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Remember a couple of weeks earlier when ReCom.org was hacked?
Well, it happened again. This time however, the webhost has suspended ReCom.org’s account. The account has been suspended since the day before yesterday. I’m not sure when the account will be reactivated but certain individuals within ReCom.org are trying to work it out before August 20th. Wish them luck.
Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza is a mixed signal at best. The return of Gaza to the Palestinian authority, prima facie, is a good development for those that long for peace worldwide. However, web spun by reality is a tad more intricate than simple arithmetic.
First on the line is public perception. Is the withdrawal really a step taken towards peace or is it due to pressure applied by the Palestinian extremists. If it is wholly attributed to peace, then it is something to be celebrated by everybody. Perhaps not by the groups that opposes the pullout but sacrifice needs to be made. If terrorist pressure is the cause, then it is something the Palestinian and Muslim extremists to celebrate.
In truth, I suspect Ariel Sharon is accounting for both factors. He himself has said, this withdrawal will increase Israel security. In context of the two factors, withdrawal improves Israel’s reputation to the world audience and more importantly, to moderate Palestinian. A pullout also reduces the possible conflicts in Gaza.
Yet, many has stressed that Gaza is a start, not the end. That comment comes after one of Ariel Sharon’s top aides in an interview with a local paper said that the pullout from Gaza is a plan to freeze the peace process and in effect, the creation of a Palestinian state. After all, the pullout is unilateral. And moreover, Gaza is minute compared to the West Bank while West Bank, in particular Jerusalem, is the ultimate goal of both sides.
And then, there are fractions in the Israeli Knesset. Though Ariel Sharon is administering the disengagement plan, he is at the wimp of the Israeli majority and the majority, or at least a very large minority does vehemently disagree with Sharon. Several high ranked officials have resigned in protest of Sharon’s policy. One of them is Benjamin Netanyahu – former prime minister and until recently, former finance minister of Israel. Many perceive that Netanyahu is set to go again Sharon for the top post. If Netanyahu once again becomes the prime minister, Gaza disengagement be the end or even undone given his opposition towards Sharon’s plan.
The motives of the disengagement supporters are also in question. As mentioned earlier, Sharon’s top aide has mentioned that this is a plan to freeze any peace talk with the Palestinian and hence, put a stop, or at least delay, the establishment of the Palestinian state. If this fraction gets what they want, the disengagement plan will prove to be ultimately detrimental to Palestinian ambition.
Already, this pullout has bolstered the position of Jewish groups that are against any pullout plan, even more when it concerns the West Bank. In fact, Israel, while is engaging in this disengagement, plans to expand Jewish settlements in the West Bank despite criticism from the EU and the US. It is all too possible that this is a move to placate the Jewish right.
There are however representatives in the Knesset that are motivated towards a true peace and the coexistence of Israel along with a free Palestinian state. That cannot be denied. With respect to this group, Shimon Peres is someone to be admired of.
Finally, this disengagement has already been criticized as mere facade. Once the Gaza pullout is done, Israel still control services in Gaza – ranging from water to electricity to transportation.
But despite all the variables, perhaps the most crucial element here is the assumption of good faith. That assumption is so important that without it, nothing will work regardless of the simplicity or the complexity involved. Without trust, everything will crumble.
This applies to everybody, even those couch potatoes that live thousands of miles from the conflict. Including certain sadist and biased Malaysian bloggers that laughed whenever a Jew is slaugthered.
Whoa. I’ve just found out that out there in the jungle, rumor is out and about that Wal-Mart is trying to take over Carrefour. Both giants have denied the rumor, however.
Imagine what kind of giant would be born if that rumor were true. Wal-Mart, already the world’s largest company, buying out French giant Carrefour – that’s just unfathomable. What would be more unthinkable is that a French company is being bought by an Uncle Sam Arkansas-based retailer.
But if it were true, the marriage would offer a huge economies of scale to Wal-Mart. That alone would render other competing retailers as ants waiting to be squashed upon.
Thank goodness all these are mere hearsays. Else, the next time anybody goes to Paris, they would need a Wal-Martian visa.
I poked my nose in lowyat.net a few hours ago. To be exact, being the political animal that I am, I browsed their real world issues section. Interesting stuff is being discussed over there, especially about religion. Unfortunately, the discussion is massive and I simply lack the will to read all of it. A few skips and hops later, I ran across a topic on global dimming.
