Author: Hafiz Noor Shams

For more about me, please read this.

Categories
Politics & government

[693] Of Kedah’s Chief Minister and a threat to the spirit of the federation

Kedah’s Chief Minister resigns today. With that, the current acting Chief Minister is expected to be “appointed” as the new Chief Minister by the Prime Minister. My question is, since Malaysia is a federation, why should the new Chief Minister need to be chosen by the federal government instead of being elected into office by the people of Kedah?

Of course, one could say that it’s representative democracy; just as Malaysians don’t elect our Prime Minister directly, Kedahans don’t get to elect their Chief Minister directly too. But let’s face it, if the Prime Minister doesn’t approve, there’ll be problem even if there’s popular support.

The case is not limited to Kedah. Selangor’s Chief Minister himself was chosen into office by the federal government and wasn’t elected by the people of Selangor. The same case goes for Sabah – remember the cyclical premiership?

The only few exceptions to this in recent time are Kelantan since the early 90s and Terengganu in 1999. In both cases, a nutty opposition was in power.

It’s no accident that all the states with its Chief Minister appointed by the federal government are states controlled by Barisan Nasional, which is the ruling coalition. Does this look like BN is violating the principle of federation and decentralization? Though the division between state and federal power is still largely intact, if things don’t change, BN will overrun the spirit of the federation. Hell, BN’s already on that by emphasizing August 31 more than September 16.

Just to note, decentralization is part of green’s principles.

Categories
Economics Science & technology

[692] Of Finance Ministry, lies, damn lies and statistics

Yesterday in the Malaysian Upper House, the Malaysian Finance Ministry Parliamentary Secretary was reported of saying that “ringgit is relatively stable compared with the currencies of Malaysia’s major trading partners after the government removed the ringgit peg on July 21.”

More:

Hilmi said that since the transition, where the ringgit exchange rate was determined by market forces, the local currency had risen compared with the euro by 11.9 percent, yen (9.7 percent) and between 0.2 percent to 7.7 percent compared with regional currencies.

“After the depeg and up to Nov 30, the ringgit has increased compared with the US dollar by 0.6 percent to RM3.7783,” he said in his reply to a question posed by Senator Datuk Seri Lam Kang Sang at the Dewan Negara sitting, here Tuesday.

Hilmi said that the ringgit also rose compared with the euro by 3.8 percent and yen by 6.7 percent and mixed against regional currencies.

The funny thing is, while what he said is true, somehow, I feel that he has conveniently omit what’s going on in December 2005. For this month, the ringgit is growing weaker against:

USD

Yahoo! Fair Use.

EUR

Yahoo! Fair Use.

JPY

Yahoo! Fair Use.

SGD

Yahoo! Fair Use.

United States, Japan and Singapore are the top three major Malaysian trading partners.

From the graphs, capital flight is apparent.

Earlier last month, I realized that Malaysia seems to have a negative real interest rate. Soon after, Bank Negara raised Malaysian nominal interest rate up to 3%. At 3%, I feel the real interest rate is still negative. Another rate hike is a must for Malaysia to have positive real interest rate given that inflation is above 3%. A positive real interest might stop and reverse this December’s run.

Unless the Bank Negara increases the rate and in turn, halts this gradual and minor capital outflow, I would hardly call ringgit as stable.

p/s – Chinese statisticians say: Whoops. We forgot to add USD280 billion into our 2004 GDP. With that corrected, we just want to say that we’re the sixth largest economy in the world.

Others: Ack! You forgot USD280 billion? (Malaysian estimated GDP for 2005 according to Wikipedia is USD290 billion)

pp/s – SuprNova.org, the site that I depended on many things fun before it was shut down, speaks.

Categories
Economics Environment Politics & government Science & technology

[691] Of worst floods, rice and climate change

Northern Malaysian states on the Malay Peninsula are suffering the worst flood in 30 years . It has been raining like crazy. Even in Kuala Lumpur, located hundreds of miles south, it’s been raining like cats and dogs. I’m surprised that the city hasn’t experience any flood.

The sky is starting to remind me of Ann Arbor; I could hardly see the sun everyday. Southern Thailand isn’t spared too. If borders are drawn with a huge pen, the floodwater would’ve erased them with ease. After all this, the weather still won’t relent.

