Categories
Politics & government

[1746] Of Hadi for PM?

Joke of the day:

Dewan Ulama head Datuk Mohamed Daud wants party president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang to become the Prime Minister if Pakatan succeeds in forming the new Federal Government on Sept 16. [Ban gaming and drinking joints: PAS Dewan Ulama. Sylvia Looi, Clara Chooi. The Star. August 14 2008]

Assuming that The Star reported this accurately, I think PAS are going over their heads. Maybe, they have been drinking a tad too much?

PAS are definitely  still grappling with the fact that they are now the most junior member of the Pakatan Rakyat.

But if PAS are serious, to signal my disapproval of the proposal, I would rather have Abdullah as PM. Heck, I would rather be in Avril Lavigne’s concert!

Categories
Education Society

[1745] Of quid pro quo for an egalitarian society

Ethnic integration does not top my list as an issue we as a society face. I used to be bothered a lot by it but I have long learned to accept the wisdom that birds of the same feather tend to flock together.

More importantly, I have accepted that organic integration is a painfully slow process. This effectively means the idea of Bangsa Malaysia for me remains a dream in the near future. Nevertheless, if indeed ethnic integration is a goal, then I think the special rights enjoyed by the Malays as well as the vernacular schools would have to go.

The idea of Bangsa Malaysia has never been satisfactorily and properly defined. What exists are competing definitions. For me personally, I take Bangsa Malaysia — or the Malaysian nation and not the Malaysian race — as simply the concept of rights egalitarianism embedded in the idea of Malaysian citizenship. That means the state does not discriminate its own citizens on anything except, mostly, merits.

I do not have to demonstrate about how large a role race and religion play in our society and I think a lot of us realize how central race and religion are to our society, for better or for worse. While I have resigned to the fact that it takes years to restructure our society organically, I still despise how race and religion are exceptionally central to our society and how both factors have been manipulated to the effect that they erode liberty.

As a result, a tiny insignificant part of me wants to throw liberty out of the equation and use coercion to encourage integration, to do away with factors which encourage ethnic division in this country. Part of me wants to hasten the integration process, preferring an inorganic method over organic.

But I am a libertarian and I am proud of it. I plan to neither resort nor consent to forced integration or assimilation. For others without libertarian tendencies and who are fiercely working for a more integrated society, coercion through the elimination of public funded vernacular schools and streamlining the education system with just one national school stream may indeed be a tool of great use.

Embracing the concept of rights egalitarian would be the first step in encouraging ethnic integration. Any policy which discriminates people based on creed and skin color only fuels anger of the discriminated against the favored. As long as the hatred is there, ethnic integration will be a pie in the sky.

Equality has the greatest potential in dousing the fire of communal hatred. Within the Malaysian context, this calls for the dismantling of various policies which discriminate our own citizens. It goes as far as requiring the Constitution to be amended to conform to the spirit of rights egalitarianism, where all are truly equal before the law which is ever conscious of individual liberty.

The dismantling of discriminatory policies, however, will not be popular with the majority power, which is Malay. In as much as the Malay community is not monolithic in its political outlook, considerable members of the Malay community do hold dearly to policies which grant them special privileges. The continuous support which UMNO receives from a majority of Malays proves that.

Due to that, removal of policies derived from the New Economic Policy will be highly unpopular. As a direct result, the political support for a rights egalitarian society may not be there. If equality of rights is a goal to be achieved, it is the Malays that the advocates of egalitarianism need to convince, especially in the illiberal democracy that we live in.

The first step in convincing the majority is an exposition of the weaknesses of the current race-based affirmative action policies and juxtaposing it with a better merit-based alternative. The majority has to be persuaded that if the majority of Malays are really poorer than the average Malaysian, a merit-based affirmative action would aid them anyway. Therefore, there is no reason for those who truly require aid to worry about the switch from a race-conscious to race-blind and merit-based policy.

I have come to believe that this is the strongest point that exists against the status quo. It is so because it appeals to the concepts of justice and fairness apart from being an economically superior policy compared to race-conscious affirmative action.

Theoretically, it is impeccable and I have seen it work in practice, especially during the election. This very line has been used from time to time. With patience and good orators at hand, many Malays who are genuinely concerned with the welfare of impoverished Malays are convinced by this point.

