Categories
Kitchen sink Politics & government

[422] Of Screenshots and a conspiracy theory

Some time last week, Jeff Ooi, one of Malaysia’s foremost blogger, got into trouble. He was not the source of the turmoil but rather, the source was an unsavory comment left on one of Screenshots’ entry, Jeff Ooi’s blog that, as some would say, degraded Islam.

A pro-government national paper caught up the news and sent a pretty calm crowd to indulge in a massive session of duckspeak. Shortly afterward, somebody in Ministry of Internal Security said that the Internal Security Act (ISA), an act that essentially allows detention without trial, could be utilized against the author of Screenshots for instigating racial harmony. While this happened, support for Screenshots was mounting from the blogosphere. Some of the support came as far as the other end of the planet. The famed Slashdot posted something on this too. Reason is, if ISA were used, the freedom of speech is being threatened yet for another day. More importantly, if a blogger is going to be arrested under ISA, it would be an unprecedented move in suppression of free speech. Well, not unprecedented. China has done that.

Luckily, the hoo-ha died out but, I notice something else.

Take note that, all the while this all happened, Screenshots was and still is rallying for a fundraising effort. In particular, observe at the figure of the fund. The fund was first officially announced by Screenshots on September 27th this year. The intention was probably first brought up on September 21st or earlier. Now, bear with me while I puke out the boring details.

Around the same day that the comment that caused the uproar was made, which was September 30 — of which I believe the water was still as calm as Lake Tahoe — the fund stood at RM818.68. A day later, the fund grew almost 100%; to be precise it was at RM1570.96.

Screenshots usually receives a lot of visitors per day by some standard. I would say the average, discounting the absolute maximum was around 3500 visitors. This rough estimate could be easily obtained from Screenshots.

Two days later, the fund stood RM0.69 short of RM2000.00. On the same day, the number of visitors was significantly different from the Screenshots’ average of visitors for about 30 days. It was approximately 9000 visitors though I don’t know whether that 9000 represents 9000 unique people. From my experience, the counter that Screenshots is using doesn’t differentiate the same IP after some period of time. However, assuming that the 9000 visitors are indeed unique and on average, there are 3500 unique visitors, with the difference from the average and the actual visitor on each of those 30 days is less than 1000, 9000 is absolutely big and unusual. Screenshots refers to that 9000 as abnormal traffic. More data here.

On October 2nd, Screenshots was brought to national attention. With this, it is sensible for anybody to expect a spike in the number of visitors and this definitely explains, as a statistician would say, the error in the statistical model, if a statistical model were to be constructed. On the normal curve, that abnormal traffic figure will be at the very end of one tail (well, not really at the end of the tail for the mathematics junkies but you get the idea. The t-test is huge.).

Then the fund lingered at RM4181.61, another 100% increase. Looking back in time, that is a 400% increase from September 30.

According to Screenshots on September 5th, the number of visitors was greater on September 5th than the day before. As of today, the fund grew by about 50% to RM6779.37.

Now, there is a relationship with the number of visitors and the number of fund though my professor always asserts correlation is not causation. But if a statistical model were to be constructed, I strongly believe there will be a strong positive correlation between the two variables. More importantly, I don’t think anybody needs any lesson in econometrics to realize good marketing brings large customers and large customers translate to large sale. In this case, large contribution.

Now, consider a conspiracy theory.

Let’s say Jeff Ooi knows this. Also, let’s say Jeff Ooi has a friend at Jalan Riong (the location where the national paper resides in the real world. You see that something outside the window? That’s the real world. And no, not MS Windows you bastard, the window!), of which I am sure he does; a little bird at the very least.

Now, let’s think. Does it make sense for a national paper to care so much for the blog that, that particular national paper ran an article concerning that blog on the front page?

Rayden would say, I don’t think so. Well, it is possible for a blog to get onto a national paper, as proven by Instapundit. Instapundit got onto the New York Times but it was hardly in the front page. I mean c’mon, front page? Don’t you have any other f-news? If Harakah did it, it’s understandable but Berita Harian? Dude, you need to uphold some of your reputation! (I’m not saying that Berian Harian has a lot of reputation to start with.)

A part of my want to say, some little bird at Jalan Riong wants to help Screenshots’ fundraising effort. So, a little publicity doesn’t hurt, especially when the firm at Jalan Riong is one of the most influential (despite being excessively biased) media in Malaysia.

Either that or the people at Jalan Riong hate Screenshots so much that they really are trying hard to pin Jeff Ooi down to the ground, which seems to be apparently true and would probably explains the front page. Pure hatred is strong enough a reason to verify the front page.

If latter is true, then the plan is backfiring. Instead of pinning Screenshots to the ground, it only helped the fundraising effort by at most 720% increase from RM818.68.

Oh, well, met my academic advisor yesterday. She asked me whether I have anything after graduation or not. I said not yet. She then said, if you want, you could take a class in the B-School next semester. Sounds like a good plan for me. Maybe I could even convince my parents to sponsor me into B-School. But in any case, if I still can’t find anything, I’ll stay in school for one more semester. Graduating in December is boring anyway. It’s too cold and too early to graduate.