The Weather Channel. Fair Use.

As you can see, it won’t end soon. Also, check out a current tropical storm that will hit Vietnam anytime soon today.The floodwater, among other things, affects rice harvest in Malaysia. Paddy fields are devastated by the overflowing water. This is especially bad considering that northeast Malaysian states are the main rice producers in Malaysia and that the fields are scheduled for harvest in this coming January. Looks like the rice industry will have to import more rice soon. I doubt local fields will be able to provide the share it usually offers to the market.

Worse, it isn’t just Malaysia that will suffer shortage of rice. Vietnam, which is one of the largest rice producers in Southeast Asia, suffers the same situation. Prices of rice in Southeast Asian markets should go up in the near future given that supply has been cut.

Digressing, price of chicken has gone up by 20 sen. Earlier, I had predicted a price decrease due to bird flu. Unfortunately, while playing around with the demand curve, I’d overlooked the supply function. The hike in chicken prices, ignoring inflation, could be due to the culling of chickens in Asia. With this flood, price could go up further, assuming demand curve is constant.

Though heavy raining this time of the year is typical in this part of the world, this year, the amount of rainfall is above average. Consider also the current situation in China and Japan – record breaking snowfall – and Vietnam – also record breaking rainfall. Finally, keep in mind that 2005 is, according to World Meteorological Organization, the second hottest year on reliable record.

Climate change? Too soon to ascertain but it’s good to keep the possibility in mind.

p/s – Kristof versus O’Reilly. Fight! This is the best yet since Bush versus Kerry.

Categories
Economics Politics & government Society

[690] Of Bolivia, coca and cocaine

Very soon, the Bush administration might have another source of headache. Bolivians have just elected a socialist and an ally of Venezuelan Chavez as President. Some have gone farther and declared that this is Washington’s nightmare.

Bolivia Elects a President Who Supports Coca Farming

By JUAN FORERO
Published: December 19, 2005

LA PAZ, Bolivia, Dec. 18 – Evo Morales, a candidate for president who has pledged to reverse a campaign financed by the United States to wipe out coca growing, scored a decisive victory in general elections in Bolivia on Sunday.

What interest me the most about Morales is that he’s a former coca farmer.

Coca could be processed into cocaine. During the US War on Drug, the US had aggressively conducted coca eradication in Bolivia. Coca eradication continues even today. But not for long it seems.

Furthermore, Morales’ party, Movement to Socialism – scary name by the way – has its origin as a coca interest group. Given the US hostility towards coca farming, it won’t take a rocket scientist to predict what Bolivia’s foreign policy will look like.

But what will happen to coca plantation? Will there be an expansion? If yes, would there be an increase of cocaine in the world market?

I think yes.

p/s – Boris tagged me but I’m being rather uncreative at the moment. But I’ve thought of one. I love old weird nationalistic songs. Currently, I can’t get Ca-na-da, a song popular in 1967 celebrating 100 years of confederation, out of my head. The song could be heard at Expo 67. Found it while looking for Malaysia Forever, another nationalistic song sung in 1963 in Malaysian Singapore if I’m not mistaken.

So, one down, four to go.

Categories
Sports

[689] Of from seventh to fourth and on fire

Ajax won 2-0 against NAC. That’s three consecutive victories in the Eredivisie. At the same time, excessive good luck brought Ajax from the seventh place to four.

On the same day Ajax faced NAC, all Ajax’s nearest competitors ate too much grass and hence, allowing Ajax to march on. The sweetest is, of course, Feyenoord’s loss to ADO Den Haag! Seeing Feyenoord losing to a team that sticks at the bottom is even better than seeing Manchester United failing to progress beyond Champions League’s group stage.

Another much needed good news is Rosenborg. He seems to have found his form, scoring three goals in the last five matches. It might be too soon to celebrate but if Ajax has found its striker, the world will tremble.

Currently, AZ Alkmaar sits on top of the table, sharing points with second placed PSV. Feyenoord’s third and Ajax, as mentioned earlier, up in fourth.

All in all, this revival looks good. w00t!