That notwithstanding, I personally do not subscribe to any kind of state-based affirmative action. A merit-based policy nevertheless is a potent tool to bring down the current policy; my support for a merit-based over race-based policy only exists due to the virtue of thinking on the margin.

But why should only the Malays sacrifice their position?

I am convinced that rights egalitarianism is one of few ideas that is capable of bringing this country forward. It is one of those abstract developments that this country needs more than physical developments. Our current societal structure is not conducive to attracting talents and egalitarianism — as well as liberty — is one of our best bets to catalyze our economy forward, which at this point, is stagnating.

So, I tend to think that this is not a zero-sum game. Rights egalitarianism has the prospect of increasing the economic pie but while the point is taken but a lot of Malays seem unconvinced about why they should give up their privileges.

It is possible that this is a matter of time horizon. While it is beneficial in the long run to have an egalitarian society for everybody, in the short run, the Malays really do not have the incentive to give up their privileges. This is even more so when there is a heavy discount on future gains.

This sounds like a bias called loss aversion. To explain the phenomenon slightly deeper, loss aversion describes a situation when a person considers a loss as unacceptable even when there is an eventual net gain.

This bias later transforms the original question into “Why should the Malays sacrifice their position while the rest have everything to gain?”

Failure to answer this question may cause the Malays to question the sincerity of others in building a less ethnic-conscious society. I think I can safely say that the conservative Malays see vernacular schools as the special privileges of others as how others see affirmative action enjoyed by the Malays as special privileges.

I have been thinking and I do not pretend I have given it very deep thought but my initial feeling is that the abolition of vernacular schools funded by public money could be the answer to that question.

This absolutely makes sense if we return to the original intention of ethnic integration. This is also important to demonstrate to the conservative Malays that there is sincerity in building unity among various communities. There are Malays whom distrust calls for equality because of the question. A sacrifice by the other sides do a lot in proving the sincerity in building an egalitarian society and thus renders the question irrelevant.

One cannot expect to have an integrated society when children are not given the opportunity to mingle with their peers of different backgrounds. Vernacular schools, be they Chinese, Indian or even schools like the Malay College, work like silos, isolating children in the same community from one another. It is the silo nature of vernacular schools that is detrimental to the idea of ethnic integration.

Surely separation from the very beginning does little in bridging the gap that already exists between cultures. If bridging the gap is truly the goal, then the silos have to be removed and replaced with the grand mixer that is the national school. Concerns about languages and religions, which are the typical criticism directed at the idea of national schools, could be addressed by making language classes available and making the national school neutral of religious influence.

All in all, in the abolition of both Malay privileges and vernacular schools, there would be a quid pro quo arrangement, solving the question of “why should the Malays sacrifice their position while the rest have everything to gain?” It gives the appearance that both are sacrificing something in the name of unity.

On a final note, I want to reiterate that I do not consider ethnic integration a burning question. With regards to school systems, I prefer the concept of charter schools to typical public-funded ones, which schools are given the liberty to do whatever they like as long as they deliver results. With a charter school system in place, it would be likely that the abolition of vernacular schools would lead to merely a change in label, which would render abolition meaningless.

Abolition furthermore seems to be an act to force individuals into a system with the system trying to mold an individual with a template. That disturbs me.

Thus, my agnosticism to abolition. And since I am agnostic to the idea of ethnic integration anyway, preferring to take the time to organically integrate our society instead, I really could not care less for abolition.

For those dreaming of a rights egalitarian society, however, the proposed quid pro quo arrangement is something for all egalitarians to consider. If the arrangement is rejected, the egalitarians would still have to answer the question why should the Malays sacrifice their position while the rest have everything to gain.

Unless that question is satisfactorily answered, I do not think we can see the rise of a rights egalitarian society anytime soon.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.

I felt the original version does not have a smooth logical transition. This is most likely due to me rushing the article through. Regardless, I have added a sentence or two in this version. In the TMI version, there are  no sentences on sincerity.

Categories
Economics

[1744] Of crude oil prices may not continue to fall for long

Before we get the party going in celebration of falling crude oil prices, beware. This decrease could well be just a pause before prices march to yet another record.

