Categories
Economics Society

[2669] Why does he not get a job?

I fancy myself as an economist. After more or less of six years of economic traning and several more years working as an economist, I think I can call myself as such without too much pretension. While I do like to claim that I know more economics than a typical layperson, I have to admit that sometimes, I do wonder about basic stuff that economists supposedly know like the back of your hand. When I see an unemployed begging on the streets or scouring the trash for something to sell, I really do wonder, why is he or she not working.

One can be absolutely optimistic and assert that begging or scouring the trash is a kind of employment. It is not a pretty thing to say and much less do but the person is doing something. Employment can be defined as something that one does to earn a living. One can earn a living by doing just so. There are even professional beggars too these days although the profession is not something one would put down in his or her tax return forms.

It all comes down to definitional matters and it is a matter of how tightly one wants to define the term unemployment. Truly, it is hard to imagine why unemployment exists in a very efficient economy. There is no bill on the sidewalk so-to-speak where everybody can be an entrepreneur. Begging and scouring the trash are a type of entrepreneurship if one thinks of it, however ridiculous it sounds. Those who beg on their own (discounting the professional beggars) are doing something for a living and it brings them income.

But let us make an exception. Let us just take begging, scouring the trash and the likes minus the professional kind as not employment but only something one does when one is desperately and involuntarily out of work instead. I am sure, if I was to lose my job and forced to beg on the streets, I would call myself involuntarily unemployed. I would consider it as an insult to be called employed if I was reduced to a beggar.

It is with the exception that I find it odd that somebody can be unemployed especially in an economy that Malaysia has, which enjoys pretty strong long-term growth and (very) low unemployment rate. Are the unemployed who exist really that lucky that they are one of those few involuntarily unemployed in the country?

Perhaps it is unrealistic to expect anybody can be an entrepreneur. Entrepreneurship requires ideas and not everybody can come up with an idea, regardless whether it is brilliant, unoriginal or just plain stupid. So the unimaginative mind discounts the case of no unemployment based on the idea that everybody can be an entrepreneur. Never mind that not everything imaginable in this world is profitable. So instead of continuously making a loss, the state of unemployment can be the right situation to be in as it limits those losses.

That may create an opportunity for unemployment to exist especially within the mainstream economics way of understanding it: that unemployment exists because of insufficient aggregate demand in the economy. That particular understanding of the phenomenon explains the issue of involuntary unemployment. In a recession, the cause of unemployment can be painfully clear. But that is at the macroeconomic level. I am more interested in the microeconomic explanation. Maybe the macro-micro differentiation is unclean here but I hope I get to send across what I mean.

Notwithstanding the point on macro-micro dichotomy, we are far from being in a recession. That makes it hard for me to comprehend why some involuntary unemployment exists, especially those who beg on the streets and is suffering while begging. The Malaysian reality for these unemployed is such a way that begging is not the best option available, or at least if I were put in shoes of the unemployed with all of my savings and the necessary support structure that I currently enjoy were unavailable to me, I would find my hypothetical state of unemployment as insufferable. If having a paying job is always superior to being unemployed, then there are low-skilled jobs everywhere that I look and I would take it.

I see everywhere eateries dotting the streets and these eateries are always busy. Surely, they do need some extra hands. Some small effort of enquiring the operators of those eateries can be a great start to getting out of employment. And when one goes to fast-food restaurants, these restaurants are perpetually hiring. Every time I pass by McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza, whatever, the fact of vacancy is hard to be ignored. I am unsure about other industries but looking at recent manufacturing production, at the very least, it is hard to think that they are retrenching people (although in the fourth quarter of 2013, retrenchment spiked and there are reports that manufacturing plants are closing down and moving away due to minimum wage policy).

There are job search costs obviously in temporal, pecuniary and effort terms. But low-skilled, low-paying jobs do not require too much of that cost and certainly, not insider information that is typically needed for high-skilled, high-paying jobs. Maybe, the desperate cannot travel to search for job and that creates unemployment in the specific kind that I am referring to. Indeed, one needs to travel wide in Kuala Lumpur to see these vacancies and witnesses also some beggars on the streets. Still, I have seen a business advertising vacancy and there was a homeless man across the street. The cost of crossing the street cannot be so great that that street cannot be crossed. If it was in the affirmative, it would be the height of ridiculousness.

