Categories
Economics WDYT

[2881] Guess the 4Q18 Malaysian GDP growth

The Department of Statistics will be releasing the 2018 fourth quarter GDP statistics tomorrow.

I was wrong about expecting the 2018 third quarter GDP growth to quicken based on the faster consumption growth. Consumption growth did rise spectacularly and as stated earlier, there was no austerity. But external pressures prevented overall GDP growth from going off.

But I will repeat myself. I think we have hit the trough in the third quarter and so, we should see a rebound. Trade balance in the fourth quarter expanded slightly unlike in the previous quarter when it contracted. At the same time, consumption should grow healthily (in fact, stronger versus historical standard) albeit at a slightly slower pace. Meanwhile, pressures faced by the agriculture and the mining sectors should moderate.

But enough of me quacking.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy expand in 4Q18 from a year ago?

  • Below 3% (4%, 1 Votes)
  • 3.0%-3.9% (22%, 6 Votes)
  • 4.0%-4.5% (37%, 10 Votes)
  • 4.6%-5.0% (33%, 9 Votes)
  • 5.1%-5.5% (4%, 1 Votes)
  • 5.6%-6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • More than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 27

Loading ... Loading ...
Categories
Economics Environment

[2880] Is McDonald’s no-straw policy in Malaysia credible?

I rarely use plastic straws for my drinks. I am not religious about it but if I could help it, I would avoid it. I think I started doing so since at least 2010-2011, partly to allay my guilt for breaking a rule I made up when I was in college: use less paper. That is not something easy to do out there in the working world.

But reduce plastic straws is way easier than reducing paper use.

But in the past year or so, I have noticed that it is becoming a trend in Malaysia to reduce straw usage, at least in the greenwashing corporate social responsibility kind of way (don’t get me started on CSR and the tax system).

I figure it might have something to do with a video of a poor turtle having a tough straw stuck in its nostril. The footage showed volunteers struggled to pull the straw out, bleeding the turtle in the process. The turtle seemed healthy afterwards. I would, if I had a piece elongated plastic stuck up my… erm… nose. Wouldn’t you?

While the internet is a powerful tool to spread lies and conspiracy theories of no sense (like how the Ministry of Finance for somehow is banning private companies from handling haj, which is patently untrue), I suppose there are times when it is a tool to do good. Like the no-straw fad.

At McDonald’s several months back, the fast food chain ran a campaign to reduce straw use. When I first noticed it, I gave it a thumb up. But after a while after understanding the new way they give out the straws, I suspect its campaign is utterly counterproductive. Why? Because instead of reducing use, it has the potential to increase its usage instead.

Previously before McDonald’s ran its campaign, straw dispensers were placed in the dining area where customers could take the straws freely. Freely, but usually the number of straws taken would match the number of drinks. Those who would not use straw would simply not take it.

Now, I have noticed McDonald’s have removed the dispensers. What happens now instead is that the persons behind the counter preparing, serving or delivery the meals would automatically place straws into the meal tray regardless whether the consumers would want it. No question asked.

As a result of this change in method, my use of straws at McDonald’s has increased from none to at least one.

I could say no and ask the person behind to counter to take it back, but the whole procedure adds a process that makes the default position as having a straw. Ironically, the previous default position (as in the presence of straw in the tray) before the no-straw campaign began was not straw. The nudge economics here is messed up that it goes against the campaign: it encourages straw use instead by setting up a new barrier to having no straw.

One of those nights when I got off work late, with weary eyes and empty stomach at KL Sentral, I would have no mood to say, “Oh hello, sorry, I do not need the plastic straw.” I would like to just eat and go as quickly as possible. Damn the straws. I would not use it, but it would in the tray and it would go to the trash regardless of use. And this is a person who default position was no-straw: I am now encouraged to use the straw.

Now, imagine those who do not even think of not using the straws. The default yes-straw position just discourages them from not using straws. Or in other words, the default position encourages them to keep the status quo of keeping on using straws.

The economist in me wonders, how much straws are being used now versus before the campaign started. My hypothesis is, ironically, probably more just because of the change in the default position.

In absence of data, I would think to make the no-straw campaign credible, I feel McDonald’s should probably revert to a no-straw default position. That is, do not give the customers straws, unless requested.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — I have received several feedbacks stating one of two cases: they agree with me about yes-straw default position being practiced, or that they contradict me by stating they would have to request for straws at the counter. Quite possible that some branches are tighter than others with its straw-dispensing default procedure. My personal experience at 3 branches (2 in KL and one elsewhere) is that of the former case.

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2876] Guess the 3Q18 Malaysian GDP growth

The Department of Statistics will release the third quarter GDP figures on November 17. To celebrate…

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy expand in 3Q18 from a year ago?