I am suspecting so not because I subscribe to Malthusian logic. Malthusians all over fail to notice that humanity has an amazing capability to adapt. As prices of typical energy rise to a sufficient level, the search and utilization of substitute sources will take place. As a result, the demand for expensive source of energy will fall, bringing along its prices down.

The prices will stay down, given all else being equal, if technological, or rather increase in efficiency in consumption of the energy occurred. Improved efficiency produces a situation where fewer fuel is required for the same amount of production.

I suspect that it is possible that we may be seeing merely a dip in prices of crude oil because I am unconvinced at how the recent fall in prices is caused by structural changes.

On the surface, three factors seem to be causing crude oil prices to fall. They are contracting demand curve probably due to high crude oil prices, appreciating greenback and the slowing down of several world’s major economies. All factors are possibly cyclical and none is structural. When I refer to cyclical changes, I refer to changes in volume and when I refer to structural changes, I refer to changes in efficiency.

The relationship between crude oil price and the health of the global economy is easy to pinpoint.  A slowdown causes demand for crude oil to decrease. While the relationship may well be the reverse, the point is that it is a matter of typical business cycle and has nothing to do with improvement of technology.

The strengthening of the US dollar also has little to do with improvement in technology. To understand how stronger dollar leads to cheaper crude oil, it is important to understand the mechanics that works between trade and exchange rate. Weaker dollar causes cheap export and cheap export causes foreigners purchasing more US product. With weak dollar, the strength of the USD has to return as improvement in net export accumulates capital. If theory does not convince you, then let the number must do the job: the US trade deficit already dropped for the month of June.[1] With stronger dollar and with crude oil priced in riyal or some other currencies, fewer dollars is required to buy the same volume of oil.

Now, the third factor — contracting demand curve — may come closest to encouraging structural changes. The problem is however, I am not convinced that there is a actual improvement in technology. What I see is people using smaller instead of larger vehicles, public transportation, etc. But that is merely temporary lower consumption because once prices become sufficiently low, consumers would abandon small cars and public transportation and anything that only reduce volume of crude oil consumed rather than substituting it.

While there is indeed greater usage of electricity, natural gas and biofuel to replace crude oil, I am unsure how widespread it has been. Besides, the fall in crude oil prices have been too drastic in such a short time that I have trouble accepting the fall is caused by technology.

Why after all the adoption, the decreases in crude oil prices come only now and in such a dramatic pattern? Effects from structural changes should come gradually due to various lags that exist in the real world, not abruptly.

This has led me to speculate that the trend we are seeing is caused by merely and mostly reduction of consumption with little substitution energy consumed as replacement. It is likely that what we are seeing is merely reduction in volume rather than increase in efficiency. If my take is correct, then once prices reached a level somewhere down below, consumption would return to assume its record breaking rise performance which we saw weeks earlier as volume would go up while efficiency level would stay constant. This might be so due to little structural change in the global economy.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly fell in June as exports advanced to an all-time high, offsetting another big surge in oil imports.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday the trade imbalance dropped to $56.8 billion in June, down by 4.1 percent from a revised May deficit of $59.2 billion. It was the smallest deficit in three months and much better than the $61.5 billion deficit Wall Street had been expecting.[June trade deficit shrinks as exports climb. Martin Crutsinger. Associated Press. August 12 2008]

Categories
Politics & government

[1743] Of political competition for better institutions

Unity is a popular concept nowadays. It began with the Malay unity talks and in response to that, M. Kulasegaran of the DAP called for Malaysian unity talks to bring the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat together. How close is still unclear.

Meanwhile, the harsh bipartisanship that exists at the moment has prompted fears that this country is falling apart and real issues are not being addressed. All that, however, is nonsense. The political competition we are seeing today is one of the few good things that have happened to this country in a long time.

The uncertain political climate brought about by the ongoing political competition has been cited every now and then as being detrimental to economic growth. I agree with this premise to some extent but that does not necessarily make me wish to turn down the volume. On the contrary, I am excited to witness this chapter of Malaysian history.

