Categories
Economics

[1236] Of bad pay hike to ruin the civil service

When a disgustingly overweight person gluttonously swallow a plate for four, it is only right for a doctor to kindly advise the person to slow down and go on a healthier diet. It would be almost sinful if the doctor kept his wisdom to himself. In the same light, it is almost sinful not to criticize the Malaysian civil service for going on an unhealthy diet of salary increase.

I believe that I speak within the same wavelength with many others when I say I would like to see a respectable civil service. I would like to see a civil service that creates envy among those not on its payroll. I would like to see a civil service that attracts not contempt but admiration among the public.

The Malaysian civil service could do just that by raising wages and benefits within the institution as well as downsizing. One of two components of the policy has been exercised this week. Unfortunately, it has not been done properly. When the Prime Minister announced the pay hike, it is not a step forward but instead, it is a step backward.

High wages, given proper condition, is a tool to attract the best talents into any organization. Furthermore, wages reflect productivity and productivity between individuals might differ. Hence, there should be variance among wages when productivity levels differ, vertically as well as horizontally. In order words, wages increase across individual of different productivity level should not be uniform, horizontally or vertically, unless productivity itself is uniform.

The hike recently declared by the Prime Minister is clearly being executed without respect to productivity. It seems that everybody is being rewarded equally horizontally and thus, it does not discriminate high and low productivity individuals. Therefore, its carrot and stick model lacks the stick while everybody gets a carrot. In short, the policy is blunt.

While that method might reward deserving individuals with wondrous work effort, it also rewards under-performers. If an organization rewards low performance — as much as high productivity workers, no less — the better workers would sooner or later realize that one would get the same rewards with less effort. Thus, given time, the average productivity would fall toward the lowest point.

This undiscriminating reward system requires resources and the over-generous act of rewarding everybody requires tremendous resources. Scarcity unfortunately is real. Nobody needs an economics degree to know this, save, maybe, the communists. Eventually, there will be insufficient resources to sustain the over-generous model. This unsustainability will bring the civil service back to square one: low paid public sector. Moreover, it prevent the introduction of competitive salary levels across similar productivity levels needed to attract the best talents available.

If the civil service aspires to be the employer of last resort, then the over-generous model might work marvelously well in its favor. As an employer of last resort, the civil service would prefer quantity to quality.

For a respectable civil service, the model must reward performers and punish slackers. What the civil service needs is a proper carrot and stick model. Reward the able, sack the slackers and through this, stop being an employer of last resort. I say it again: increase the salaries within the civil service to competitive market rate and downsize. The civil service must get on a healthier diet.

In the final analysis, the recent hike is a perfect example of blunt and poorly designed policy. Blunt policy, including blanket fuel subsidy among others, creates unintended and possibly adverse consequences. This blunt policy of unselective wages increase in the civil service without attention to productivity in particular will create adverse unintended consequences that will further lower the standard of the Malaysian civil service.

Blunt policy might help the Prime Minister winning an election but it is not good enough to build a better society.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — I might have unwittingly given the impression that productivity is the only determinant of wages. I apologize but I do not imply as such. Just to clear the air, there are other determinants of wages. One of them is scarcity of skills.

Categories
Economics Environment Humor Politics & government

[1228] Of too witty to be serious

Panda Kong:

Copyrights by The Economist. Fair use.

Roar!

IF THE guest list determined a meeting’s value, the Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and America on May 22nd would be a roaring success. Almost half the Chinese cabinet is trooping to Washington, DC, for the second of the twice-yearly discussions, conceived by Hank Paulson, America’s treasury secretary, between the world’s largest economy and its fastest-growing one. The process was designed, in large part, as an antidote to the latest case of Asiaphobia among America’s politicians. [America’s fear of China. The Economist. May 17 2007]

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — also at The Economist:

Conservationists—and polar bears—should heed the lessons of economics.

[]

One reason for this taxonomic inflation is that the idea of a species becoming extinct is easy to grasp, and thus easy to make laws about. Subspecies just do not carry as much political clout. The other is that upgrading subspecies into species simultaneously increases the number of rare species (by fragmenting populations) and augments the biodiversity of a piece of habitat and thus its claim for protection.

