the __earthinc

In science, uncertainty is part of the game. This uncertainty is described as error and in statistics, this error is not a synonym for the word mistake but rather, it is a term explaining the precision or accuracy of some measurement.

In matters concerning climate change or global warming, there exists error. In fact, every empirical measure contains error and this is true in proofs that support climate change. The US administration and needless to say, the oil industry however have consistently accused that the science behind climate change as flawed due to the existence of this error. If such reasoning, which claim measurement related to science of climate change is flawed because it has error, is to be accepted, then all sciences should be thrown out of the windows. After all, science contains this kind of statistical error since part of the root of science is empirical measurement.

With such reasoning, even well-known economic theory of purchasing power parity should entirely be discarded into the dustbin.

Regardless of that, it has been more than two weeks since the 10th annual UN conference on climate change in Buenos Aires started. The conference is mostly about how the world should go around after the initial Kyoto round lapses in 2012. So far, the talk has been disastrous and the conference is supposed to end today.

One of the talk’s objectives is to schedule future seminars that discuss possible ways to act after 2012. The US, who signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 but later defaulted on its promise to ratify the international environmental treaty, seems to have successfully prevent any further development that leads to the next stage in fighting climate change. Their reason – it’s premature to talk something that is too far into the future.

I cannot understand the current US administration. Perhaps, its change of heart on the Protocol is comprehensible from economic point of view but its refusal to even discuss on the means that may improve Kyoto is beyond the grasp of the sane mind. It seems that instead of simply disagreeing with the greens, the US current administration is trying to derail the whole concerted effort against climate change.

Amid the talk, it is heartening to hear the states of New England are committing voluntary emission cap in spite of the Bush administration’s policy. From what I read, the state of Washington and Oregon and possibly, the politically green California may join in the voluntary effort to cap carbon emission.

As in right now, the European Union, the main proponent of Kyoto, is trying its best to force an agreement with the US in order to not let this 2-week-long talk passes worthlessly. Apart from the frustrating US stance, Italy has mentioned that it will pull out of the mandatory cap imposed by the Kyoto Protocol after 2012 is done.

China on the other hand has been advised by the International Atomic Energy Agency to increase its energy usage efficiency.

Another nation that came under the spotlight is Saudi Arabia. A Saudi representative uttered the most pathetic comment at the conference – Saudi Arabia wants to be compensated from future drop of crude oil sale that is due to the implementation of Kyoto Protocol. What the Saudi Arabia needs to realize is that every Annex I countries that has ratified Kyoto is sacrificing their economy for humankind’s future. In fact, under the current system, Saudi Arabia doesn’t even have to cut its economic growth. The Saudis are simply being selfish and ridiculous.

And I hope crude oil runs out fast so that Saudi Arabia can be taught a lesson that is as ancient as time – don’t keep all your eggs in one basket; diversify for goodness’ sake.

p/s – this conflicting signal is giving me an headache. Now I want to keep USD in hand for the time being.

“The upgrades reflected the continued strengthening of Malaysia’s external financial position and the resultant, lessened vulnerability to shocks,” Moody’s said in a statement. Malaysia’s “large surplus, together with a higher level of foreign direct and portfolio investment, is bringing about a strong rise in the country’s international reserves.”

There is no need to change Malaysia’s ringgit peg in the next few months, Moody’s analyst Hess said.

“I don’t think there is near term pressure,” Hess said. “Eventually Malaysia will change the peg, but I don’t think it’s going to happen very soon” because “inflation remains low and the downward movement of the dollar means that on the external front the ringgit peg is not a problem.”

pp/s – Ajax will be up against Auxerre! The next stage of the UEFA Cup will be held on February the 26th.

ppp/s – this one Republican doesn’t even know his country’s history. All he knows is that, all Frenchmen are smelly. Make you sure read everything, including the comments.

p^4/s – two hours after this entry was published, a deal between the EU and the US was struck.

The compromise struck Friday calls for a single meeting, in May 2005, as the United States had wanted.

But, in keeping with European wishes, the meeting will last several days, and the future of climate change negotiations will be up for discussion.

Ah well. At least something.

p^5/s – added RealClimate under Frequent. Found it through WorldChanging. It’s rather enlightening. Removed explodingdog.