And yeah, the last time Minnesota met Michigan, Minnesota faced a rheumatic arrest after seeing Michigan rallying from a loss to a win in the fourth quarter. Tomorrow, Minnesota (ranked #13, one rung above Michigan) will get a heart attack immediately in the first quarter.

Go Blue baby!

p/s – I meant cardiac arrest, not rheumatic arrest.

Categories
Photography

[421] Of Sobe (or else, photoblog V)

It takes a nation of lizards to hold us back.
– one of the phrases on one of Sobe bottle caps.

And screw my I’ll-post-an-image-once-in-two-days. I can’t find any good shot (n00b level if you are wondering) in two short days.p/s – Evhead is leaving Blogger behind. Thanks for everything dude.

Categories
Photography Travels

[420] Of photoblog IV

Trees are the earth’s endless effort to speak to the listening heaven.
– Rabindranath Tagore

My eyes caught sight of one particular tree somewhere in Los Angeles. It was a moderately huge tree with extremely odd but beautiful roots formation. I hate Los Angeles. Perhaps, the only thing that I like about it is this tree, and a few other things.

p/s – unbelievable goal!

Categories
Environment Humor Politics & government Sports

[419] Of the Russian ratification of the Kyoto Protocol

Today is Thursday, September 30th, 2004. A day that, in my humble opinion, should be called the Kyoto Day.

The Russian cabinet approves the Kyoto Protocol today, barely a few hours ago, blowing life and even extra strength to the once-zombie international treaty on climate change. With Russia backing the Protocol, a legacy of the Earth Summit, the quorum needed for the Protocol to come into force is met.

This victory, the one that might change the fate of our home and us as a species, is probably one of the most important achievements in human cooperation. With such unison, surely pressure will be mounting on the next President of the United States, whoever it might be, to give Kyoto for another thought.

As this great development happens in Moscow, Lieberman and McCain have been continuously working on a bipartisan effort to push for the Lieberman-McCain Climate Stewardship Act in DC. The act seeks to introduce capping and trading of greenhouse gasses emission which in general is similar to part of the idea in the Kyoto Protocol. I can proudly say that I and a few others have written a snail mail petition to Michigan representatives Carl Levin and Deborah Stabenow to urge them to support the act a few weeks ago via Environmental Defense. So far, though support for the act has been steadily gone up, it still shy a few votes from being passed. The proposal will be brought back to the Senate floor soon for another voting.

While the east coast is stuck with red tape, California reaffirms itself as the most political green caucus in the United States. Earlier, California passed the world’s toughest emission regulation and later claimed to be an global warming free-zone (though I think that term is by far is ridiculous but hey, we got what we want. I’m won’t complain too much on the so-called global warming free-zone.) Under the regulation, cars and trucks need to cut their emission by 25 percent while SUV must cut 18 percent before 2016 and it must start as soon as 2009. The auto industry has called this stupid but I say they have gotten off the hook long enough. It’s time they face the music.

At the same time, San Francisco, one of the hotbeds of US environmental movement, plans to reduce 2.5 million tones of carbon dioxide emission by 2012. It is believed that New York would follow the lead soon. How soon is yet to be seen but nonetheless, the snowball effect is taking shape. With enough momentum, hopefully, the Senate won’t be able to refuse their responsibility to reduce the six greenhouse gasses.

These are exciting time for the advocates of Kyoto Protocol. I myself am very excited. Barely a few years ago, things were gloom right after the US removed itself from the treaty and then calling others to do same. Australia joined the US, Canada almost. But now, it’s time we call the US and Australia to reverse and ratify Kyoto.

The European Union must be commended for having a hand in Russia’s change of heart. Without the EU, it would not be possible for Russia to ratify the treaty and in turn, it would be impossible for the Protocol to come to existence. Possibly, there would be less time for us to act against the mistake of our parents.

The initial stage has now been set. It is a high time to call in the developing countries, especially China en India, to join in the fight. It’s time to rally to world against what might come in the future.

Now is the exact point in time where we must redo what the Russians had done; they repelled Napoleon, resisted Hitler. We must confront the accelerated climate change.

p/s – an advertisement has been running on the TV for quite sometimes now. I first saw it during the Michigan – Notre Dame game. It is one of the coolest ads I’ve ever seen. Make sure to beef up the volume.

Categories
Photography Sports

[418] Of a loss in Munich

Ajax was beaten flatly by Bayern Munich, courtesy of a Dutchman. I had thought we stood a chance by the way we played against Juventus. I guess we didn’t. I wish Koeman had played 4-4-3 instead of 3-4-3. I wish Zlatan was with us.

Ajax would probably be in the UEFA Cup soon.

It feels like winter today. With the loss and the winter, tomorrow sets to be gloomy.

I saw the tree above against the blue sky last Sunday by the river Huron. It was a good day and I was in a good spirit.I wish tomorrow to be as bright as it was in the summer. I don’t mind the heat. The cold reminds me of how I hate the winter.

I wish the trees could stay green just a little bit longer. I wish the cloud could stay white for one more moment. I beg the sky would stay blue for just another day.

Cut the chatter, Red 2.