Categories
Economics

[1550] Of a weakness of universal healthcare program

While it broke the then political noise level some weeks back, discussion on welfare state never took off in a satisfying manner. PAS was the one that rolled the ball but apart from rhetoric and how Islam advocates a welfare state, actual details have been sparse and it is unclear how much thought has gone into the proposal. That notwithstanding, an idea of a welfare state almost always involves an establishment of a universal health care program to at least provide subsidized health care to all citizens. While the goal of universal health care is noble, it is not necessarily the perfect or even a desirable policy, with all things being constant.

Again, the goal of the policy is admirable. It is really hurtful to witness sick individuals unable to gain access to drugs or health facilities because he cannot afford it. Kantian categorical imperative may work to force us to provide the needy individuals with help. Universal health care policy provides us with just the tool we need to answer our conscience and absolve our guilt by doing supposedly the greatest good for the greatest number of people. Categorical imperative or not, validly utilitarian or not, it is wise for us to take a step back and consider a weakness of universal health care program — by implication, welfare state as well — before we jump off the ledge into a possibly 10 feet deep dry pool.

Universal health care does little to encourage healthy behavior. The rationale behind this relates to one essential lesson in economics: people respond to incentive, perverse or otherwise. Smoking is a clear example of this.

There is a number of health risks associated with excessive smoking of tobacco. With a universal healthcare system in place, smokers do not have to overly worry about treatment cost. This takes away the disincentive to smoke. Indeed, smokers do suffer when their health is adversely affected but they do not terribly suffer due to availability of modern and effective subsidized or even free treatments. Pain is a strong incentive to stop smoking and universal health care takes away that incentive.

In many cases, it may already be too late for those that have finally paid the price. The younger generations on the other hand have the opportunity to learn from others’ past mistakes. The availability of a free health care system however fails to emphasize the adverse effects of smoking and so, offers limited lessons to learn from. When the young observe that their elders do not suffer too much from smoking, they recalibrate the weight between gratification from smoking against its associated future increased health risks. These rational individuals do so because the welfare state policy encourages them to favor enjoyment derived from smoking and discount the associated health risks.

Such system is often funded by public resources. Riddles of high maintenance cost await a system that happily provides free treatments but falls terribly short in preventive measures.

In purchasing typical health insurance, one of few questions that affect premium calculation revolves around tobacco: do you smoke? If the answer is yes, the premium would go many notches up to match uncertainty — or really, increased certainty — linked with smoking. In a system which the risk cannot be compensated, it will struggle to keep up with demand in the long run and somebody will have to pay for it. When the giant collapses, I pray that I will not be there.

A compulsory health insurance scheme may partially solve that problem but that involves coercion. As a libertarian, I do not favor it. Besides, not everybody requires the kind of insurance offered by that scheme.

Admittedly, scenarios involving tobacco smokers in a universal healthcare system is somewhat specialized. There are individuals that suffer diseases right from birth and their behavior may not be adversely affected by a universal health care. Yet, there are other cases that run parallel with smoking such as over-consumption of sugar or cholesterol and crucially, those cases illustrate how skewed cost and benefit created by a universal health care system adversely affect judgment and only to eventually undermine the system itself.

Lesson?

A universal healthcare system, much like other welfare state policies, does not target the root cause of the problem. In hope to achieve immediate good rather hastily, it distorts incentives and causes greater problem in the future. Is that the kind of system worth investing in?

Categories
Politics & government

[1549] Of dissolution of the Parliament

According to Reuters, the PM has obtained consent from the King to dissolve the Parliament:

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 13 (Reuters) – Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has received consent from the country’s king to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections, a source close to the prime minister said on Wednesday.

Separately, an aide to the premier said Abdullah would hold a news conference later on Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. local time (0430 GMT), though he declined to give further details [Malaysia PM to call for snap poll Wednesday. Guardian. February 13 2008]

Further:

KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) – Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has called for a news conference at 12.30 pm at his office in the Putrajaya administrative capital, state-owned Bernama news agency said Wednesday.

Abdullah is widely expected to announce the dissolution of parliament to pave the way for elections to be held next month, said political commentators. [Malaysian Prime Minister calls for news conference at 12.30 pm. Forbes. February 13 2008]

Let the game begins.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — somehow, all this feels trivial:

“The PM actually wanted to dissolve parliament next week but the Agong (king) is leaving overseas this evening for a private holiday, so last night he (the prime minister) changed his mind,” the source said. [Malaysia PM to call for snap poll Wednesday. Guardian. February 13 2008]

Categories
Economics

[1548] Of superlatives for Exxon and GM

By recording USD40.6 billion profit, Exxon achieved the best ever result for the whole history of the US. GM on the other hand recorded the largest ever loss in the history of the US by losing USD38.7 billion.

Hmm…

Categories
Photography

[1547] Of look, up in the sky…

Wow. Monday blue took a deeper dip than usual after a long holiday and I am starting to miss my weekend already. My mind seems stuck at the performance on last Friday evening.

Some rights reserved. By Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams

And no, that is not a balloon. In Walloon maybe but you are not a loon. What the hell am I writing, eh?

About the performance, if I understood the theme correctly, the sphere is a cocoon. There were 7 spheres and there were 7 persons inside it. The whole show seemed to tell a story of birth and in the end, independence. Or maybe it was just about how we all are tied together to a common destiny. Or metamorphosis.

Categories
Economics

[1546] Of 40% better sir?

Punching bag of the day:

PENANG: Malaysians from all walks of life are better off now than four years ago.

Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop said the country’s per capita income had risen by 40% between 2004 and 2007, from RM15,819 (US$4,163) to RM22,345 (US$6,452).

“If we compare in terms of US dollar, the per capita income has risen by 55% during the period due to the depreciation of the dollar against the ringgit. [Malaysians better off than four years ago. The Star. February 10 2008]

I am not so sure how the Finance Minister gets the 40% increase. I approximate that there was a 13% real increase in GDP per capita instead.

I did my own calculation and using approximated figures, I estimated that Malaysian GDP in real terms has increased approximately 20% since 2004. Remember, these are based on approximated figures and this reminder is especially important when the official GDP for Q4 2007 has yet to be release. It is expected to be release no later than February 29 2008 but the Finance Minister probably has access to such information regardless. The population sizes are approximated figures as well. Still, a 40% increase sounds awfully high.

One could get to a higher figure if the MYR is converted into USD (without considering purchasing power parity). In USD terms, there was an increase to approximately 31% in GDP per capita. If one reconverts the USD figures into MYR using 2007 nominal exchange rate instead of using the rate corresponding to the respective years, one will get 31%. This may correspond to the Minister’s 55% figure.

It is worth noting that the 31% and 55% figures are meaningless as a measure of well-being because most Malaysians do not earn in USD and spend in MYR. Instead, they earn in MYR. This makes the 13% and the 40% figures more relevant than the same figures read in USD.

I constructed the table below to summarize what I am trying to highlight.

Some rights reserved. By Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams.

For the full version of the workings, you may download it here.

Tony Pua is right about we would need to grow about 12% per year to get the 40% figure.

To achieve 40% growth, Malaysia must be growing in excess of 12% per annum. Hence, to grow by 40% over 3 years, with a population growing at just under 2% per annum, that will actually make Malaysia the fastest growing economy in Asia, outstripping even China and India. [Malaysian Income Rose by 40% over 3 years? Philosophy Politics Economics. February 10 2008]

I have included his 12% scenario into the calculation in the file if you are interested in it.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — Could it be possible that the Minister included inflation in his calculation? If so, we need a GDP deflator. Or nominal GDP as data instead of real GDP. Or inflation rate.