Opinion on whether this uncertainty is unfavorable really depends on the time horizon one wishes to adopt as a frame of reference. In the short term, the political uncertainty caused by various factors — from allegations of sodomy and the Altantuya trial to political defection — does indeed shoo away business. The simplest indicator would be the Composite Index. Each time another factor amplifies our political scenario, the Composite Index takes a nosedive.

Looking beyond the hills, beyond instant gratification and beyond quick bucks, what we are experiencing provides us with the best chance to improve our institutions, from the courts to the legislature and to the executive branch of our government. A chance to fix our institutions is a chance to take our economy to greater heights. Laid out in front of us is a rare opportunity to fix our illiberal democracy.

We Malaysians have proven our capability at building skyscrapers, dams, bridges and cities out of nowhere, though cracks do emerge from time to time. At this juncture, I do believe we are in need of abstract rather than physical developments. Among these abstract developments is the strengthening of our institutions.

Strong institutions are an important check-and-balance mechanism and its importance is self-evident. Strong institutions enable the state to play out its foremost function and that is the protection of individual liberty. Strong institutions keep the state honest and true to its citizens.

A strong government, however, has no incentive for such a mechanism. History has proven this; after years of having a strong government, this country has seen its institutions weakened and subservient to the executive. If this country had continued to see a strong government, the chance to fix our institutions would be delayed further into the future while the decay continued.

That has slowly eroded credibility in our institutions as their independence has been continually suppressed for political purposes. As a result, trust in our institutions is probably at its lowest point ever. The civil service, for instance, once the pride of this country, is now a laughing stock.

This is especially worrying if the judiciary is involved. If the system is perceived as incredible and not neutral, it would be incapable of dispensing justice in the eyes of the public. Peaceful arbitration would be hard to achieve and might even give rise to a culture of vigilantes with gross disregard for the rule of law. Having that happening would be far worse than going through whatever we are experiencing at the moment.

This scenario may suffer from a little exaggeration but the first sign of trouble and the rationale for vigilantes is when the citizens themselves begin to frequently question rulings passed by the courts, believing that the institutions are unable or refuse to do their job.

Contrary to strong government, a small government does not have the power to undermine various public institutions such as the courts even if it wants to. A small government, in fact, gives a chance for these institutions to regain their independence once robbed by the executive.

The current political competition also puts pressure on these institutions to become more neutral, as they should be. Whereas once our institutions under strong government had only one political master to answer to, now the monopoly of power is broken.

With stronger institutions, people would have greater confidence in doing business in this country because they know that their rights would be secured. Corruption could be weeded out and this would bring the cost of doing business down as individuals feel empowered with credible public institutions. The improvement and newly rebuilt trust in these institutions could be one of those structural changes which would only benefit us.

To achieve that possibility, it is imperative for us to continue to fuel the flame of bipartisanship. Let the politicians squabble and continue to weaken the government. I am more interested in the rejuvenation of our institutions.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.

Categories
Liberty

[1742] Of thoughts on mob rule, the police and MP Zulkifli Noordin

PKR is a confused party. I have refrained from visiting the subject for the longest time because I thought I have proven my points and the other side have proven theirs especially with the coalition PKR brought together as the result of the March 8 Malaysian general election. Today, MP Zulkifli Noordin from PKR just proved my point again and I just have to say I told you so.

I was not surprised when I found out that a mob forced a forum held behind closed doors to an abrupt end.[1] It is clearly a transgression of liberty in form a tyranny of the majority. For this reason, I am long not a fan of unconditional democracy. Majoritarianism is the purest form of democracy and it does not guarantee liberty. And this was demonstrated on Saturday.

After all, this is not the first time a mob overcame a group of individuals’ liberty. There is a trend here to be seen here.

I am also not surprised at how the police handled the situation. In an illiberal democracy that we live, I have lost trust in the police. I view them with embedded prejudice and I am incapable of holding a neutral view of the police anymore. The reason is simply because the police are uninterested in protecting liberty.

I am holding this view because I have experienced how disinterested the police force was in protecting my liberty against transgression by foreign citizens. When the Olympic Torch passed through Kuala Lumpur back in April, I went out to protest how the PRC handled protesting Tibetans. In the process, citizens of People’s Republic of China used mob power to silent me, pushing me around and the police did nothing despite see what was happening. When a person tried to help me, the person was assaulted by the mob.

