Categories
Education

[2452] PAGE is statistically wrong

The Parent Action Group for Education (PAGE) is a group known for its strong support for the teaching of science and mathematics in English in Malaysian public schools (the PPSMI policy). Its chairperson Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim argues the serial improvement seen throughout the years of PPSMI is a proof of success. They argue that that improvement is due to the policy.[1]

I am unconvinced that that is the case because such statistics is so raw in its presentation that it does not control for other factors.

How would we know if that improvement was not secular? Students’ achievements have been improving over the years even before PPSMI. It will be wrong to attribute all of those achievements to PPSMI. That factor as well as others should be removed before any reasonable conjecture could be made between PPSMI and achievements that the exams supposedly measured.

After that, how would we know what fraction of the improvement (or indeed even decline given that we only see net result) was due to PPSMI?

Even if all of those are accounted for, these improvements within the interested period are small enough that they are probably within the series’ standard error. In other words, the improvement could simply be some random variation with the mean essentially unchanged.

Consider the following graph I have pulled out from Noor Azimah and PAGE’s defense of PPSMI.

Take the science rural figures. The mean throughout the years is 90.6. The 68% confidence interval is between 88.9 and 92.3. Observe how many data points are within that band. The 95% confidence interval is between 87.2 and 94.1. Remember, this is before secular trend that has nothing to do with languages is taken out.

So, serial improvement as shown by PAGE through various graphs reproduced in Noor Azimah’s write-up does not really answer these questions.

To conclusive answer the questions, one has to compare two parallels, i.e. compare two series — one for PPSMI and another the status quo — concurrently. This will control for many things like grade inflation, secular improvement due to merely better education facility and access and the difficulties of the exam. After controlling all of these things, only then language will be the only factor being tested.

These two series do not exist side by side unfortunately.

The problem with Noor Azimah and PAGE’s argument is that they are comparing something that exists against something that does not and goes on to conclude that one that exists is better statistically. That is intellectual dishonesty.

The fact is there is no statistics to make the relevant comparison possible. Hence, there is no fact to make PAGE’s conclusion possible.

And, lest pro-PPSMI cheer, this is a double-edge sword. The statistics does not say anything about the alternative Malay-policy either.

That is the point however. The statistics does not say anything. PAGE however sees an elephant in the clouds.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
[1] — GMP (Gabungan Mansuhkan PPSMI), led by PAS members is pushing the Government to stand firm on abolishing PPSMI (The teaching and learning of Science and Mathematics in English) yet again, and claiming that only 3% of pupils benefited from PPSMI.

Evidence to support the continuance or abolishment of PPSMI, should be based on the achievements in UPSR, PMR and SPM. That should be the benchmark. The test results of these three national examinations, proved to be very encouraging, clearly supporting the continuance of PPSMI while contradicting all statements that have been brought against PPSMI. [Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim. Pro-English group hits back: Don’t twist the facts for “political expediency”. Malaysia Chronicle. October 29 2011]

Categories
Economics

[2451] Damned if you do, damned if you don’t

The holders of $22 billion in Italian CDS may be growing anxious after receiving news that a 50 percent haircut on Greek debt will fail to trigger a credit event that would force sellers of the swaps to pay out.

[…]

If this failed to trigger a CDS event, many investors may find themselves without protection, potentially triggering substantial and unexpected losses.

More broadly across Europe, DTCC data show that net notional CDS outstanding for France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the U.K. total nearly $100 billion. [Michael McDonough. Efficacy of CDS in doubt. Bloomberg Brief: Economics. October 28 2011]

Categories
Politics & government

[2450] The Commonwealth, the irrelevant

Yet again, an international organization that does very little beats its chest, declaring its self-proclaimed importance to the world. Its members praise the organization for one thing or another. This is the Commonwealth of Nations and it is having its Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Perth.

The truth is that like many other international organizations out there, the Commonwealth is increasingly irrelevant.

Really, what exactly does the Commonwealth do, apart from hosting the Commonwealth Games every four years? And oh, yes, CHOGM too?

The last time it played any significant role was its campaign against apartheid in South Africa. That was almost two decades ago. All other issues after that demonstrated the inefficacy of the organization. It holds no sway on Pakistan. Australia and New Zealand alone can exert pressure on the problematic Fiji and other small Pacific island-states. Corruption? Lip service. Climate change? It did not matter at Copenhagen. Development? The days of the Colombo Plan is long gone. If it has not yet, then it is definitely close to its expiry date. Individual rights? Human rights? Please do not make me laugh.

So, what will be the biggest topic discussed in the latest CHOGM meeting in Perth, Australia?

Numero uno: the line of succession of the British monarchy. Yes. Of all issues bedeviling the world right now, the Commonwealth’s main concern is the line of succession of the British monarchy.

Oh, it will also discuss how to celebrate the Queen’s diamond jubilee. God save the Queen.

Of course, these issues are perfect for the Commonwealth realm. These are issues of great importance to an irrelevant organization. How much more irrelevant can one get?

Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of the biggest democracy in the world, realizes this. He is skipping the CHOGM meeting in Perth, which opens today.

Even the British Prime Minister David Cameron is giving the opening a miss, knowing exactly what and where his priority is at the moment: Europe. This is telling.

