Categories
Economics Society

[2505] Limits to wisdom of the crowd

Liberal Malaysians in general are happy to stress on the wisdom of the crowd. In a context where the government holds a condescending attitude towards the public and in times when information spreads faster before the government can act, it is an appealing point to subscribe to.

Travel around and try to talk politics among critical and liberal urbanites especially, and somebody in that circle will remind you that the public is not stupid. Whether it is an honest opinion or words tailored to appeal to the post-2008 crowd, even Prime Minister Najib Razak said the days of government knows best are over. That is an acknowledgement of the idea from the very institution that traditionally sits opposite of the liberal crowd in Malaysia.

In heated political discussions, it is easy to take the black-and-white approach and engage in hyperbole stating that the crowd or the public is always right. Put a liberal and a statist in the same room and the game is on.

The truth is more nuanced. The crowd can be brilliant at times, and utterly stupid at others. The validity of the idea depends on the situation at hand. The examples that strengthen and undermine the idea exist all around us if only we care to see.

The chaos at the KTM Komuter train station at KL Sentral on Thaipusam Day provides contradictory examples all at once.

The trains were late. The platform was full of impatient commuters. When the trains arrived 30 minutes late, those on the platform found the coaches were full. If that did not make things bad enough, everybody wanted to go Batu Caves. With the roads closed, the trains were the most convenient means of transportation for ordinary folks.

The adjective convenient, is of course only used in superlative terms. There is nothing convenient about the service provided by KTM Komuter. For those who depend on the service daily, every day is a battle to be won in the scrappiest of all manner. The least painful way to go through the day is to embark and disembark as quickly as possible. This was what the crowd did exactly on Thaipusam day at KL Sentral.

The crowd did it by ignoring one unrealistic policy introduced by KTM and the government: the ladies’ coach. The ladies’ coach is meant to address complaints about sexual harassment that have happened before. The intention is good. Yet as with any policy, there will always be sacrifices that need to be made and the ladies’ coach policy sacrifices efficiency.

It just takes too much time to choose coaches to start with. For those who travel together, like families, friends or lovers, separation on the train is a hassle. And at least in theory, because the ladies’ coach is meant only for women and children while everybody is free to board the other coaches, the other coaches will be filled up quickly while the ladies’ coach will be relatively empty. Its inaccessibility effectively reduces the capacity of the train. All that means slower embarking, slower disembarking, and longer waiting time on a crowded platform.

With an already lamentable train service and a spike in ridership, something has to give. The crowd throughout the system implicitly and collectively decided to ignore the ladies’ coach policy and treat all coaches as the same. In doing so, they immediately improved the train efficiency by themselves without relying on good-hearted bureaucrats and politicians holding public office, whom by the way do not ride the KTM Komuter train and are essentially divorced from the reality on the platform.

That is one point for spontaneous order arising from the wisdom of the crowd. In the ladies’ coach, nobody minded men boarding it because it solved a big problem painlessly while the KTM policy, if adhered to, only exacerbated the issue at hand. All they wanted to do was to get on the train and get to Batu Caves either as tourists or Hindu devotees.

At the other end of the spectrum is a thoughtless mob of sheep.

The sun was strong but it was on its way down. The visitors were now tired and weary. They began to head to the Batu Caves station so that they could get back to the city. In the station, the crowd packed up a small compound. Even as there was no more space to stand, more came in.

With nowhere to go and too many standing too close together, restlessness set it. Some was pushing and shoving, struggling to get into the train, which was characteristically late. Some were shouting and others were panicking, making the scene surreal. Instead of spontaneously finding the solution, they were clueless until they made a danger out of nothing.

KTM officials and the police were there to monitor and eventually address the situation, albeit poorly. Nevertheless, they did prevent the situation from turning worse.

The fact that it did not turn worse when it easily could have, and the fact that the situation did not need to be like that if there had been proper crowd management, highlight the limit of what a crowd is capable of.

The same contradictory lessons from the very bottom of society can be applied nationally too. The majority knows what corruption is when they see it. Given a chance at the ballot box, they will possibly do the necessary to address it, as they had done in 2008.

On the other extreme, the majority is happy to receive handouts from the government but does not realize that somebody has to pay for those handouts. Either higher debts or higher taxation, it will come sooner or later. The separation between cause and effect in public finance is so great that they cannot see what these handouts mean on a wider scale.

With the folly of economic populism coupled with a magnified replication of what happened at the Batu Caves station, the wisdom of the crowd will be harder to argue for. The wise mob of Greece resorted to sticks, stones and Molotov cocktails wanting more when there is no more, with only the few to reason their way through with less.

This is a piece of advice to those liberals referred to in the beginning. They who overly emphasize the wisdom of the crowd need a more nuanced view of the argument.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malaysian Insider on February 26 2012.

Categories
Books, essays and others History & heritage Science & technology Society

[2495] Thought so highly that they kept 161,600,000 of it!

Fun-quotation-that-has-something-to-do-with-Australia:

…he had confessed to repeated intercourse with sheep on a recent visit to the family farm; perhaps that was how he had contracted the mysterious microbe.

