can put to good use.

One example will bring us to the United States in 2008 when the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) conducted a controversial spectrum auction. Restrictions were imposed to prevent telecommunication firms from gaining too much market power. Google, worried that these telecommunication firms would restrict access to various content and applications on the internet, even decided to participate in the auction despite not being a telecommunication firm per se. After all had been said and done, the FCC still raised nearly USD20 billion from that particular auction while addressing the issue of market power.

In contrast in Malaysia, 4G spectrum was transferred from the public domain to private firms for free. There was no sale at all, and much less an auction.

For the public, the privatization is an outright welfare loss. An asset that could have been worth billions of ringgit of public money ended up as being nothing.  There is no new revenue for the government and so, the public cannot benefit from the privatization exercise as much as it should. And this comes at a time when the government recognizes that it needs to broaden its taxpayer base, which is narrow at the moment. So, the privatization will not be popular to discerning taxpayers.

Even libertarians, who would typically support privatization exercise, will find this particular Malaysian privatization as very disappointing.

Despite the fact that the privatization came at the expense of potential revenue for the public, some would no doubt defend the flawed privatization. Several defenses have been presented so far.

One argument suggests that with the free award, the recipients would be able to provide cheaper services with the same level of quality than they otherwise could. This is not a given unfortunately and right now, it is a mere speculation.

The reason is that these recipients can effectively form a cartel. This has happened in the past, even with the new Competition Act is in place. In fact, Maxis and Redtone International, two of the 4G spectrum recipients, are already collaborating in rolling out their 4G network. How far this particular collaboration will go is for all of us to see.

Worse, some could even essentially resell the spectrum to other more serious telecommunication companies instead of utilizing the spectrum for themselves. In doing so, they would realize the economic rent that should belong to the public in the first place. If there was an auction or even just a sale instead earlier, there would have been less opportunity for such rent-seeking activities. An auction especially would have squeezed the incentive for rent-seeking out into public pocket and force firms to try to create new wealth rather than engage in unproductive rent-seeking.

Unfortunately, now that everything is done, we are left with the possibility of collusion in the market and a whole lot of room for rent-seeking activities by private firms at the expense of the public. This is not an ideal market scenario.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Sun on December 25 2012.

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Economics Politics & government

[2640] Welcome back, LDP

I do not understand the intricacies of Japanese politics. I simply do not follow it closely. But I do know that Japan can play a significant role in Asia, if it finally decides to take up that role, which it has not under the uncertain leadership of the Democratic Party of Japan.

The DPJ wanted a closer relationship with Asia and less of the US. Contrary to what it hoped to achieve, a DPJ-led Japan has not successfully engage China and Japan now needs to forge a strong relationship with the United States in time when China is rising and growing more assertive against its neighbors. DPJ’s economic management itself has not been stellar but I think there it is unfair to blame to DPJ for that.

Unhappy with China, I welcome the reelection of the more conservative Liberal Democratic Party and a Japan with a backbone. That is so because it is almost certain that the LDP will strengthen its relationship with the US. With a stronger relationship with the US and a strong US presence in East Asia (and Southeast Asia), hopefully China will think twice in asserting its weight around the region. China has been an irresponsible giant so far, escalating crisis when a mature power would have handled it with care instead. For instance, is it really necessary to send a plane over the Senkaku islands?

A more hawkish (not too much I hope) Japan will tell China that it cannot bully its way through the region any longer. Rather than a hawk-dove strategy, now China faces a hawk-hawk scenario, which is more complicated and may force China to rethink its assertive, bullying regional policy into something more cooperative and amiable.

A hawkish Japan does have its own problem but at the moment, I do want a Japan that is willing to stand up in the region. China needs to learn that its bully tactics does have consequences and an LDP Japan can push back and say, no, play nice.

One big issue with LDP is its economic policy of Japan. First is the government interference in monetary policy. The Bank of Japan is losing its independence with the government trying to force the central bank to target for higher inflation rate. While I do think Japan needs a bit of more inflation, I am unsure how the interference will pan out. Lack of independence can be a recipe for too much inflation. There is some nuance in the interference in the sense that LDP government wants a stricter (but higher inflation) rule for the BOJ to follow but it does create a precedent of interference nonetheless.

On the same track, the LDP government will embark on a massive stimulus program to revive the economy. I prefer monetary to fiscal stimulus. The preference presents me with a problem: BOJ itself is too conservative to my liking and that probably makes the executive infringement into monetary policy somewhat palatable. Nevertheless, with expansive and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, I suppose you will get inflation.