The state of homelessness may complicate the scenario because many employers need to an applicant’s contact details if the employers need to get back to the applicants. A begging homeless person has not contact details in the traditional sense. That may be the barrier to employment and it may be the inflexibility of businesses that cause unemployment in this sense. I think I can support some state action to help any homeless persons to get a job. Effort is important and if a homeless person is applying to a job, then someone and unfortunately the state, should find a way to help the homeless apply for the job while employers should be more flexible in their requirement so that the unemployed homeless do not find themselves in a conundrum: I can only get a job if I have contact details but I can afford contact details only if I have a job. Somebody needs to be break the cycle.

Being an illegal alien may also contribute to employment because the law does discriminate against illegal immigrants.

But really, even counting homelessness into account, there are many business establishment, those eateries by the streets in KL, even those restaurants by the streets under the trees, are not really much into bureaucracy. I even doubt those establishments even fully disclose their tax information. So contact information and illegal status are hardly a consideration for very small businesses.

But beyond homelessness (I have a feeling that homelessness is a small factor in the state of unemployment) and illegal aliens, within the context of Kuala Lumpur, that of a relatively strong economy and low unemployment rate, I struggle to understand why a person can be unemployed when clearly, being unemployed is undesirable to a person. Unless the person fakes his condition, some beggars that I spotted looked miserable it appeared to me that the beggars needed jobs.

I have been thinking about this for a long time now, ever since that man came up to me at a gas station and asked me for money. I refused him and I felt bad as I thought myself, maybe it was in a tough spot. I began to felt less bad when I saw him again some weeks later, and again after that multiple of times.

Why does he not just get a job?

He has no disability, physically and mentally. Clearly he is capable of work.

Is there some kind of psychological explanation?

Categories
Politics & government Pop culture Society

[2666] From race and religion to Psy

For better or worse, quantity is important in a democratic contest. It is about gaining the majority. It is about popularity.

With that as the context, we have to remember we live in a young society. The Department of Statistics estimates that the median Malaysia age in 2010 was slightly above 26 years. In simpler terms, the age of one half of the population today is younger than the median just three years ago. The profile of the Malaysian electorate pretty much reflects the demographics of our society.

Thanks to their sheer size, those in their 20s and 30s are clearly the biggest and thus the most important group. If they had one mind, they collectively could decisively determine the path which the country would take.

But what makes these young people stand out further politically is that most of them will be voting in a national election for the first time in their lives. Their minds more flexible than those belonging to the older generation who more often than not are hung up on legacy issues. Ibrahim Ali, for instance, still has the May 13 incident as his talking point.

So, young adults are the cool kids on the block and the two nationally-relevant political factions are competing to be the friend of these cool kids. The Barisan Nasional-led federal government has launched several policies for that purpose and chief among them are affordable housing and other cash transfers. The federal opposition Pakatan Rakyat promises the same young adults free tertiary education, among others. Both sides are pulling out all stops to be the one special friend.

While I find many of those policies too populist, at least those policies are serious in the sense that they affect a person’s welfare. The existence of a real policy competition between two credible sides is heartening since previously, it was really all about the old, stale, suffocating issues of race and religion. That is not to say that race and religion are no longer factors but at the very least, we have something substantive to base our election on.

But I do have a feeling that the courting is starting to go a bit too far and starting to appear regressive. It is starting to go into the realm of the trivial that debases the very serious nature of our elections. In an effort to become ever more popular, political parties are starting to make entertainment the focal point of their political events, instead of what the parties stand for.

This happened in Penang recently. Barisan Nasional organized its Chinese New Year celebration with Psy, the Korean sensation — and not the Malaysian prime minister — as the star of the event. The hosts of That Effing Show — a sarcastic online talk show focusing on Malaysian affairs — were right on the money when they joked that in the United States, a singer would introduce the president to the crowd but in Malaysia, the prime minister introduced a singer. Such is the office of the prime minister which is obviously too engrossed in crass populism.