This incident sounds bizarrely one-of-a-kind and of no possible broader significance. In fact, it illustrates an enormous subject of great importance: human diseases of animal origin. Very few of us love sheep in the carnal sense that this patient did. But most of us platonically love our pet animals such as our dogs and cats. As a society, we certainly appear to have an inordinate fondness for sheep and other livestock, to judge from the vast numbers of them that we keep. For example, at the time of a recent census, Australia’s 17,085,400 people thought so highly of sheep that they kept 161,600,000 of them.

Some of us adults, and even more of our children, pick up infectious diseases from our pets. Usually they remain no more than a nuisance, but a few have evolved into something far more serious… [Guns, Gems, and Steel. Chapter 11: Lethal Gift of Livestock. Page 196. Jared Diamond. 1999]

Happy Australia Day!

Categories
Economics Politics & government Society

[2487] Religious conservativism and priorities

Words for Malaysian religious conservatives, maybe especially for Hasan Ali and his sympathizers.

In November, Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, an independent Salafist cleric and presidential candidate, was asked by an interviewer how, as president, he would react to a woman wearing a bikini on the beach? ”She would be arrested,” he said.

The Al Nour Party quickly said he was not speaking for it. Agence France-Presse quoted another spokesman for Al Nour, Muhammad Nour, as also dismissing fears raised in the news media that the Salafists might ban alcohol, a staple of Egypt’s tourist hotels. ”Maybe 20,000 out of 80 million Egyptians drink alcohol,” he said. ”Forty million don’t have sanitary water. Do you think that, in Parliament, I’ll busy myself with people who don’t have water, or people who get drunk?” [Thomas Friedman. Political Islam Without Oil. New York Times. January 10 2012]

Categories
Society

[2483] Hypocritical accusation of cronyism

It is a bit surprising to read about the controversy revolving around both Gardenia and Federal Flour Mills. The accusations have been wild and one reason for the call for the boycott of Gardenia, apart from the racist undertone about Gardenia being Malay-owned and the FFM being Chinese-owned, is cronyism on the part of Gardenia.[1]

Gardenia is ultimately linked to Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary. With the tycoon is getting everything — that is not an overstatement — from the government, it is easy to level the accusation of cronyism against Gardenia. But this accusation is really hypocritical.

Why hypocritical?

Since on the other side of the controversy either created artificially or filled with nuanced, is Federal Flour Mills, it is important to see how it rates against Gardenia. The comparison is not pretty.

FFM is ultimately linked to Robert Kuok, yet another Malaysian tycoon. Did you know how Robert Kuok first made his fortune? It was through sugar monopoly granted by the government through the protectionist import substitution industrialization policy of the early Malaysian years. That monopoly lasted for decades, possibly shielding him from competition from abroad. That is also cronyism, just in case that fact has been overlooked. Kuok is a crony from another age, but he is a crony of the state nonetheless.

Choosing one crony over the other is not a fun game for me. None is an angel but for racists, one is the angel and the other is the demon just because of skin color.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
[1] — Faced with an unrelenting online campaign calling for the boycott of its products, Gardenia Bakeries (KL) Sdn Bhd today took out advertorials in English dailies refuting claims that it is a “crony company”.

The breadmaker also denied charges it had been directed by Padiberas Nasional Bhd (Bernas), which has a 30 per cent stake in Gardenia, to stop buying flour from Federal Flour Mills Bhd (FFM) for allegedly racist reasons. [Gardenia takes out ads to deny crony, racist claims. Yow Hong Chieh. The Malaysian Insider. December 30 2011]

Categories
Society

[2478] The banality of mass opinions

I found myself in a party full of strangers once. I generally dislike this kind of parties (I like small intimate parties) but there I was in a middle of conversation among strangers. I was disinterested. I did not show it but tiring facade that is social etiquette demands participation and I had really nowhere to go without being rude. The settings was not a one-time encounter where I could risk being labeled as an impolite stranger. They know me personally, even if superficially, and I know them personally, even if superficially. One lesson arising from “repeated game” is that reputation matters. I did not want to be known that rude person. And I have been labeled as anti-social, sometimes even arrogant by some, but I guess, not without basis. Some stereotypes like being an alum of certain schools also work against me.

So, I try to be friendlier sometimes, but I distrust strangers, and that is a huge barrier for me.

But I listened to the conversation at hand even as I wished I was somewhere else, even as the topic of the conversation switched from one that bores to one that dulls.

Many have short attention span, forgetting what was said five sentences ago. I marked every single point of switch of topic, trying to entertain myself amid banality of mass opinions regurgitated to me, as if these opinions were the product of individual creative endeavor that worth the seconds and minutes and heavens, the hour it consumed. In truth, those opinions were first maybe written or said very well and good, but later repackaged for popular consumption, for the masses.

The mass opinions focus on the punch line, because it is easy. The logic, the rationale, the origin, the context, all pushed to the backroom, hidden, doors locked. Slowly, voila! The development of clichés. Gradually and suddenly, an argument designed for specific issue became the general punch line for all issues, losing its context.

There I was, listening to clichéd arguments on 1,001 issues by the conversationists, being polite.