Categories
Photography

[2449] A pigeon

Shot a long time ago from an oversized island called Australia. Oh, a continent, I meant.

Some rights reserved. Creative Commons. By Attribution 3.0

You can see the vignette. No, that came straight from the camera, although I did contrast the whole photo up.

Categories
Personal Society

[2448] That fucking two ringgit

She claimed she is a student from Nepal. She approached me, asking if I am one? Many thought that I am still in my teen years, and so that question is legitimate. Those far older than me said I have a young face that does not age. Legitimate or not, I was on guard for deception. Why would a stranger ask me that?

Several exchanges of questions and answers later, it became apparent. She was soliciting for donation. A school in Nepal was building a library. No, it was not a physical library. It was an e-library.

My mind went to work. Why would a poor country like Nepal want an e-library? Why not just have a plain old library? Something did not seem right and I did not really want to entertain her. And if she was being truthful, it would be a stupid project.

I quickly said no to her. Politely of course. No reason for rudeness. She was kind enough to say have a good day to me despite the disappointment. I did not care of her disappointment. I suspected she was lying.

I have had many such encounters and I have mastered the art of saying no firmly. The train of thought ran cleanly to reach a rehearsed conclusion. Suspecting the solicitor was lying made it easier.

Later in the day, I found myself pumping gas into a car that I drove. It was just another day at the gas station until an old Malay man with some white hair probably in his 50s or 60s came up to me. I was listening to my iPod, trying to pass the time as quickly as possible and so, I did not really hear what he said when he came up to me. But he held up his two fingers and then made a gesture toward his mouth and stomach. I understood.

I automatically raised my hand to refuse. It was a reflex honed so well, that I did not think of what just happened. I felt nothing. It was a unthinking reflex.

Now, hours later, a pang of guilt is all over me. My conscience is rebelling, asking what if that was you?

I understand what it means to be hungry. I do not mean voluntary hunger or fasting. Despite what Muslims say of Ramadan, how fasting is meant to empathize the suffering of the less well off, the voluntary (in the sense you choose to adhere to the religious duty; it is a matter of whether you want it or not, not can or cannot) nature of it prepares one’s mind for the hunger.

Real hunger comes not out of volition. Real hunger comes due to circumstances that are out of your control. That happened while I was at Michigan. I was constantly hungry for one reason or another. Sometimes it was the cash, being too thrifty and all. Sometimes, it was the restrictive Muslim diet.

The worst was when I went on without eating for more than 24 hours while hiking deep within the Tuolumne Canyon, in the middle of nowhere. The circumstances were one out of stupidity, but it did not matter how it happened. It happened and that is all that matters.

The pain from hunger along with the exhaustion was unbelievable. I had not felt anything worse before, nor anything worse since. The stomach growled endlessly. The hands would shake in a way that shocked me. It was pain that reduced me to tears, I foolishly hoped those tears would make things better. It did not. Pure will and effort did it instead.

As I emerged from the other side of the canyon, a couple saw the state I was in. They took pity of me and drove me to the nearest food place.

It would be preposterously insulting to compare my experience to that of starvation elsewhere. My hunger then is not comparable to the more serious cases of starvation. Still, what matters is that I remember it.

I had forgotten of that experience until today. That experience replayed in my mind as I drove away from that gas station. He asked for a mere two ringgit to relieve his hunger. I said no.

In the rear-mirror, I saw a dejected face. His hunger looked genuine. Maybe out of the hunger, he decided to sit by the pump, trying not to think of it. My heart cracked, but I did not turn around. I did not notice it cracked.

I drove off and on my way home, I played various scenarios in my head. Was it real? Was he being lazy? Was he just lost? If I had given him the money, would he endeavor to prevent the same misfortune to happen again?

I understand the value of second chance. I had mine, multiple of times even, never mind a second chance happening multiple of times is oxymoronic. But it did happen and I cherished all those chances. I could have given his.

If I had given the money, would he ask for more? Justification after justification ran through my head, trying to calm my conscience down. I told myself, I do it all the time and I hate people monetizing pity. Many beggars purposefully display their pitiful state for many others instead of just investing a little effort to actually work. Real honest work. Observe the pity merchants in Bangsar or in the old part of Kuala Lumpur. The lies of it all.

It is all over the world. I have seen it to not naïvely buy whatever goods the pity merchant is selling. Pity is their business and that business is distastefully despicable.

I used that to starve off the noisy troublesome conscience of mine but it just does not want to keep quiet. It does not because the old man appeared genuinely dejected when I said no. He was not professional beggar. He was genuinely in trouble, hungry. I know he was not a pity merchant. He was real.

With that knowledge, my conscience is using my experience to punish me. The unbearable nagging continues. It is angering that it is continuing on so loudly and consistently.

To hell if the old man would beg again tomorrow till eternity. I do not care how perverse an incentive two ringgit can be to the man. I do not want to think rationally of the consequences. Two ringgit is cheap for a clear conscience. I could have bought a clear conscience. Why did I not buy it? I could buy it with my own.

A lot of others shamefully buy it with others’ money. Yes, they buy it.

I wish I had just given the damn two ringgit of mine to the old man. It is my money and no one else’s. It is my conscience and no one else’s. Fucking two ringgit for a whole lot of trouble is not worth it.

But it is too late now.