While I despise the debasement of the highest political office of the land, I think I understand the reasoning behind it. Young adults are seen wedded together with pop culture. They are the pop culture.

Maybe, just maybe, the politicians think, if they could harness the power of pop culture, if they could show that they have their finger on pop culture, then they could connect with these young adults. We could win their votes, so the politicians thought. At the end, these politicians hoped what happened in Penang stayed in Penang (Tourism Minister Ng Yen Yen had a different idea in Malacca, some weeks after).

But this line of thinking — of entertainment, young adults and politics — is potentially insulting to young adults. Is entertainment the thing that matters the most in attracting them to participate in a political process? Are young adults fluffy-headed, uncritical, naïve voters to be wooed with inconsequential gimmicks? Is the future worth a trivial song in an age where one-hit wonders happen almost every week, if not every day? I pray to the god in the mirror for the answer to be no.

I know it did not work in Penang but I do not know if it will never work. I hope that it will never work so that our elections have less possibility of becoming an exercise of triviality. The truth is Barisan Nasional is not the only one guilty of putting entertainment at the center stage or a big part of a political event or rally.

The danger is that if it works and pulls in the votes. When that happens, there goes the future as votes of substantial value are traded for a trivial piece of song popular with the cool kids.

If it does happen, that will be no progress from the days of race and religion. It is just as bad as the days of old.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malaysian Insider on February 28 2013.

Categories
Society

[2659] Valentine’s secularization

As far as I understand it from my experience living in the United States during my undergraduate years, the Christian right, which is a loose socially conservative religious group, believes that there is a social war going on. It is a war on Christmas.

The war is really about the secularization of Christmas. It is a symbol of a wider conflict between the social conservatives and the liberals.

Putting that aside, an example of the secularization involves greetings associated with Christmas. In place of the phrase ”Merry Christmas”, many liberals are resorting to wishing ”Happy Holidays” instead.

The very phrase ”Happy Holidays” is partly an effort to be inclusive by those who embrace liberal, cosmopolitan values that are inclusive. That is so because Christmas is not only a celebration that takes place in December. There is the Jewish celebration of Hanukkah. There is Thanksgiving at the end of November. Soon after Dec 25, there is the New Year’s Eve. And given the nature of the Muslim calendar, it is very possible that Ramadan can fall around the same time as Christmas.

The point is that non-Christian holidays do and can happen around the same time as Christmas. So, the greeting ”Happy Holidays” sounds inclusive, especially when one wants to be polite but does not know the other person well. This is particularly a relevant point to mass communication when tailored messages can be a little hard to deliver with precision.

The more important point is that the end-of-the-year holidays — at the risk of committing tautology — are the end-of-the-year holidays. Schools end, professionals take their leave and families or friends go to somewhere together if they do not spend it at home. Even non-believers do this.

So, the time that is traditionally celebrated as Christmas holidays becomes the common great holidays for all. For many Christians in America, Christmas is about Christianity. For many non-Christians, Christmas is a secular holiday devoid of any religious connotation. So secular that if the political left had their way, they would have labeled Christmas as a capitalist holiday for all of the shopping sprees that happen all around the world.

Apparently, the secularization of Christmas does not only happen in America. Some years ago, several of my French friends wished ”Merry Christmas” to me. I told one of the friends that I am not a Christian. She replied, ”Neither am I. I am an atheist.”

”Oh. Then Merry Christmas to you too,” I said while smiling at her.

There we were, two non-Christians wishing each other ”Merry Christmas”.

We were just being nice to each other and we had no Christian image of Nativity in our heads.

This is only a data point but it is a proof of secularization of Christmas nevertheless.

Some secularization also happens in Malaysia.

There are nominal Muslims who celebrate the end of Ramadan not because they consider it as a particularly religious day. In fact, a lot of them do not observe strict fasting during the month of Ramadan. Still they celebrate Hari Raya because it is a tradition to do so and because everybody is in their gayest of all moods, dressed in their best bright-colored baju Melayu and baju kurung. It is effectively a nationwide party. It is hard not to get afflicted by the ambience comes to being only in the month of Syawal. Never mind that there are also non-Muslims who celebrate Hari Raya by visiting friends in the days after Syawal 1.

