Category: Politics & government

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Politics & government

[1136] Of UMNO pawns Gerakan and PPP

I love how Dr Lim Keng Yaik chooses his words. He is simply entertaining, be he is joking or lashing out. So, when he was on TV speaking on the war of words between his party, Gerakan and PPP, I could not help but pay attention. So far it seems, the upper hands belong to Gerakan while PPP, in a way, is sharing Keadilan’s fate in the aftermath of the 2004 Malaysian general election. Casual reading would suggest that this conflict between the two parties began when Gerakan gained control of the top Barisan Nasional — the coalition which both Gerakan and PPP belong to — post in Taiping despite the fact that the President of PPP, M. Kayveas is the member of Parliament for Taiping. If one digs deeper, one might discover that the ultimate winner is neither Gerakan or PPP.

Being minor partners within the most successful Malaysian political coalition controlled by UMNO — the most influential member of Barisan Nasional — both depend on UMNO’s kindness. At the moment, as a result of the last general election, UMNO is strong enough to withstand any pressure. In fact, had UMNO won one more federal seat in the election, it would have controlled more than 50% seat in the Dewan Rakyat. So let me say this: UMNO calls the shot. That is especially true with the mudball fight between Gerakan and PPP.

One article in the New Straits Times implies that this tit-for-tat would have not been possible if UMNO had not taken Bukit Gantang seat from Gerakan. In return for surrendering the seat to UMNO, Gerakan received Taiping. Indeed:

Recently, Gerakan Wanita chief Tan Lian Hoe was appointed the Taiping BN chief — a post that by convention should go to Kayveas in his capacity as Member of Parliament for the area.

Tan’s appointment is said to pave the way for her to shift her base from Bukit Gantang, a parliamentary seat she now represents, to Taiping, the constituency next door.

Bukit Gantang, if the “agreement” made prior to the 2004 polls is to be believed, will be allocated to Umno. This would leave the PPP with no seats. [PPP’s flickering, fading political light, NST, Chow Hum Hor]

So, what will happen to PPP?

By the look of it, it seems that PPP is coming close to extinction, just as Keadilan had not too long ago. While Keadilan is on the rebound, the story of PPP has yet to be written. For UMNO, it escapes the squabble with a better deal, leaving both Gerakan and PPP to fight against each other.

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Economics Politics & government

[1134] Of Malaysian political parties on the economic spectrum

Within Malaysian politics, I do think economic philosophies have taken a back seat to the point that typical left-right classification of political parties is meaningless. Nevertheless, I would like to classify Barisan Nasional, DAP, Keadilan and PAS accordingly. I will leave the others alone since I do not think the rest are worth talking about at this point.

First stop is the Barisan Nasional, the coalition that has ruled this part of the world for more than 50 years; BN itself is older than Malaysia. Labeling BN is no easy task because, in my opinion, the parties of the coalition band together for power more than anything else. Classification is not made any easier when, the most important party, UMNO for instance, has pursued liberal economic policies as much as it has advocated some left leaning ones. More often than not, UMNO economic policies are ethnocentric which perhaps could fit into typical protectionist policies. UMNO and in my opinion, even MCA and MIC for that matter, are too pragmatic to simply fit into a class. Another component party, Gerakan, on the other hand is pretty liberal. Regardless of Gerakan, given how much central planning is observable in this country and the fact that Malaysia is a mixed economy, I would say BN sits somewhere in the center with slight variation from time to time.

If the act of classifying BN is tough, trying to do the same thing with Keadilan is harder. While BN is a coalition of parties with diverging economic ideals where pragmatism has taken over, at least, if one goes through of the component parties, one might be able to recognize each party’s leaning. The same method unfortunately will not work with Keadilan because Keadilan is a party by itself. Instead of a coalition of parties with different backgrounds, Keadilan is a party of individuals with different backgrounds. They have liberals in classical sense, they have communists, socialists, Islamists; you name it, they have got it. I do not know how Keadilan manages to get liberal and socialists along with Islamist under one roof. A greater mystery is how Keadilan manages to keep them from ripping each other apart. Therefore, I am unsure which direction Keadilan would be taking and I bet Keadilan as a party itself is unsure which path it would want to embark on. The best word I could uses to describe Keadilan is populist. Some people that I know in Keadilan themselves are contented to be mere populists.

Contrary to the two, DAP is easy to label. Without doubt, it is a socialist party. Or, if you like it, a social democrat party.