I’ve read about that phenomenon before in the papers and at realclimate.org but never quite understood it. So, I had put it at the back of mind so that I may check it out sometimes later for better comprehension. I never did that until I saw the posting at lowyat.net. So, I did a little online research on it. Soon, I started to wonder, is there a relationship between global dimming and the haze?
Hmm?
Global dimming got the attention it deserved after the September 11 attack. Almost all aircrafts were grounded for a few days and the sky was free from steel flies for the first time in decades. It was during this time that scientists observed a minor increase in daily temperature variation.
Now, after being four years in Michigan, I do think Kuala Lumpur is extremely hot. But, after I crashed into DAP’s little sedated protest that were full of police officers, I got engaged into a conversation with a stranger.
Like all people, when there is nothing to talk about, they talk about the weather. And goddamn, we did exactly that. He said that that day, Kuala Lumpur was less hot than usual. I didn’t agree with his statement but already dazed with the haze along with the fact that I didn’t know him, I would rather be agreeable rather than starting an awkward moment by second guessing him.
Right now however, I think he was right. Yet, by eyeballing the data, it doesn’t seem like it.
I visited Weather Underground and went straight for Kuala Lumpur’s reading for August for every year beginning at 1998 and ending at 2005. If you do want to eyeball the data or even conduct a complete analysis, the data is at 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005.
If you did a complete analysis, do give me a howler. What you should be looking for is a decrease in temperature variation to link dimming to the haze (the idea is, the haze blocks the sunlight and hence, reduces the average temperature during the day and increases the average temperature during the night).
For warming, it’s a general rise in temperature, naturally but this should be a secondary objective.
I can’t see any change in variation or even a rise in temperature though the rain does give me a problem. I simply can’t observe the real effect by having the ceteris paribus rule being violated. I suppose I could do a difference-in-difference analysis but I’m far too lazy for real econometrics at the moment.
I have however sent an email about a possible link between the haze and global dimming. I extremely look forward for a reply from them.
For an introduction to global dimming, Wikipedia is an excellent choice.
I woke up on Saturday and saw an alert on global warming:
After correcting for the mistake, the researchers obtained fundamentally different results: whereas Spencer’s analysis showed a cooling of the Earth’s troposphere, the new analysis revealed a warming.
Using the analysis from Mears and Wentz, Santer showed that the new data was consistent with climate models and theories.
“When people come up with extraordinary claims — like the troposphere is cooling — then you demand extraordinary proof,” Santer said. “What’s happening now is that people around the world are subjecting these data sets to the scrutiny they need.”
USA Today also reports the same thing. On a related subject that came up a few days ago:
Summers in European cities have grown up to 2.2 Celsius (4.0 Fahrenheit) hotter since the 1970s and global warming may cause ever more sweltering temperatures, the WWF conservation group said on Thursday.
Do I hear a naysayer? Wake up already. With this, I do hope the world can go beyond Kyoto and something more effective, backed with sterner but sensible action.
Regardless, the monster haze is sparing Kuala Lumpur today.
Compare that to similar shots taken three days ago.
This is definately a relief though I think I’m having a fever due to my singing in the haze yesterday.
p/s – Heh. Indonesia wants Malaysia to pay for oxygen produced by Indonesian forest in reaction to DAP’s demand for compensation (via). That’s the spirit…
In all seriousness, this shows how porous the nation state’s border is, considering all externalities, jokes aside.
pp/s – Heh. I have a sweet idea how to handle that suggestion.
Let’s assume all public spaces are privatized, including the atmosphere and the ocean and hence, Indonesia would be able to charge Malaysia for Indonesian oxygen utilized by Malaysians. However, assume that all nation states in this world are able to monitor their borders and have full knowledge of what crosses their borders.
Now, it’s safe to say that oxygen produced by Indonesia, or as a matter of fact any gas produced by anything that is owned by anybody, knows no boundary. Ergo, each year, countless Indonesian oxygen crosses into Malaysia illegally. Therefore, we should sue Indonesia for failing to prevent Indonesian oxygen from reaching Malaysia and hence, forcing Malaysians to breathe Indonesian oxygen!
If this is nonsensical at best, idiotic at its worst, that Indonesian engineer should have known better. Unless of course, if we were to privatize everything, it would be a different story altogether.
ppp/s – my goodness, Indonesia actually refuses Malaysia and even ASEAN’s help! What is wrong with the Indonesian government? Just accept the fact that you can’t effectively act within your own domain and desperately needs help!