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Economics

[2045] Of unemployment targeting? That is new…

Today in The Sydney Morning Herald:

THE dollar soared and financial markets began pricing in interest rate rises after the Reserve Bank governor declared that he will soon have to push up rates and that he might do so without waiting for unemployment to stop climbing.

The bank is thought to have never before lifted interest rates while unemployment was rising.

But yesterday the governor, Glenn Stevens, told a business audience in Sydney that he did not regard himself bound by such a convention.

”˜”˜I’ve never seen written down, or I have never heard in discussion in the institution, some rule of thumb that says we wait until unemployment has peaked before we lift the cash rate,’’ he said. ”˜”˜It depends what else is happening, and also depends how low we went. [Rate rise looming, warns top banker. Peter Martin. The Sydney Morning Herald. July 29 2009]

I am not quite sure if the reporter is right when he writes “[t]he bank is thought to have never before lifted interest rates while unemployment was rising”.

Maybe, I am just not familiar with Australian thinking but central banks — that is, independent central banks — typically target inflation and not unemployment rate.

Central banks may incorporate other factors like economic growth, for instance, but the primary factor, as I understand it through my pre-2008 crisis economics lesson, is always inflation.

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Economics

[2041] Of …actually, it might last longer than initially thought

Remember the immediate previous post about deflation in Malaysia and how it was expected to succumb to inflation later in the year?

Yesterday, being a centrally-planned economy that Malaysia is, the Cabinet decided against a hike.

KUALA LUMPUR, July 22 — Malaysia’s government today vetoed price hikes for electricity and natural gas, fearing a repeat of anti-government protests that saw its popularity slump in 2008.

Under proposals discussed by the cabinet today, the country’s influential Economic Planning Unit had suggested a 24.6 per cent rise in the price of natural gas and a 4.9 per cent hike in electricity prices from Aug. 1 to reflect the rising cost of energy. [Malaysia government rejects energy price hikes. Bernama via The Malaysian Insider. July 22 2009]

I am not sure if inflation will come back as soon as analysts predicted earlier. I know, I know, they based the return on the expected hike of taxi and bus fare hike. But I think this decision can potentially affect inflation expectation in a way that prolongs the deflation.

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Economics

[2040] Of a temporary respite to an outdated model

Ah, do we not all wish to return to a time when economics was much simpler, when it was thought that there was a simple trade-off between inflation rate and unemployment rates, when the original Phillips curve worked well, when stagflation had yet to be coined and experienced, when non-accelarating inflation rate of unemployment was unheard of and the days when Keynesian economics reigned before it was blown into pieces by the 1970s crisis?

Well, it is back!

Finally, a return to the good old undergraduate textbook economics problem!

KUALA LUMPUR, July 21 — Malaysia’s consumer price index (CPI) is likely to have fallen in June from a year earlier by 1.35 per cent, the first annual decline in two decades… [Malaysia CPI set for first fall since 1986. Bernama via The Malaysian Insider. July 21 2009]

The original Phillips curve states that there is a inverse relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate. The unemployment was at 4.0% in the first quarter of the year, much higher than the previous quarter (3.1%).[1] Given that the unemployment rate for 2008 was 3.3%, it is not hard to show that 4.0% is a stark increase even on year-on-year basis. And so, when deflation occurs, along with heightened unemployment rate, the environment fits into the original Phillips curve.

Anyway, enjoy it while it lasts because…

…although a period of deflation is expected to be short lived. [Malaysia CPI set for first fall since 1986. Bernama via The Malaysian Insider. July 21 2009]

Yup. The celebration for the original Phillips curve will not last long. Thank heavens for Edmund Phelps and Milton Friedman’s works!

Phelps, winning the Prize in Economics because of it, introduced and expected-augmented Phillips curve. It basically says that while the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment rates still hold in the future, when inflation expectation change, the whole curve will shift. Or, in other words, inflation (or rather, monetary policy) does not affect the real economy in the long run.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — Please refer to the following table:

Employment
2008 3rd Quarter
2008 4th Quarter

2008
2009 1st Quarter
Total Labour Force
(‘000)
11,123.4
11,170.8
11,028.1
11,208.5
Employed (‘000)
10,779.7
10,819.8
10,659.6
10,757.8
Unemployed (‘000)
343.7
351.0
368.5
450.7
Unemployed Rate
(% of Labour Force)
3.1
3.1
3.3
4.0

[Employment (Updated 30 June 2009). Department of Statistics of Malaysia. Accessed July 21 2009]

Categories
Economics

[2026] Of a step forward with thousands to go

Liberalization is on the move. Yet, the move hardly deserves to be called a liberalization effort.

Notwithstanding how truly free the local economy is, the federal government led by Barisan Nasional is finally addressing the shortcomings of affirmative action as practiced in the country. The past few weeks have seen the kind of market liberalization that one cannot imagine to be even possible before 2008. The much debated equity ownership quota imposed on public companies is now finished.

It is likely that the BN federal government was forced to address the issue. More than anything else, the Najib administration is a pragmatist concerned with its survival. One cannot be deluded into believing that the administration is doing this out of conviction to the idea of liberty.

Affirmative action was one of several major contentious issues in the 2008 general election. Both its basis and implementation suffered from relentless heavy attacks during the election campaign.