Finally, PAS. I am happy to say it out loud that PAS has no economic policy; they are too busy policing morality that they have no time for the economy. Nevertheless, Islamic economics does support welfare state arrangement to some extent. Yet, I am hesitant to take that into account as far as PAS is concerned because PAS is pretty clueless about the economy.

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Economics Politics & government

[1122] Of lefties’ unconvicing argument against FTA

Opponents to the possible Malaysia-US FTA come from various backgrounds and some they have expressed legitimate concerns against the FTA. When I met Ronnie Liu of DAP several months ago, he expressed transparency as a reason to object the FTA. I could accept transparency as as reason but yet, I am convinced that transparency is not the main reason behind DAP’s objection to FTA. This is because transparency was only mentioned after I demonstrated an inconsistency in DAP’s stance in a wider context.

There are many arguments against the FTA that are simply based on simple misunderstanding of economic concepts. I will not touch on that simply however. What I am interested in discussing is the inconsistent.

DAP opposes the Bumiputra policy, in particular the NEP, because it is discriminatory. I myself am against the Bumiputra policy due to how it prevents the market from working freely. But this is not about me.

Proponents of the policy cite that the Bumiputra and really, the Malays, need time to build up its capacity to compete against other economically superior ethnic groups. Hence, the protection and privileges given to the Malays. It is common for the other side, not necessarily DAP but the lefties in general, to come back and say such protection and privileges do not build up the competency the Bumiputa needs to compete against others; it only encourages complacency among the Bumiputra.

Despite not buying into the argument for Bumiputra policy as well as stating how the policy is not helping, many of the same lefties employ the same argument used by the proponent of Bumiputra policy to support protectionism and oppose the FTA. This group argues that Malaysia needs time to build up its capacity to compete against other economically superior countries. When proponents of the FTA cites that protectionism does not encourage Malaysia to become competitive but instead, sowing complacency, they shrug it off, seemingly implying that such inconsistency as a minor inconvenient.

In the case of Ronnie Liu, he ran away from the subject and cited transparency instead.

Lefties will need to sort that out if they are to convince others to oppose the Malaysia-US FTA. Else, lefties that oppose both the Bumiputra policy and the FTA are giving the supporters of Bumiputra policy a leeway. Perhaps, stripping the lefties that moral authority to talk about one issue or the other.

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Politics & government

[1116] Of dear Malaysians, take me to your leader

Question.

The Prime Minister is in Yemen.

The Deputy Prime Minister is in Saudi Arabia.

So, who exactly is in charge?

The king?

Please do not tell me that it is somebody on the fourth floor.

This case also occurred in 2005.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1115] Of it is best for BN-led government to dissolve the Parliament soon

I thought yesterday was scary when Shanghai’s benchmark fell about 9%. Yet, I thought it was a mere blip, some sort of a random walk that usually occurs for no good reason. The Dow Jones followed suit later but I thought it was a reaction to the Chinese performance. As of noon, today, the KL Composite Index has fallen nearly 6%. As a whole, it is not pretty for the region either. This might be the start of a vicious cycle and I am beginning to change my mind about the random walk.

I would like to see data on consumer spending to find out what is really happening though. If we truly are in trouble, consumer spending should start falling. It is only unfortunate that there is a lag in reporting.

Meanwhile, talks of recession are yet again running amok:

Still, traders’ dwindling confidence was knocked down further by data showing that the economy may be decelerating more than anticipated. A Commerce Department report that orders for durable goods in January dropped by the largest amount in three months exacerbated jitters about the direction of the U.S. economy, just a day after former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the United States may be headed for a recession. [Stocks Have Worst Day Since 9/11 Attacks, AP via Yahoo!, Feb 27 2007]

Alarms have been sounded earlier. That is why I am somewhat skeptical of the feel good atmosphere the Barisan Nasional-led government is trying to paint currently. The economy was relatively good last year — I am willing to accept that much — but between the future and the past, we should concern ourselves with the former, first and foremost.

With a recession expected to hit the US, and — by virtue that the country is Malaysia’s largest trading partner and that Malaysia is hugely dependent on trade — Malaysia, strategically, I feel it is best for the BN-led government to dissolve the Parliament soon. Therefore, I am agreeing with the executive director of MIER, Ariff Abdul Kareem’s opinion.

The later the general election is held, the worse the economy would perform and the worse BN would perform in the election.

Nevertheless, of course, that does not prevent us from savoring the expected Bank Negara’s announcement on last year’s GDP.