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Economics Environment Politics & government Science & technology

[1202] Of the final Summary for Policymakers is out

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change meeting in Bangkok has finally released the final part of the Fourth Assessment Report. Download it here.

I have not had the chance to look at it but essentially, this report is about the mitigation of climate change.

Frankly, I am a little bit disappointed after reading initial reports about the Bangkok meetup and am becoming slightly bitter against the People’s Republic of China. In my worldview, China is fast becoming a villain within the context of climate change politics, joining the Bush and the Howard administrations.

Just as what the European Union expressed earlier, developing countries, be it China, India, Brazil or even Malaysia, can no longer justify their inaction through the inaction of others, namely the United States and Australia. Their inaction makes them free riders.

Further, this is essentially a repeated prisoners’ dilemma model and it is important to punish all uncooperative free riders. In such model, tit-and-tat is the most efficient strategy to encourage cooperation to achieve mutual maximum benefit while respecting private rights.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1198] Of wind of change in Ijok? Stop making hasty conclusion please

In the blogosphere, words have it that there is a wind of change in Ijok — the Chinese are voting against the government. Screenshots is talking a lot about it as well as local media. I have to disagree on their analysis though, unless my calculation is wrong. I did some test statistics and I do not see how one could assert what they assert.

Let us see the pattern at Batang Berjuntai, a Chinese area.

According to Screenshots, the results are:
2004: BN 761; PKR 306
2007: BN 605; PKR 624

We shall do some computation for 2004 first. Assuming there were only two candidates in 2004 as well as ignoring spoilt votes, the standard error for it is roughly 1.01%. For 2007, the standard error is approximately 0.99%.

Therefore, the standard error for voting in Batang Berjuntai based on the two years is about 1.42%. And nope. To find the standard error of the voting pattern, we do not take the average.

Now, in 2004, the difference between the two party is 37.48% out of total votes garnered by both. In 2007, it is 20.57%. That means the difference between the two elections between the two parties is -16.91%.

I suspect the difference is meaningless. So, my null hypothesis is this: the difference is really 0.00%. The alternative hypothesis is that the difference is real, i.e. not zero. Doing a z-test, -16.91% minus 0.00% is -16.91%. Divide that by the standard error of 1.42%. and one will get -0.12 for z. This means my hypothesis is located only 0.12 standard error away from the mean, i.e. strong case for the null hypothesis which translates to no real change. Hence, my skepticism of the allegation of a swing.

In Pekan Ijok however, the alternative hypothesis seems to hold.

The bottom line is that the signal is mixed and inconclusive. The best way to make an authoritative conclusion is to know each and every person’s vote. Or at least, a sample with clear link to ethnicity. Without that comprehensive knowledge, it would be best to stand guard instead of making hasty conclusion. Patting oneself at the back does not achieve anything. Congratulating oneself for “truthiness” is laughable.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — A more sensible explanation by Ong that goes beyond race and religion, in the comment section:

The incessant reference to Chinese voters swinging to opposition is certainly missing the point that the voters in so called chinese areas are really urban voters -eg Ijok toan has only 67% chinese. Similarly the malay and Indian areas are really small holders and estate voters respectively. Seen in this way the hike in agriculture prices are definitely playing a role to win voters to BN/Status Quo. At the same time corruption in government contracts, beraucratism etc are increasingly putting off the urban voters.

People, please go beyond race and religion. It is tiring listening to the same old tune over and over again. Are we so ingrained in communal politics that only race and religion could make sense of everything?

Categories
Humor Politics & government

[1195] Of aiya!!!

Barisan Nasional alleges that Khalid Ibrahim encourages his supporters to vote for Barisan Nasional.

Keadilan denies.

RTM, TV3 and everybody show a clip proving the allegation:

[youtube]AP8IVpKPpV4[/youtube]

Aiya!!!

This coming by-election is memorable, that is for sure.

Categories
Politics & government

[1194] Of losing trust in Anwar Ibrahim

The Bernama report that tries to link Anwar Ibrahim with Paul Wolfowitz — the current President of the World Bank — is a cheap shot and has been criticized by a number of people on the blogosphere.

Nevertheless, Anwar Ibrahim will have to explain his connection to Paul Wolfowitz. This is especially so when the Ethics committee of the World Bank mentions the Anwar’s name several times with respect to Wolfowitz’s friend, Shaha Ali Riza. Please read the ethics report produced by the World Bank for more information.

At the end of the report, there is a letter which Anwar Ibrahim requested the World Bank to transfer Shaha Ali Riza to the Foundation for the Future from her previous position. Anwar Ibrahim is the chairman of the foundation.