That is the seed of secularisation that to some extent divorces the holiday from its religious significance.

The full separation between those holidays and its religious significance however is unlikely to happen anytime soon as long as religion continues to play an important role in any society.

In Malaysia, religion will continue to be relevant for a long time.

While that is so, there are celebrations that have been fully divorced from their original religious connotation.  One of such celebrations is just around the corner and it is St Valentine’s Day. Despite the name, Valentine’s in its popular conception in Malaysia and in many other places has nothing to do with religion.

The simplest way to ascertain that is to run a survey. Ask any couple out on Valentine’s and see if they have religion in mind. More likely than not. They are likely to have each other in their mind instead. The truth is that Valentine’s of modern times is a very secular romantic celebration of each other.

And secularization has allowed the idea of Valentine’s to come closest it has ever been to becoming universal.

Yet, many conservative Muslims in Malaysia in one way or another believe that Valentine’s is about Christianity. Like the Christian right which suffers from make-believe assault and siege mentality, the Malaysian Muslim conservatives suffer from the same delusion. In their mind, this is yet another conspiracy against them.

But it is not.

It is an evolution within society. Society takes what it thinks good from within it. Through secularization, society makes whatever that was confined within a restrictive four-wall more universal so that all can benefit from it.

So, to take Valentine’s as celebrated today within a religious context and then to oppose it is truly to miss the point of it all.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in the Selangor Times on February 8 2013.

Categories
Economics Society

[2654] 2011 migration report by the Statistics Department

The Department of Statistics has been productive in the past few weeks. Apart from regular monthly statistical releases, the Department has been producing sectoral and yearly reports in relatively large number. One of the latest involves migration report.[1]

There is one surprise from the report that I would want to share. At least, it is surprising to me.

One would expect, economically advanced or rapidly developing states should record net migration. These states should be able to provide opportunities compared to others. The infrastructure and services available should also be better than the rest. I would imagine only states like Selangor or Penang and other states with many large urban areas would record net migration. Just to be clear, I write net migration to mean immigration less emigration.

So, according to the migration report by the Department of Statistics, the states with net migration in 2011, in order from the greatest to the least, were Selangor (17,000 persons), Penang (8,800), Sarawak (5,500) and Kelantan (3,200).

20130130DoSNetMigration

Selangor and Penang are sort of expected. They form the industrial base for the country and there are a lot of jobs available in those states. As for Sarawak, maybe it has to do with Indonesians.

I do not have access to the full report. So, I lack information to comment too much. All I have is a 12-page (more like 6-page because it is a bilingual report) summary. I also am only able to assess 2010 and 2011 data. So, I am unable to see the wider context that a longer time-series data would provide.

Nevertheless, based on the limited information I have, what I find surprising is Kelantan. Here is a state that I find it hard to rationalize why of all states had net migration. One does not think of Kelantan when one thinks of employment opportunities. I suspect the conflict in southern Thailand may have something to do with it.

On the other end of the spectrum, Kuala Lumpur suffered the net emigration but I do not think it is too surprising. Most of the emigrants moved to Selangor. With limited spaces and high cost of living, it is a trend these days to live in new suburban areas close by outside of the capital. And Kuala Lumpur is an enclave of Selangor. So, it is quite possible that the net emigration mostly refers to individuals who moved out of the Kuala Lumpur but still work in or around Kuala Lumpur. So, there is nothing ominous about that.

But what is curious about Selangor is that the wild net migration swing from 2010 and 2011. I cannot explain it too much except that 2011 may see former 2010 emigrants returning to the state. These former emigrants probably did not go to Kuala Lumpur.

For Johor however, it is a different story. The state had the second highest net emigration. With all the developments in Johor, one would expect net migration instead. Nearly 50% of the emigrants from Johor went to Selangor and Malacca combined.