The police came in later only to force the assaulted to leave the area while the mob was left off the hook.

The same scenario happened earlier in the morning of the relay day. Several individuals whom protested peacefully against atrocity committed by the PRC government were assaulted by the mob from PRC and police arrested the assault victims, not the mob.

The police was never interested in protecting liberty. The police was never interested in protecting minority rights. The fact that the police could side with foreigners raised in a mostly unfree culture against our own citizens demonstrates how disinterested the police is in protecting individual liberty.

The same case recurred at the Bar Council.

In libertarianism of minarchist strain, one of the primary roles of the government is the protection of individual liberty. Absolution of this responsibility by the state necessarily breaks the link of the state from the individuals of the state, making the state irrelevant and the state has proven to be downright hostile to individual liberty. As such, I have trouble trusting my state.

Moreover, while I do not believe in the law that stifles liberty, it is clear that the weight of the law was not evenly applied on Saturday. The demonstration by the mob was clearly illegal under our illiberal law but yet, the police did nothing to disperse the mob. What the police did was advised the organizer of the forum at the Bar Council to unceremoniously end it instead of providing the organizers with protection. This questions the credibility of the state.

It must be added that the protest against the forum itself is perfectly fine from liberty point of view, regardless of laws set in place. As Thomas Jefferson said long ago, law is often but the tyrant’s will, and always so when it violates the rights of the individual. What is wrong was how a number of protesters prevented others from exercising liberty.

While the transgression of rights by the mob and the failure or refusal of the police to protect liberty are indeed disgusting, all that however does not disappoint me considering how jaded the history of individual liberty is in Malaysia. Might is right in Malaysian culture, contrary to the concept of a liberal democracy in which individual rights are embedded and protected from crass majoritarianism.

What is disappointing is Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s indirect association with the mob. One of its MPs, Zulkifli Noordin actually led the protest. It is comforting that the party has come out and condemned the use of mob rule as well as the MP almost immediately.[2]

But then again, this demonstrates what is wrong with PKR. So engrossed with big tent politics, PKR is all happy to invite anybody into their tent, regardless of philosophies. The party has been successful in practicing big tent politics and the past general election has proven its advocates right. And lately, terms such as “competition of ideas” and “diversity of thoughts” have been adopted within the party to further rationalize the idea of big tent politics.

I am a big fan competition of ideas but my affection for it stops when coercion is used and clearly, threats were issued by the mob. And because of that, I will not miss MP Zulkipli Noordin leading the mob to storm the forum hall at all if he loses the ongoing election petition.[3]

As for advocates of big tent politics however, it has come to a point where big tent politics is threatening to tarnish the party’s relatively liberal outlook.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] At 9.50am, a handful of protesters, led by Kulim Bandar Baharu parliamentarian Zulkifli Noordin from Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), muscled their way to the front of the first-floor auditorium at the Bar Council headquarters in Leboh Pasar Besar here amid an ongoing and lively discussion on the 2006 court case of R. Subashini, whose ethnic Indian husband T. Saravanan had embraced Islam and converted their five-year-old son without her knowledge or consent. [The day the loudest won… or did they? The Malaysian Insider. Debra Chong. August 9 2008]

[2] The People’s Justice Party (keADILan) regrets that the police force present failed to control the situation but instead appeared to collaborate with some of the demonstrators who wanted to force their way into the hall to stop the seminar. This incident reminds us of what happened during the APCET conference on East Timor that was held a few years ago, when members of Umno-Bn forced their way in to sabotage the seminar.

We take serious view of the rough action taken by a small band of the demonstrators who shouted rude and uncivilized language against some of the organizers and participants of the Seminar. We regret that unfortunately the “fiercest” among them was someone known to be a lawyer and member of parliament who pretentiously claimed himself to be “representing all the Muslims”. [Condemning action against Bar Council seminar. Parti Keadilan Rakyat. August 9 2008]

[3] It was a direct reference to PKR’s own Kulim Bandar Baharu MP Zulkifli Noordin who led the protest and the storming of the forum hall here which prompted the police to ask the organiser, the Bar Council, to call off the session only an hour after it started. [PKR condemns protest against Bar Council forum. The Malaysian Insider. August 10 2008]