According to the New York Times as well as the International Herald Tribune:

Her initial supervisor at the State Department was Elizabeth Cheney, whose father, Vice President Dick Cheney, has been a longtime associate of Wolfowitz. Riza now serves as a consultant to the foundation, known as the Foundation for the Future, while still drawing her World Bank salary, the State Department said.

[…]

Alison Cave, chairwoman of the bank’s staff association, said the amount of the raise and the procedures followed seemed to violate bank rules. Cave also said the records showed that Riza was to return to the bank at the higher salary level and be given a rating of “outstanding” in her performance reviews while with the foundation. [Turmoil Grows For Wolfowitz At World Bank. IHT. April 12 2007]

This link is extremely suspicious. Anwar Ibrahim must clarify his relationship with Paul Wolfowitz and in particular, his role in the matter surrounding Wolfowitz and Shaha Ali Riza.

Categories
Liberty Politics & government Society

[1191] Of Turkish secularism

There are those that point Turkey as an example of secularism. While secular, Turkey is not my ideal secular state. Turkey, as well as France, has taken secularism beyond what is required, turning the state hostile to religion whereas it is sufficient to be neutral instead. Religion is matter of personal choice and individuals must be able profess their conviction as long as such activity does not prevent others from living freely. The state should not have a say in individual’s belief.

One of the most controversial issues that concern secularism in Turkey is the Islamic headscarf. Muslim women are prevented from wearing headscarf at public institutions such as schools and the parliament. Back in May 1999, there was a dispute between a Muslim woman MP that wore a headscarf and many secularists in the Turkish parliament:

The first session of the newly-elected Turkish parliament has broken up in turmoil after a woman MP arrived for the swearing-in ceremony wearing an Islamic-style headscarf.

The newly elected MP Merve Kavakci, of the pro-Islamist Virture Party, refused demands to leave the chamber. Caretaker prime minister Bulent Ecevit accused her of violating the basic principles of the secular Turkish Republic. [Headscarf row in Turkey parliament. BBC. May 3 1999]

I am unsure what exactly is the basic principle of secular Turkish Republic but I am sure that the MP was prevented from exercising her individual right. Her religious freedom was threatened and that, to me, is unacceptable.

Farther into the past, Islam as a religion was suppressed to an extent that it is difficult to believe that Turkey was once the center of the Islamic world. The call to prayer was forced by the state to be sung in Turkish instead of Arabic, as it has been traditionally done all around the world. Worse, religious properties were confiscated by the state; a violation of private property. Restriction placed on Islam in Turkey was almost very authoritarian and I find it repulsive. As time progressed fortunately, the Turkish state has found ways to respect religious freedom better though there are spaces for improvement still.

Perhaps, in Turkey, the meaning of secularism goes far beyond simple separation between religion and the state. As I take it, or rather, the secularism I have in my mind is the one that simply separates public policies and religion, instead of pushing religion rudely into an dark, empty box, infringing religious freedom.

Secularism in no way should infringe any individual liberty. Let me get this straight — individual freewill sit on higher plane to secularism. Secularism is a only tool — useful nonetheless — in promoting liberty.

As one may be overzealous in pursuing religious goals, one may be overzealous in pursuing secular goals; so overzealous that one forgets that secularism is the absence of religion in the workings of the state and the absence of the state in religious matter. Turkish secularism, only fulfills the former rule but fails to satisfy the second requirement. The state has no business in regulating religion, be it in favor or against. It is worth reiterating that secular state is merely neutral of religion.

Repeat what I have written again, Turkish secularism fails to respect liberty. This is a reason why whenever somebody cites Turkey as a secular state, I am rather reluctant to accept such example. A better example would be something like Canada, United Kingdom or the United States when all individuals are free to practice their faith in public, while the state is free from religious influence and religions from the state.

But, when I read the Turkish Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, a candidate for the next President of the Turkish Republic made the following statements…:

Mr Gul insisted that “the president must be loyal to secular principles”, adding: “If I am elected I will act accordingly”.

Both Mr Erdogan and Mr Gul have wives who wear the Islamic headscarf – a highly divisive issue in Turkey.

Mr Gul defended the headscarf choice on Tuesday, saying “these are individual preferences and everybody should respect them”. [Turkey ‘must have secular leader’. BBC. April 24 2007]

…I cannot help but nod in approval.

I seek a secular state that respect individual liberty; a liberal state above anything else. Notwithstanding that, that particular statement by Mr. Gul, Turkish secularism, in its current and past forms, does not my profile and thus, I cannot give it full support. What I can give is mere sympathy for the lesser devil for I do not believe an Islamist state would respect liberty more than the status quo.