Finally, since on the political front we are busy with the granting of citizenship to aliens in Sabah, here is one last remark. In Sabah, nearly 3.5% of the population are immigrants (I know, someone reading this will exhibit incredulity).

20130130DoSPercMigrantStates

And, aliens in Putrajaya! (But more seriously, migrants refer to those who do not come from the place they live in. Illegal immigrants are probably not counted. Anyway, I am unclear what definition of migrant that the Department uses. Need to do research on that. But the qualification is probably some years or below in a state. I would imagine single digit years.)

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — [Migration Survey Report 2011. Department of Statistics. January 29 2013]

Categories
Politics & government Society

[2650] January 12 is just another rally and part of the new normal

A lot have been said about the opposition rally in Stadium Merdeka in Kuala Lumpur on January 12. Pro-Barisan Nasional individuals and groups are either downplaying it or claiming that it is a flop. That harks back to the pre-2008 era of denial that ultimately proved disastrous for Barisan Nasional. They can close their eyes at their own expense. On the other hands, many pro-Pakatan Rakyat are overemphasizing the importance of the rally.

The rally was big and pro-BN groups can say whatever they like. Overwhelming sources of independent origins will lead to the conclusion that the rally was big. The thousands who took similar photos cannot lie at the same time. These are the days of social media but BN-controlled and friendly media are still operating as if the masses do not have access to the internet.

Some spins work because its truth cannot be ascertained. Others do not because it can be decisively disproved. BN operatives tend to find themselves in the latter group.

I find these individuals and groups have zero credibility, much like Utusan Malaysia and TV3, which has been sued too many times and lost too many times. The proceeding of the cases is enough to damn Utusan, never mind the eventual judgment. How does one react to things like ”I don’t have enough time to proofread or fact checking”? I can only conclude that they maintain low standard of journalism or even decency.

On the other end of the spectrum in the camp of Pakatan Rakyat is one of self-aggrandizing. According to them, the rally is historic, a watershed, the opening of a new Malaysia, the retelling of Malaysian history (by virtue of having the rally in Stadium Merdeka where the independence of Malaya was first celebrated) and among many other outrageous claims, the rise of the people.

The rise of the people… maybe these people just watched Les Misérables and got carried away by it. I know, rally such as this can lift up the spirit. I remember during the 2012 Bersih sit-in, I sang “Do You Hear the People Sing?” to myself as I packed up my stuff to go into the city. It was exciting and I am sure the attendees of the January 12 rally felt the same as I did. Yet, the living in the moment and looking stuff from a macro perspective are two different matters.

Beyond songs, the word people is problematic since it is very likely that the electorate is split right in the middle. If the people describes only half of the whole, what does that make of the other half? I have been critical of this kind of rhetoric only in the past, it was BN that liked to use it. They still do it. These days, PR is committing it as well.

The main point of all this is that I think Malaysia has one too many rallies already. This is not saying that we should prevent rally from taking place. No. I personally am suffering from protest-fatigue because large opposition protest is the new normal these days.

The adjective historic should be used when something new and big happened, like when Bersih made its impacts initially. But big rallies are not new. What differ from rally to rally are only insignificant aspects.

And this is the not the first time a peaceful assembly has been held within a stadium. The stadium in Kelana Jaya had one although that was smaller than the one of January 12.

Like I said, the new normal. There is finally a compromise between the two camps, despite the heaty exchange. And that is not new anymore.

As for the retelling of history and the subversion of narrative that UMNO had dominated in the past, again, the January 12 crowd neither started it nor enhanced it. All Anwar Ibrahim did was that he shouted “Merdeka” at Stadium Merdeka. Mere symbolism and too many attach too much meaning into such mere gesture. And Anwar Ibrahim is a man of grand gimmicks. Have we not gone wiser over the years?

It is only everyday politics. The wider repercussion, well, here we are, in a new normal. The new normal maybe historic, but the rally itself is not. It is a speck of a wider trend. To describe the January 12 rally as historic is to debase the very meaning of the word historic. It is an exaggeration.

What was historic was the beginning of the new normal. We are already well into the new normal. The next historic moment may be the next general election, depending on the results.