Apart from the two buildings on the sides, I like the photo.
I wanted to crop the photo to get rid of the two buildings on the sides but I like the ratio and I want the base to be included. So…
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[2452] PAGE is statistically wrong
The Parent Action Group for Education (PAGE) is a group known for its strong support for the teaching of science and mathematics in English in Malaysian public schools (the PPSMI policy). Its chairperson Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim argues the serial improvement seen throughout the years of PPSMI is a proof of success. They argue that that improvement is due to the policy.[1]
I am unconvinced that that is the case because such statistics is so raw in its presentation that it does not control for other factors.
How would we know if that improvement was not secular? Students’ achievements have been improving over the years even before PPSMI. It will be wrong to attribute all of those achievements to PPSMI. That factor as well as others should be removed before any reasonable conjecture could be made between PPSMI and achievements that the exams supposedly measured.
After that, how would we know what fraction of the improvement (or indeed even decline given that we only see net result) was due to PPSMI?
Even if all of those are accounted for, these improvements within the interested period are small enough that they are probably within the series’ standard error. In other words, the improvement could simply be some random variation with the mean essentially unchanged.
Consider the following graph I have pulled out from Noor Azimah and PAGE’s defense of PPSMI.
Take the science rural figures. The mean throughout the years is 90.6. The 68% confidence interval is between 88.9 and 92.3. Observe how many data points are within that band. The 95% confidence interval is between 87.2 and 94.1. Remember, this is before secular trend that has nothing to do with languages is taken out.
So, serial improvement as shown by PAGE through various graphs reproduced in Noor Azimah’s write-up does not really answer these questions.
To conclusive answer the questions, one has to compare two parallels, i.e. compare two series — one for PPSMI and another the status quo — concurrently. This will control for many things like grade inflation, secular improvement due to merely better education facility and access and the difficulties of the exam. After controlling all of these things, only then language will be the only factor being tested.
These two series do not exist side by side unfortunately.
The problem with Noor Azimah and PAGE’s argument is that they are comparing something that exists against something that does not and goes on to conclude that one that exists is better statistically. That is intellectual dishonesty.
The fact is there is no statistics to make the relevant comparison possible. Hence, there is no fact to make PAGE’s conclusion possible.
And, lest pro-PPSMI cheer, this is a double-edge sword. The statistics does not say anything about the alternative Malay-policy either.
That is the point however. The statistics does not say anything. PAGE however sees an elephant in the clouds.
Evidence to support the continuance or abolishment of PPSMI, should be based on the achievements in UPSR, PMR and SPM. That should be the benchmark. The test results of these three national examinations, proved to be very encouraging, clearly supporting the continuance of PPSMI while contradicting all statements that have been brought against PPSMI. [Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim. Pro-English group hits back: Don’t twist the facts for “political expediency”. Malaysia Chronicle. October 29 2011]
The holders of $22 billion in Italian CDS may be growing anxious after receiving news that a 50 percent haircut on Greek debt will fail to trigger a credit event that would force sellers of the swaps to pay out.
[…]
If this failed to trigger a CDS event, many investors may find themselves without protection, potentially triggering substantial and unexpected losses.
More broadly across Europe, DTCC data show that net notional CDS outstanding for France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the U.K. total nearly $100 billion. [Michael McDonough. Efficacy of CDS in doubt. Bloomberg Brief: Economics. October 28 2011]
Yet again, an international organization that does very little beats its chest, declaring its self-proclaimed importance to the world. Its members praise the organization for one thing or another. This is the Commonwealth of Nations and it is having its Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Perth.
The truth is that like many other international organizations out there, the Commonwealth is increasingly irrelevant.
Really, what exactly does the Commonwealth do, apart from hosting the Commonwealth Games every four years? And oh, yes, CHOGM too?
The last time it played any significant role was its campaign against apartheid in South Africa. That was almost two decades ago. All other issues after that demonstrated the inefficacy of the organization. It holds no sway on Pakistan. Australia and New Zealand alone can exert pressure on the problematic Fiji and other small Pacific island-states. Corruption? Lip service. Climate change? It did not matter at Copenhagen. Development? The days of the Colombo Plan is long gone. If it has not yet, then it is definitely close to its expiry date. Individual rights? Human rights? Please do not make me laugh.
So, what will be the biggest topic discussed in the latest CHOGM meeting in Perth, Australia?
Numero uno: the line of succession of the British monarchy. Yes. Of all issues bedeviling the world right now, the Commonwealth’s main concern is the line of succession of the British monarchy.
Oh, it will also discuss how to celebrate the Queen’s diamond jubilee. God save the Queen.
Of course, these issues are perfect for the Commonwealth realm. These are issues of great importance to an irrelevant organization. How much more irrelevant can one get?
Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of the biggest democracy in the world, realizes this. He is skipping the CHOGM meeting in Perth, which opens today.
Even the British Prime Minister David Cameron is giving the opening a miss, knowing exactly what and where his priority is at the moment: Europe. This is telling.
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[2449] A pigeon
Shot a long time ago from an oversized island called Australia. Oh, a continent, I meant.
You can see the vignette. No, that came straight from the camera, although I did contrast the whole photo up.