In the short term, this strategy helps conservationists by intensifying the perceived threat of extinction. In the long term, as every economist knows, inflation brings devaluation. Rarity is not merely determined by the number of individuals in a species, it is also about how unusual that species is. If there are only two species of elephant, African and Indian, losing one matters a lot. Subdivide the African population, as some taxonomists propose, and perceptions of scarcity may shift. [Hail Linnaeus. The Economist. May 17 2007]

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1226] Of Wolfowitz to quit

It is only right:

Paul Wolfowitz is to quit as president of the World Bank following a bitter promotion row involving his girlfriend.

After lengthy talks with the bank’s board, Mr Wolfowitz said he would quit the global lending body on 30 June.

He had faced widespread calls for his resignation after being accused of a conflict of interest over a pay rise given to ex-bank employee Shaha Riza.

The White House, which had backed Mr Wolfowitz, said President George W Bush reluctantly accepted his decision. [World Bank head Wolfowitz to quit. BBC May 18 2007]

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — some of us are still waiting for Anwar Ibrahim to explain his involvement.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1223] Of Malaysian budget in May?

Man. It is just May and the Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcob has already mentioned the “b” word.

KUALA LUMPUR: Budget 2008 will hand out more benefits to wage earners, Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop said.

He said the Government would ensure that the prices of common consumer items would be affordable and not burden the lower-income segment of society. [Budget 2008 benefits to help lower-income group. The Star. May 16 2007]

This talk of a people’s budget so soon publically is weird. For goodness’ sake, we have not even past the second quarter yet. Talk about forward planning!

Maybe it is a sign that election is coming?

Categories
Economics

[1218] Of time for a rate cut?

An article in the Business Times today states that inflationary pressure has subsided:

INFLATIONARY pressures in Malaysia, which have abated since oil prices settled, are expected to subside further this year, say economists.

The economy is unlikely to experience strong cost-push inflationary pressures like that felt by consumers last year when pump prices were hiked following a spike in global crude oil prices, they said. [Rupa Damodaran. Inflationary pressures in Malaysia seen weakening further. Business Times. May 14 2007]

This might signal a possibility of a rate cut some time soon. In fact, there are at least four factors that might make interest rate cut favorable.

One is low inflation as mentioned in the article. Having an inflation-fighting policy when inflation is weak is kind of harsh.

Two, real interest rate is nominal rate minus inflation. Falling inflation, given constant nominal rate causes real rate to go up. Higher returns, in turn, encourages saving, discourages spending or investment, ceteris paribus:

”If real returns continue to swell, we fear it would have some dampening effect on private consumption spending, a trend that may go against the move to spur private consumption,” he added. [Rupa Damodaran. Inflationary pressures in Malaysia seen weakening further. Business Times. May 14 2007]

Further, higher real returns might have caused greater demand for Malaysian bonds:

There was a strong buying interest in the local government bond market last week, especially from offshore parties, which caused yields to fall quite significantly.

[”¦]

Week-on-week, the three-year and five year benchmark MGS fell 24 bps and 25 bps respectively to close at 3.18 per cent and 3.19 per cent.

Meanwhile, the 10-year lost 26 bps to close at 3.47 per cent. [Strong buying interest in govt bonds. Business Times. May 14 2007]

A rate cut would cause real returns to go down and reverse the carrot and stick model, spurring more robust economic activities.

Three, the ringgit is at a nine-year high.

KUALA LUMPUR, May 14 (Bernama) — The ringgit closed higher against the US dollar Monday to hit a new nine-year high since 1998, supported by continued inflow of funds and strong trade surplus, dealers said. [Ringgit Ends Firmer Against US Dollar. Bernama. May 14 2007]

Appreciating ringgit hurts Malaysian export. Strong ringgit makes Malaysian goods more expensive to buyers that uses other currencies.

Four, an expected economic slowdown later this year. Anticipating a slowdown, a rate cut could spur investment and thus possibly stopping an expected slowdown dead on its track.

For recording purpose, below is a table reproduced from Business Times:

Copyrights by Business Times, Malaysia. All rights reserved. Fair use.

The Malaysian equivalent of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Monetary Policy Committee will meet on this coming May 28.

I, of course, prefer the market to set the rate instead of a central bank.