Finally, while I welcome the return of the LDP, I do not think the election of DPJ was a mistake. The Japanese system needs a shake-up and the DPJ did just that, even if it did not fulfill its promise. Being in power for too long can be dangerous to a political culture because it implants the party into the state apparatus. For a healthy democracy to prevail, the state has to be ultimately separate from the party. In the case of Japan, there is an additional dimension: the civil service is too influential. From my readings, the DPJ did have some successes in reigning the influence of the Japanese civil service, and that is good.

Categories
Economics Poetry Politics & government

[2628] 5.2% in the third quarter, 5.6% in the second and 5.1% in the first

It’s above consensus,
so says the missus,
so shall we pop the champagne,
and start with the campaign?

Categories
Economics Politics & government Society

[2625] AES, privacy and perverse incentive

The implementation of the Automatic Enforcement System (AES) is proving to be so controversial that even federal backbenchers are joining the federal opposition in criticizing the system.

For the uninitiated, the AES is a privately-financed and operated system of speed traps under the purview of the Road Transport Department (JPJ). It has two functions: catch those who drive above the speed limit and those who beat the red light. The overarching aim is to reduce road accidents.

There are strong opinions on the matter, and at times, it appears that there is no middle ground. As for me, I am of two minds about the matter.

I can be supportive of the AES because, frankly, there are assholes on the roads. They drive as if the roads are racetracks. Many of them disrespect the traffic lights. They, as some would say in Malay, think that their fathers owned the road.

These drivers endanger others’ life and there have been times when they caused me unnecessary distress. Though it is unbecoming of me, there were times when I wished they would meet with an accident. Pain is a great disincentive and these drivers need some serious disincentive. Maybe, like losing a limb. Or two.

But such pain can be barbaric and so, the next best thing is to hit them in their pockets. For those driving Ferraris, a Hummer financed by a tycoon and the likes, the AES is unlikely to be of any deterrent. If you think a maximum of RM300 fine can deter the elites from becoming a road menace, then I do have something to sell to you.

Philosophically, the libertarian in me is always skeptical of cameras in public space, either for crime fighting or as speed traps. It is a concern for privacy and in an environment when I distrust the government with my private data, especially with an illiberal government in power, having these cameras all over the public space allows the government, or even private entities, to track me. Whatever the guarantee of privacy, words are words and it is open to abuse. How do I know, for instance, that the AES cameras will be used purely for traffic purposes?

I just do not.

There is, of course, an argument that in this age of social media, the concern about privacy with respect to cameras in public spaces is really overblown. A large chunk of our lives is already available online. Nevertheless, there are things on social media, and there are things that are not. Cameras in public space have the capability of revealing things that are not on social media, among other things. There is such a thing called privacy, especially to a libertarian like me.

The other part that raises my opposition is economics. Specifically, the incentive structure of AES is flawed. There is a clear case of perverse incentive. It creates a conflict of interest among the companies.

The private companies operate the AES and they generate revenue from paid traffic tickets. There is a clear profit motive here. The profit motive itself is not the problem.

The problem comes when one considers the fact that the process of taking the pictures is managed by the companies.

With that, the AES operators face the incentive to tweak the violation benchmarks regardless of the speed limits sanctioned by the authorities. The operators can increase their revenue by dishonestly lowering the benchmark for fines. In other words, there is an incentive for the companies to cheat commuters. There is a risk that these companies will cheat us.

This basically negates a pro-AES argument out there that sounds like this: if you do not commit an offence, the companies get no money. As I have explained, there is a risk that the companies do make money even when there is no offence committed.

This can be addressed by having an independent, incorruptible body to oversee the system. This can be the government because the government (a clean one at that) can be a counterweight to the profit-motive. The independent overseer needs to ensure there is no cheating done by the operators of the AES.

This is already in place in a way. All cameras will be calibrated every eight months by SIRIM, which one assumes to be an independent party. Still, something can happen between two calibration sessions. After all, the two private companies do operate and maintain the cameras on behalf of JPJ. They have access to the cameras all the times.

The alternative which can make the AES more palatable incentive-wise is to change the incentive structure. In my humble opinion, the companies should not be paid according to the number of fines paid. The payoff should not be pegged to the number of motorists caught. Instead, these companies should be paid a fixed regular fee from the relevant authority. This will make the incentive to cheat go away.

The problem with this is that the government may have to go back on its word and break the contracts signed. But hey, what else is new?

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malaysian Insider on November 8 2012.