The result of the last general election suggests that the attacks were successful. Those attacks eroded popular support for the policy, even among the groups that it was supposed to benefit.

That and coupled with existing market forces that are always ready to rebel against top-down approaches, liberalization seems inevitable in retrospect. The unpopular centrally planned policy based on ethno-nationalism is now indefensible in a concrete sense. The anti-affirmative action movement has done a remarkably good job at demonstrating why it is indefensible.

As a result, no longer are the weaknesses of the affirmative action an abstraction appreciated by the critical-minded and the well-read individuals only. Many among the masses are convinced that the policy is morally and economically unacceptable. So strong is the anti-affirmative action current that BN cannot support the policy, or at least in its present form, any longer if it is concerned with its chances in the next general election, which must  be held before 2013.

Individuals belonging to the tradition of classical liberalism are generally hostile to the policy. Malaysian affirmative action is a case of government intervention. The policy spreads the tentacles of the government across the landscape to limit essential freedom that individuals and firms require to maximize their welfare. It is one more constraint to adhere to, increasing the cost of doing business.

The quota-based policy worked in the past because other factors outside of Malaysia compensated for its cost. Not too many countries had a good transportation and communication system along with a sufficiently educated workforce previously, especially before the 1990s. Some others like China meanwhile were excessively hostile to the concept of private property despite the fact that right to private property is the non-negotiable basis for a prosperous society. Options for investment in an increasingly globalizing world were limited.

That is no longer true today. Factors that made others unattractive for investment purpose are largely gone. This reduces, if not eliminates, many advantages that Malaysia had over others in the past. With a more competitive environment, the policy of affirmative action stands out as one of several major structural barriers that are handicapping Malaysia vis-à-vis other economies.

For Malaysia to move forward, it is exactly the kind of structural reforms like the recent liberalization on equity that is required.

Classical liberals — libertarians — are savoring this moment after years of living through suffocating government intervention. In times when many governments all around the world are enforcing their influence in the market, it is refreshing to see the government in Malaysia retreating.

Still, one has to be mindful that the recent effort at liberalization is largely confined to restrictions traditionally associated with Bumiputra policy. The government has its hands in too many aspects not just in the market but also in the lives of private citizens.

The recent fiscal stimuli based on government spending are proof that the dream for a free market is still far in the distance.

Even as the 30 per cent Bumiputra quota is liberalized, another quota, albeit less restrictive, is set in place.

In the background, the availability of government-linked companies continues to crowd the market. These entities utilize unfair advantages that no true private businesses can have. These GLCs are monopolies. With excessive market power, it kills entrepreneurship, one of the factors that keep the free market as a system superior to any other.

Meanwhile, prices and supply control regimes are still in place to distort signals in the market in the name of welfare, discouraging the development of an adaptive culture in favor of a static one.

There are other examples that affirm the illiberalness of the Malaysian market.

Hence, there is no time to rest. The pressure for greater freedom has to be applied continually. The Najib administration is one point up but it will have to suffer more criticism.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

First published in The Malaysian Insider on July 3 2009.

Categories
Economics

[2024] Of stimulus may be hurting recovery

I am holding the view that the RM67 billion government spending-based fiscal stimulus as announced will not be helpful. The market will show a swing independently of spending.

The swing is already happening in spite the fact that government spending has been insignificant so far. Furthermore, the magnitude of government spending is pale in comparison to the drop of external demand. If there is to be any recovery, it will be driven by external demand, just as the recession has been caused by external demand. All this makes the government spending-based stimulus irrelevant.

Due to temporal issue between the effectiveness of the spending and market cycle, when proper recovery takes places, private firms will suffer from crowding out effect since the stimulus is financed through local sources. Interest will have to go up higher when compared to a situation where there the size of government spending is absent.

Well, I might be wrong. My position is too kind. There is a piece yesterday that may indicate that the stimulus is hurting recovery:

GEORGE TOWN: Penang’s electronics industry is facing a shortage of production workers after orders started to pick up early last month, according to a job outsourcing company.

The problem is compounded by local workers who prefer to enrol instead in the government’s retraining scheme where they are paid more, said Inter Resources Consulting Global Search (M) Sdn Bhd managing director Michael Heah.

He said locals were not keen to work long hours in factories for RM500 to RM600 a month, preferring the retraining scheme for unemployed graduates and retrenched workers where they were taught new skills and received a monthly allowance of between RM500 and RM800. [Penang electronics firms unable to cope with demand. The Star. July 2 2009]

Firms are actually competing — gasp! — with the stimulus package for labor, making them incapable of meeting demand in the short run.

How is that for a stimulus?

Worse:

Heah said the electronics industry started to recover last month with the semiconductor and consumer electronics sector stepping up their recruitment drive to get more locals to fill vacancies.

”To make matters worse, the intake of foreign workers has been frozen. We appeal to the Government to lift the freeze in the sector,” he said. [Penang electronics firms unable to cope with demand. The Star. July 2 2009]

Unless productive firms can find individuals that are not enrolled in the retraining program, they will need to raise wages.

I am a fan of raising wages only to accommodate inflation, to compensate improvement in productive for the labor factor of production or competition from firms for labor.

I see none of those here. That potential raise of wages may be caused by distortion created by the government, more than anything else.