  • Below 3% (11%, 1 Votes)
  • 3.0%-3.9% (22%, 2 Votes)
  • 4.0%-4.5% (22%, 2 Votes)
  • 4.6%-5.0% (33%, 3 Votes)
  • 5.1%-5.5% (11%, 1 Votes)
  • 5.6%-6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • More than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 9

Loading ... Loading ...

Before you play the game yet again, here is some background.

The 2Q2018 GDP grew slowly at 4.5% YoY, largely due to an unexpected major gas supply disruption in west Malaysia. The relatively weak growth was enough for many economists to lower their expectations for Malaysia’s 2018 growth rate. The necessary repairs will take time and supply disruption will likely last until early next year. This can be seen from the industrial production index, where the mining component has been declining since May, diverging away from the other components.

And then of course, there was a change in government, which had affected public procurement policy, with major cleaning-up exercise relating to overpriced megaprojects. There had been some public spending slowdown due to the need to recalibrate everything towards a more transparent system, which means the use of open tender throughout the government system. But things are picking up again. More importantly, there had not been any austerity despite loose talks to the contrary. The recent budget should be proof enough.

Meanwhile, strong consumption expansion had hit the trade balance by a bit: for the third quarter, trade surplus did shrink by 4.1% YoY. But with the sales & service tax back online in September, the surplus ballooned RM15.3 billion as imports dropped amid rising exports.

But the unexpected economic stimulus the economy received in the form of 3-month tax holiday from June until August should more than balance out the supply shocks. Consumption should be expanding stronger than it did in it did in the second quarter, which was already growing at an above average rate of 8.0% YoY.

Categories
Economics

[2875] There is no austerity in Malaysia

The term austerity is gaining currency in some Malaysian circles. The press and several brokers have mentioned it to describe what they think the Malaysian government is doing in light of various renegotiation or cancellation of megaprojects.

Austerity is a sexy term to pull in some eyeballs but really, I think the term has been used rather loosely to a point that it is inaccurate enough and starts to lose its meaning.

So what is austerity? How do we define austerity?

The first pass-definition should be an overall cut in absolute government spending. In other words, austerity happens when the government runs contractionary fiscal policy. A slowdown in government spending growth itself is insufficient to qualify as austerity. It has to be a cut in spending itself.

The refining factor to work with the first-pass definition is a significant tax hike that discourages spending and contributes to economic contraction. For those with knowledge in macroeconomics, I am thinking of a simple shift to the left in the IS curve in the IS-LM framework, which results in economic contraction.

Yet another refining definition is if these two contractionary policies – reduced government spending, higher tax or both – happen during a period of economic contraction. In tighter language, austerity is when fiscal policy works pro-cyclically during a downturn.

In Malaysia so far, that has not happened. Neither fiscal policy and the economy are in contractionary mode. Public data shows January-August government spending increased by 6.1% this year versus the same period last year. For the May-August period, government spending rose 1.1% YoY. From GDP perspective, public investment and spending rose in the first half of 2018 versus the first half of 2017. Meanwhile, the economy expanded 5.8% and 4.9% in both nominal and real terms in the first half of 2018 versus the same period last year.

And we must not forget, Malaysians received a significant tax cut in the form of 3-month tax holiday and the replacement of value-added consumption tax GST with the less burdensome production tax SST.

Meanwhile, the government has made public statements that Malaysia is not embarking on any austerity program, although it has committed itself to cleaning up its accounts due to years of off-budget abuses and opaque dealings.

Under this situation of continuing economic growth, public spending expansion and the absence of a tax hike, I think it is clear there is no austerity in place.

The truth is, many of the renegotiation and cancellation do not lead to absolute cuts. Rather, the changes are there to make way for other spending that are aimed to be more productive than, for instance, merely servicing overpriced debt for financially and economically unsustainable megaprojects negotiated incompetently by the previous corrupt government.

What is happening is a reallocation of resources. Not absolute cuts. Definitely not austerity.

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2873] Guess the 2Q18 Malaysian GDP growth

I have been extremely busy and I have just realized the last time I updated this blog was just slightly more than 3 months ago.

I still want to keep this going, except this time, no real commentary. But the second quarter was quite a quarter, externally and especially domestically. These events had added significant short-term uncertainty that might have affected growth.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy expand in 2Q18 from a year ago?

  • Below 3% (8%, 1 Votes)
  • 3.0%-3.9% (8%, 1 Votes)
  • 4.0%-4.5% (23%, 3 Votes)
  • 4.6%-5.0% (38%, 5 Votes)
  • 5.1%-5.5% (15%, 2 Votes)
  • 5.6%-6.0% (8%, 1 Votes)
  • More than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 13

Loading ... Loading ...